SATURDAY UPDATE:  Dangerous Severe Threat Northwest Half of Alabama – Diminishing Threat Southward

3:00PM UPDATE:  ROUND ONE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER…

Tornado Watch covers much of west and central Alabama until 10PM.  The Watch extends as far EAST as Chilton and Perry County.  Additional watches are likely later.  Stay weather aware.  Warnings have been underway since around 2:30PM.  The severe threat in Alabama continues for several hours until perhaps 3 or 4 AM in south central Alabama.

EARLIER MORNING UPDATE:

A potentially very dangerous situation is setting up, especially in the northwest quadrant our state by this evening and tonight, including the threat of significant tornadoes.  While the threat is highest north and west of I-20/I-59, there is a Marginal Threat by later tonight and into the wee hours of the morning as far south as the I-85 corridor, as a line of strong thunderstorms progresses southward.  Although not as dangerous, there is at least a risk of a brief tornado or two as far south as the River Region by late tonight.  The rest of the news about today involves record heat.  Montgomery had a record high of 86 yesterday and it looks very likely that we’ll see another record today.  That’s fuel for the fire when it comes to severe storms.

TODAY:  Breezy, warm & humid.  There will be a sun/cloud mix, but potentially more clouds than sun.  The Montgomery high may reach 84.  That would break the record of 83 from last year.  Can’t rule out some spotty, random thunderstorms this afternoon & this evening.  Looks like a pretty good forecast for Mardi Gras celebrations today in Millbrook and Montgomery.

All the big action with the squall line happens late tonight.  More below.

SEVERE RISK BY EVENING & TONIGHT:  The Storm Prediction Center has a level 4 Moderate Risk for parts of north Mississippi and extreme northwest Alabama.  Much of northwest Alabama is in the Enhanced Risk, with a Level 2 slight risk all the way down to a Clanton/Selma line.  A Marginal Severe risk extends as far as, roughly a Alex City, Montgomery, Greenville line.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham extends the risk a little father.  It extends as far east as Auburn and the southern tip of Montgomery county through about 3AM, and I think this is very plausible.

All modes of severe weather are possible, including a risk of “significant long-tracked” tornadoes, particularly in the enhanced and moderate risk areas.  Large hail to 1” in diameter or larger, and 70+ wind gusts are also likely.  Farther south, in the Marginal risk area, the threat begins to diminish.  Here’s a few Future Radar snapshots.  Let me point out…we’re not just tracking the prominent line of thunderstorms.  Ahead of the line, especially in NW Alabama, individual super-cell thunderstorms will pose a significant tornado threat, perhaps beginning as early as 5PM.  Very often, these are the most dangerous tornado producers.  Tornadoes are also possible with the line of storms, along with the hail threat and damaging wind threat.  The “squall line” will be in a weakening stage when it reaches near I-85/I-65 intersection by late tonight, but the storms will probably still have a severe weather potential.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  The risk of showers will be around until early Sunday morning, but then, there will be improvement by mid-day and afternoon Sunday.  It should be a nice afternoon.  Monday, and much of Tuesday look picture-postcard perfect.  There could be some more showers by mid week as a Gulf disturbance brushes by the area.

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Stay weather aware, particularly tonight, as the line of strong storms moves southward.  Make sure you have our weather app handy and your weather radio is in the alert mode, so that it can wake up if a warning is issued for your area.

I’ll have another blog update on Sunday morning, early.   Have a nice weekend!

-Rich

80’s Today & Tomorrow – Strong/Severe Storm Threat Late Saturday – FRIDAY Video

Happy Friday!  Is this February? After 84 yesterday, we’ll be in the 80’s again today and tomorrow before a big change, as a storm system brings a strong line of storms to Alabama by Saturday evening and Saturday night.  Parts of our state could see severe storms.  I have the latest on timing and the new severe threat outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.  Then, what’s next?   Could see a strong cold front usher in much colder air during the first few days of March.  We’ll take a peek ahead on your Friday morning personal weather briefing.

 

We’re in the 80’s again today with the risk of some spotty PM storms.  The record for today is 85 from last year.

Potent storm system affects the state by late tomorrow into tomorrow night, as a line of strong to severe storms enters and tracks across the state.

The Storm Prediction has trimmed the eastern extent of the Marginal Risk area for now, but that could certainly change. The stronger threat level for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes exists across northwest Alabama and points west and northwest.

After the front exits the area early Sunday, much of Sunday and Monday look pretty nice until another shower threat returns Tuesday & Wednesday.

Colder air as we get into the first week of March.  The models continue to advertise a big change.  Stay tuned.

More Rain Ahead – Saturday Severe Weather Threat – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  More rain for Alabama for the next few days.  Again today, although the heaviest rain will be across the northern half of the state, some of us will see some heavy downpours.  We’re in the warmer air now with 70’s today and 80+ Friday and Saturday.  But, all eyes are on a Saturday evening, Saturday night storm system which could bring severe weather to the state.  I have the latest on the time line and the new threat level from the Storm Prediction Center.

 

That stalled front in central Alabama will migrate northward today.  We are in the warm muggy air south of the front.  Scattered showers and storms today and tonight.

The treat of rain will be around through Sunday morning before we get a break.  80+ degrees Friday & Saturday!   Severe weather threat by Saturday evening.  Nice break Sunday afternoon & Monday.

Impressive storm system will affect us with the threat of severe storms Saturday evening and Saturday night.

Marginal risk as far east as Montgomery Saturday evening and deep into south Alabama.  Level 2 slight risk for much of west central and north Alabama.  Enhanced risk northwest Alabama and into MS and TN.

Hang on.  The models continue to advertise a shot of Much Colder air arriving by about March 4 or 5.

More rain: A Few Stronger Storms Today – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  More rain for Alabama.  Today some of the storms could be strong/severe in spots.  I have the latest from the Storm Prediction Center.  We have 4-5 more days with rain in the forecast, as a parade of storm systems line up.  It appears the strongest system could arrive by Saturday evening. Severe storms area possibility, according to SPC.  I’ll update the set-up and the time line.  And there have been some adjustments to just how much more rainfall Alabama could see in the next few days.

 

A northward moving warm-front will be a key player today, as big chunk of the state gets into “juicy” air, leading to the threat of strong/severe storms, perhaps even as far east as the I-65 corridor today.  A brief tornado or two can’t be ruled out, along with strong gusty winds and the threat of hail.

Rain continues in the forecast for the several days.  Best chance of thunderstorms  today through Saturday.  Severe weather can’t be ruled out Saturday or Saturday night.  We’re watching this system closely.

Potent storm system will begin to affect the state Saturday and Saturday night.  Many of the ingredients for severe weather will be present.  Tornadoes are also possible.

SPC has already highlighted much of Alabama for s severe weather risk Saturday PM.

 

 

 

Several Days of Rain for Alabama – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  The word for Alabama for the next several days is RAIN.  But, how much rain, depends on where you will get.  Some parts of the state will see “boatloads” of rain, other places not as much.  It’s a complex pattern.  Each day will be different.  I’ll do my best to give you the condensed digest of what to expect.  And, attention winter weather fans:  Are we done with winter?  Apparently not.  I’ll show you a pattern change on the not too distant horizon.

 

Today will be cool, windy and wet at times.  Highs in the 50’s.  Wind will make it seem cooler.   The warm front near the coast will start moving northward overnight tonight.

Tomorrow and Thursday we are back in the 70’s with showers and thunderstorms around from time to time.  The heaviest rain will be along and near the frontal system.

Rain is in the forecast each day…even a few thunderstorms at times.  Friday will be the warmest day as we tease 80 degrees.  A front on Saturday night could bring a round of strong storms.  It’s too early to say if it will be a severe weather situation.

This map shows how much the rain totals will vary from north to south.  Not much rain in the Dothan area, but there could be 2-4″ amounts north of I-85 and 5-7″+ in north Alabama where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect.

 

A front on Saturday night could bring a round of strong storms.  It’s too early to say if it will be a severe weather situation.