“EPIC CATASTROPHIC” FLOODING FROM HARVEY

The tragedy in Texas has grown worse, and this is only day two.  There were 1000+ Water rescues overnight. Fatalities from the flooding have already occurred. The National Weather Service issued this grim statement this morning:

“Epic catastrophic flooding has occurring in and around the Houston and Galveston areas and surrounding communities overnight, and very heavy rains continue falling across these areas early this morning. Rainfall totals between Saturday evening and this morning have totaled 15 to 30 inches. Additional life-threatening rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches  with isolated higher amounts are possible across the Flash Flood  Watch area over the next several days, and results could be  devastating if any of these rains fall where catastrophic  flooding has already occurred.”

A buddy of mine, Meteorologist Brooks Garner, sent me this from his IPHONE from the KHOU-TV parking lot.  He touches on some sobering realities about the dilemma people are facing. “Have an ax with you in your attic.

 

Family escapes flooding on a raft with their dog.

Tropical Storm Harvey is stuck.  No steering currents to take it away.  This forecast from the National Hurricane Center paints a grim picture of pro-longed rain and misery for Texas for 4-5 more days with more flooding of biblical proportions, along with the tornado threat that accompanies a tropical system.

ADDITIONAL RAIN FORECAST:  Considering the fact that 15-30” of rain has already fallen since Saturday, I am unable to imagine as much or more rainfall in the next 4-5 days.  Simply too much to grasp.  The people in coastal Texas are in our thoughts and prayers.

TORNADO THREAT: The tornado threat in Texas continues today.  Numerous tornado warnings yesterday. Twelve tornadoes reported.  The tornado threat in a landfalling tropical system like Harvey is significant,

 

NEW DEPRESSION FORMING SOON FROM 92-L?:  The system over Florida, we have been watching for days, Invest 92-L could become a Depression in the next 24 hours.  This system could eventually become Tropical Storm (or sub-tropical storm) Irma.

 

 

NEXT FEW DAYS FOR US:  For us, thankfully the news is much better.  The nice easterly breeze continues.  Skies will be partly cloudy again today.  Highs will be in the 80’s for the next few days. Relatively comfortable.   Nice. Our rain chances pick up quite a bit Wednesday through Friday as tropical moisture increases from the Gulf.

 

I’ll have a complete video tomorrow morning online at 4:45AM as we look at the week ahead, including the Holiday weekend, and update the Texas unfolding disaster and the prospect for Irma threatening the Southeast this week.  Please continue to keep the people in Texas in your thoughts and prayers.

Dangerous Harvey Stuck in Texas For Days

History was made last night, when Category 4, Hurricane Harvey came ashore on the Texas coast near Rockport.  Category 4 hurricanes are extremely rare.  In the US, the last one was 2004.  In Texas the last Cat 4 was 1961.  The worst news – there are no steering currents to take Harvey away.  This system, now a category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, will stick around as a hurricane and then tropical storm for the next 4-5 days.  This will cause a horrific amount of rainfall – life-threatening, catastrophic flooding, the likes of which have not been seen in this country for many years.  Early this morning, Harvey is 30 miles SW of Victoria, moving NW at 6.  90 mph wind.

 

PROLIFIC CATASTROPIC RAINFALL:  Rainfall, I’m afraid will be measured in feet.  Rainfall totals of 25-35” will be common, amounts over 45” are possible.   As I said on the Friday video, “this will be real American tragedy.”  Please keep the people of Texas in your thoughts.

The News is Good For Us:  With Harvey stuck over Texas for several days, our weather will be quiet.  The combination of eastern winds around strong high pressure on southern Canada, and the circulation around the hurricane, will create and easterly flow across Alabama for the next few days.  The end result will be some very comfortable temperatures.  Rain chances will remain low, through early week, and then get a little better a tropical moisture returns Wednesday through Friday.

Please keep the good people of Texas in your thoughts and prayers.

–Rich

 

Major Hurricane Harvey

Air Force Reconnaissance, and surface observations indicate the winds in Hurricane Harvey have reached 120mph,  making Harvey a Major Category 3 storm.  When reaches the Texas coast by morning, it will be the first landfalling Major Hurricane on US soil in 12 years.  The storm is now 180 SE of Corpus Christi moving NW at 10.  Pressure has dropped to 943 millibars.  Hurricane warnings continue on the Texas Gulf coast.  The worst news for Texas…Harvey will stall and loop through the coastal area through the rest of the weekend.  A Storm surge of 6 to 12 feet, and relentless heavy rain will produce catastrophic flooding.

NHC:

A wind gust to 57 mph (91 km/h) was recently observed at the Naval
Air Station in Corpus Christi. A coastal observing site near Port
Aransas has measured a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

A sustained wind of 59 mph (95 km/h) and a wind gust to 69 mph
(111 km/h) were recently reported by NOAA buoy 42020, located about
40 miles off the coast of Texas.

NOAA tide gauges near Corpus Christi and Port Aransas indicate
storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 ft is already occurring.

 

PROLIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS:  Computer models continue to indicate some rainfall totals which are simply hard to grasp.  Easily rainfall could be 20 to 30”, but locally rainfall amounts could be much higher.  Catastrophic flooding is not only possible, but is highly likely, including the Houston/Galveston area.

WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TEXAS?:  After pounding Texas for at least 3 days, the future track of Harvey takes the system back over warm, open water, which could re-intensify Harvey back into a significant hurricane before making another landfall on the Upper Texas or Louisiana coast early next week.  The flooding threat will spread to much of Louisiana.  But, the sad news is, the models keep Harvey in Texas for several days.

 

 

 

 

 

Extremely Dangerous Harvey – Friday Video

Dangerous Harvey grows stronger, heads for the Texas coast.  I have the latest on this potentially catastrophic storm.  Plus, what happens after Texas?  New model data now gives us a better idea of when Harvey could influence our weather.  Nicer temperatures are on the way.  Wait until you see what’s in store.  I hope you have a couple of minutes to watch this morning’s important weather personal weather briefing.

 

We should be dry, quiet and mostly sunny today with as high of 92.

Look for a much more comfortable trend in temperatures starting this weekend into next week with highs in the 80’s  Rain chances will be small until Harvey’s affect really start increasing the rain chance Wednesday through Friday next week.

As of 4AM, winds in Harvey were already 105 mph.  Expected to become a Dangerous Category 3 Hurricane today.  It will be the first Cat 3 to cross the US coastline since Wilma in 2005.

On top of the winds and incredible Storm Surge, catastrophic flooding is expected from prolific amounts of rainfall along the Texas Gulf Coast, then spreading into Louisiana.

Global model project Harvey’s path after Texas.

Hurricane Harvey Strengthens in the Gulf

Harvey has been going through rapid intensification since early this morning, and is now Hurricane Harvey (as of Noon), as it threatens the Texas coast by late Friday night.  It is forecast to become a Major category 3 storm.  It will linger over Texas for a couple of days at least, which will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flooding.  This is likely to be an extremely dangerous hurricane on several levels.  Special 1;PM NHC Advisory Cone below:

 

PROLIFIC RAINFALL POETNTIAL:  Parts of coastal and eastern Texas could see truly epic rainfall totals which could produce catastrophic flooding.  Rainfall totals could easily be in the 20-30”range.  Higher amounts are possible.

HARVEY’S POTENTIAL FUTURE:  So what happens to Harvey after Texas?  The tracks vary widely, but it sure likes Harvey will take some sort of northeast track toward Louisiana, spreading the extreme rainfall & flooding threat eastward.  From there the models differ, while some model tracks  point northward, others take Harvey in through Mississippi and then northeastward.  How strong will Harvey be across the northern Gulf states?  What will be the exact track and the exact time line?   Many questions remain. The intense side of the storm is the east side.  It possible we’ll see a dramatic increase in rain chances in the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time frame, along with a Tornado threat.  Stay tuned over the next several days as the track or Harvey comes into better focus.

“Spaghetti” models below.

Join in the morning for your next video at 4:45AM for the very latest.  I’ll have an better idea of how Harvey’s track may evolve.

-Rich