SUNDAY PM UPDATE: Alberto To Make Landfall Tomorrow and Head North into Alabama

4;00PM NHC Update:

Alberto, still with winds of 50 mph, has made slight, and expected, turn toward the north-northwest.  It’s located 120 miles south of Apalachicola, moving NNW at 12.  Pressure 994 millibars.  (no change)     There is evidence that some drier air from the west is trying to wrap into the system.  This would likely inhibit further intensification.  The system will likely make landfall on the northern Gulf coast Monday.  However, the tropical storm conditions will begin well in advance of landfall.  Alberto will move northward into Alabama Monday afternoon, and then become weaken to a depression Monday night or Tuesday.  Extremely heavy rainfall will cause localized flash flooding.  Strong gusty winds will bring down tree limbs and small trees.  Spin up tornadoes are possible, and are very common with a landfalling tropical system.  Here’s the latest NHC forecast cone.  It hasn’t changed much from the previous forecast.

 

The storm will make landfall along the Florida panhandle Monday with winds of 50 mph gusting to 65, and then move northward into south Alabama.  It will be a depression near Montgomery late Monday night and move into north Alabama Tuesday.

Tornadoes are possible on the right side of the storm’s track through Southeast and east Alabama Monday, and lifting farther north into east and northeast Alabama Tuesday.

 

Rainfall amounts could be rather excessive, causing flash flooding in spots.  Some spots, even in central Alabama could see more than 5″/

 

My next complete blog update will be first thing in the morning by about dawn.  Have a good night.  Stay weather aware.  Download our weather app for your phone or tablet.  Just search Rich Thomas Weather in the app store.

 

Rich

 

 

 

 

Alberto’s Direct Impact on Alabama – Special Sunday Video

10;00AM NHC UPDATE:

NHC Update 10AM CDT. Winds in #Albertohave increased to 50 mph, moving north at 14 mph. 185 miles SSE of Apalachicola. The new cone, again nudged slightly eastward. Expected landfall now looking like tomorrow morning, rather than the afternoon, along the NW Florida coast, then moving northward into Alabama. #alwx #flwx

Tropical Storm Warning now covers several south and SE Alabama counties

 

This Special Sunday update I’ll bring you up to date on Alberto’s future path and timeline.  And, specifically we’ll look at the direct impact Alberto will have on us, as it crawls northward on Memorial Day and Tuesday.  Please take a couple of minutes to watch the video and feel free to share this .

 

Sub-tropical Storm Alberto, before dawn, was located 330 miles south of Apalachicola, and is getting a little better organized.  It will gradually acquire more tropical characteristics during the next 24 hours.

Latest NHC forecast cone has been, once again, nudged about 30 miles eastward.  Timeline remains about the same.

Close up of the cone shows landfall Monday afternoon along the central Florida panhandle, then on into south Alabama.  Notice at 1AM Tuesday, it’s still a full fledged tropical storm with 40-50 mph winds in south Alabama south of Montgomery, lifting slowly northward.

 

Alberto will have multiple direct impacts on our weather tomorrow, including flash flooding potential, 30 to 45 mph winds which could bring down tree limbs and small trees, and the threat for spin up tornadoes.

Tomorrow the main tornado threat will be from about i-65 eastward, covering much of east and SE Alabama.  It will begin to shift slowly northward on Tuesday.

Potentially excessive rainfall totals expected, including up to 9″ on the coast, and even 4-6″ amounts well into central Alabama.

Our rain chances will remain very high from tonight through Tuesday especially.  But, even Wednesday and Thursday, the risk of scattered thundershowers will remain, but Alberto will be long gone.

Upgraded to Tropical Storm WARNING on the coast – Saturday PM Update

..Upgrade from a Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning along the northern Gulf Coast from east of Panama City west to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  Also, part of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula also under a tropical storm warning…  Tropical Storm watch west of the MS/AL line to the mouth of the Pearl River.

At 4PM the Center of Sub-tropical Storm Alberto located about 95 south of the west tip of Cuba moving north at 13.  Pressure is down a bit to 999 millibars.  Alberto will over the eastern Gulf through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Monday morning.  But, heavy rain and tropical storm conditions will reach the northern Gulf coast well before the arrival of Alberto.  Here’s the new forecast cone.  The potential track has been nudged eastward, again, just a little bit.

Gradual strengthening is expected.  The storm could have 65 mph winds as it approaches the coast.  A transition from sub-tropical to tropical should take place in the eastern Gulf Sunday.  The storm will lift northward through west Alabama Monday afternoon, Monday night and Tuesday.

 

IMPACTS Farther Inland:  Besides the threat of excessive rainfall totals for south and central Alabama over the next few days, there will also be a tornado threat as the system lifts northward.   The tornado threat will start across south Alabama Monday, spreading northward into central Alabama Monday night and especially Tuesday.

RAINFALL POTENTIAL:  Excessive, potentially flooding totals are possible over the next few days.  On the coast, amounts of 6-9” are a good bet, with 3-5” amounts into central Alabama.  Locally heavier amounts are possible.

I’ll keep you up to date all weekend, as we continue to monitor this Tropical Threat.  I’ll have another update  Sunday morning by Dawn

Have a great weekend!

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Alberto Aims for The Gulf Coast

10:00AM CDT NHC Update:   #ALBERTO‘s track was nudged a little eastward on the latest advisory. It will be interesting to see the next advisory at about 4PM. #alwx #flwx

 

 

6:00AM Update:  All eyes on sub-tropical Storm Alberto, still located in the Caribbean, east of the Yucatan, but headed for the Gulf.  Although, Alberto is lopsided, with all the significant weather to the east side, and it is not yet truly tropical, it is expected to strengthen, get better organized over the Gulf.  It will likely transition to purely tropical by Sunday afternoon.  Meanwhile, although things are quiet at the beach now, a Tropical Storm Watch covers much of the Florida panhandle, all of the Alabama coast, and westward into Louisiana including New Orleans.

LATEST NHC UPDATE ON ALBERTO:  Currently Alberto is a minimal storm with 40 mph winds. Notice the “cone of uncertainty, covers most of Alabama.  Alberto is expected to strengthen, perhaps reaching the 65 mph wind threshold by late Sunday night, and lift northward toward the Alabama coast by Monday night, as the storm slows.  It will continue slowly northward through west Alabama as a depression Tuesday and even into Wednesday. Keep in mind the strongest side of the storm as far as torrential rainfall potential and tornado threat is east of the track.

Conditions on the coast will deteriorate by late Sunday, Sunday night and into Monday.  Besides the tropical storm watch, a storm surge watch, High surf advisory, High Rip current advisory, Flash flood watch, are some of the current risks on the coast itself.

 

IMPACTS Farther Inland:  Besides the threat of excessive rainfall totals for south and central Alabama over the next few days, there will also be a tornado threat as the system lifts northward.   The tornado threat will start across south Alabama Monday, spreading northward into central Alabama Monday night and especially Tuesday.  While rainfall amounts on the coast will likely reach 5-9″, even central Alabama could easily see 3-5″+ from Alberto.

TODAY:  This will actually be the best day of the weekend.  There will be scattered showers and storms, from time to time, especially afternoon & evening,  like the last few days, but today will not be a wash out.  Storms will thin out tonight.  High today 87, tonight’s low near 70.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  As Alberto continues moving northward, the probability of rainfall will increase and remain high through midweek.  Locally heavy rainfall amounts are a good bet.

 

I’ll keep you up to date all weekend, as we continue to monitor this Tropical Threat.  All have another update late this afternoon.  And there will be a more extensive update Sunday morning by Dawn

Have a great weekend!

Rich

Tropical Storm Watch Central Gulf Coast including Alabama Beaches

The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the north central US Gulf coast, which includes much of the Florida panhandle, all of the Alabama Gulf coast, and west into Louisiana.  It extends from Indian Pass Florida to Grand Isle, LA.   A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.  Furthermore, NHC says that if the intensity forecast continues to increase, a Hurricane Watch may be requited along the Gulf coast.

Sub-tropical Storm Alberto, located in the NW Caribbean, 315 south of the west tip of Cuba.  Right now, it is moving east at 2, but it will lift northward into the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions are more favorable for development.  Currently, it is a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds.  By mid day Monday, south of the Mobile Bay, it is forecast to be a 65 mph tropical storm.  Hurricane intensity is 75 mph.

The cone of uncertainty covers much of Alabama, Mississippi and part of Louisiana.  The system could make landfall by Monday evening, as it slowly moves northward.  However the affects of Alberto will be felt from Alberto well before landfall, as conditions deteriorate through the weekend.  Dangerous rip currents are possible, coastal flooding, flash flood watch, etc.

Even for those of us well inland here in Alabama, Alberto may have several adverse affects including torrential rainfall totals, and the threat or tornadoes from Monday PM through much of Tuesday.

Here’s a close-up of the cone.  Notice the intensity of the system Monday afternoon.  Notice the slow movement northward and its expected position 24 hours later.  This will produce tremendous amounts of rainfall and the threat of coastal flooding.

 

Stay weather aware all weekend.

There will be a complete blog update first thing tomorrow morning, which will be posted to your APP, on Facebook and other social media outlets.

–Rich