Last Full Day of Spring – Wednesday Video

Good morning!    It’s the last full day of Spring.  Summer officially begins tomorrow, but it feels summer has been here for week.  Storms will be few and far between today.  But, on this video I’ll bring you up to date on return of scattered to numerous storms for late week.  Plus, we’ll look at the weekend for here and the beaches as the news gets a little better.  And, don’t look now:  There’s another stretch of very hot days on the horizon.

Again today…storms will be rather scarce, as the heat index reaches 100+ for the third day in a row.

Better rain chances make a big come back tomorrow and Friday.  Then, storms start to gradually thin out again over the weekend and early next week.

Not a bad beach forecast.  Decent chance you could run into a storm Friday, but storms thin out over the weekend.  A good Beach forecast.

 

The EURO model suggests that storms will be more numerous Thursday and Friday, then thinning out over the weekend and next week, as the heat builds.

 

 

 

Triple Digit Heat Index – TUESDAY Video

Good morning!    Four ugly words this time of the year in this part of the world: Triple Digit Heat Indices .  Yesterday we had a heat index of 103.  We’ll be in that neighborhood today.  Although storms will be few and far between again today, on this video, I’ll show how storms will make a comeback later in the week.  We’ll look ahead to the weekend.  Plus the tropics, and we’ll look at another heat surge on the horizon.  It’s still not summer yet, but we’re getting close!

Storms will be few and far between today with a big upper level heat bubble right on top of us.  The heat index will be in the triple digit extreme caution range again.

The storms will make a comeback later in the week, especially Thursday and Friday.  Then the trend will be for fewer storms and hotter temperatures Sunday and Monday, as another upper high builds.

The upper high rebuilds early next week as highs re-surge into the mid 90’s with the heat index going back to 100-105.

 

 

Few and Far Between – Showers Become Scarce – MONDAY Video

Good morning!  Some of you had extremely heavy rain over the weekend.  Other towns had hardly any.  Today, with a big mound of high pressure building on top of us, showers should be rather scarce.  That trend may not last for long.  On this video, I’ll show the trends for the next week or so. Rain chances will vary quite a bit from day to day.  Plus, we’ll take a look out in the tropics, on your Monday morning personal weather briefing.

Storms ‘thin out’ today as high pressure builds on top of us in the upper atmosphere.

 

The trend to fewer storms does not last long.  Tropical moisture migrates back into the area as rain chances increase again by mid to late week.

Global models show another heat bubble builds over us by early next week. Here’s a look at the raw temperature guidance.

NHC has a low chance of tropical development in the west Gulf but torrential rainfall will drench much of coastal Texas.

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:  More Storms Today – Fewer Storms This Week

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.  Hopefully, today’s grilling duties will be passed on to somebody else.  But, we may dodging raindrops again.  In fact, our better than normal chance of storms continues for one more day, today.  I know – you keep hearing that storms will start to “thin out”.  I still think there will be fewer storms in the week ahead, starting tomorrow, as a bubble of high pressure builds, and replaces that low which has haunted us for days.  Yesterday was feast or famine.  Some of you had more than an inch.  The Montgomery airport had 0.00”.  A few of of you have had up to 5” in 7 days.  At my house I’ve had .81” in a week.  Feast or famine, indeed.

TODAY:  Showers & storms will become scattered to numerous today, particularly from lunchtime on, in through much of the evening.  High today near 90.  Low tonight 72.

FUTURE RADAR:   Once again today, radar will be quite active, and colorful.  Storms will be in rather generous supply.  But, again, they will be random.  Not every town will get one. Have a plan “B”.  You might have to move Dad’s festivities indoors at times.  Here are some Future Radar snapshots.

NEXT FEW DAYS – UPPER HIGH BUILDS:   For days I have been telling you about an upper high that will build over us, leading to fewer storms, more sun and hotter days.  I think that high will be most prominent from Monday through Wednesday.  Storms may increase again by the end of the week.

 

GULF DISTURBANCE AIMING FOR TEXAS:  There was quite a surge of convection in the Gulf yesterday with that “area to watch” (formerly Invest 91-L).  NHC still has a low 20% chance of development.  The Euro model is a little more generous with  a 30-40% chance of a depression forming in the SW Gulf as the system edges toward Texas.  The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

Good morning, again, from the Alabama Gulf coast!  Beautiful Saturday here yesterday from sunrise to sunset, and in between.

I’ll have another complete blog update Sunday morning around Dawn.  Have a nice Sunday!  Again, to all Dad’s, Happy Father’s Day!

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE: Active Storm Day Today – Storms Thin Out Soon

Soon there will be days when the number of storms will thin out.  Today is not that day.  Once again, the radar will be very active, as a south Alabama disturbance hangs tough.  That disturbance begins to fade by tomorrow, and a big bubble of high pressure will build, and our pattern will chance.  That will lead to fewer storms, more sun, and hotter temperatures.

TODAY:  Showers and storms will become rather numerous, again, particularly by the afternoon and evening. Still, though, not every town will get a storm.  You know the drill.  There will be more clouds than sun.  Highs will be held down to the upper 80’s by the amount of clouds and showers.  Lows tonight will be in the lower 70’s.

FUTURE RADAR:   Radar will be quite busy, and colorful, indeed.  If a picture is worth a thousand words, take a look at these future radar snapshots from later today.  Remember, we are only looking at storm coverage, not actual storm placement.

NEXT FEW DAYS – UPPER AIR CHANGES:   A stubborn area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, located over south Alabama, will again be the culprit for storms today.  But, the upper Low will “fill” in the next 24-36 hours, as heights rise.  A Big area of upper level high pressure will build over the Gulf states.  High pressure is sinking air.  As the air sinks and expands, storms will be fewer in number, there will be more sunshine and hotter temperatures, particularly Monday through Wednesday and much of next week.

 

STILL WATCHING THE GULF:  The disturbance formerly known as Invest 91-L, is just a cluster of thunderstorms over the Yucatan and the SW Gulf.  The National Hurricane Center only gives this area a 10% chance of development.  Looks like moisture from this system is destined for Texas.  The rest of the tropical Atlantic basin is quiet.

Good morning from the Alabama Gulf coast!  Here’s a picture across the Back Bay looking towards the lights of Orange Beach.

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Could be an active storm day here today, but as my Dad once said, “It never rains in the restaurant.”

I’ll have another complete blog update Sunday morning around Dawn.  Have a nice weekend!

-Rich