SATURDAY UPDATE:  Storm-Free Weekend – Cooler Air Ahead

Good Morning!  How would you like a completely storm-free weekend for a change?

A couple of showers moved through overnight ahead of a front sweeping across the state today.  But, today will be a nice.  Sunshine will dominate today and Sunday.  The string of nice days should stick around through Tuesday, before the next storm system arrives by mid-week. Meanwhile, some cooler, nicer air will funnel into the state tonight and hang around through Monday morning.  Enjoy!   This is the longest string of nice days we have seen in weeks.

COOLER AIR AHEAD:  You’ll feel that cooler air by tonight, and Sunday.  Sunday’s high will only reach the low 70’s.  And Sunday night/Monday will be chilly.  Take a look.  Lows will be in the mid 40’s here in central Alabama, with lower 40’s up north.  It’s late in the ballgame for that!

TODAY:   Nice day.  Lots of sunshine.  Breezy and warm.  High in the low to mid 80’s.  Breezy and cooler tonight.  Low 54.

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:  I am excited about a storm-free Sunday!   Much cooler.  High 73.  Chilly Sunday night.  Perfect Monday.  Warmer Tuesday.  Showers and storms Wednesday.   Dry Thursday.

WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM:  Next rain arrives Wednesday.  An approaching cool front will bring in showers and thunderstorms.  Some stronger storms are possible.  Will this be a severe weather day?  Too early to say yet.  By the way, I went back and checked.  We have had seven severe weather days since March 30th.  It has been a regrettably busy severe weather April. May is typically much calmer.

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I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Enjoy this nice weather!  Stay safe and well.

-Rich

Storm-Free for Awhile – String of Nice Days Ahead..Finally -FRIDAY Video

Good Morning!  The news is very good for the next few days.  A storm system will brush by north Alabama Saturday, but it looks like we will escape the storms.  Cooler air arrives Sunday.  Are we done with Severe Weather Episodes for awhile? How long will we stay storm-free?  I’ll update the details of a great weekend forecast and we’ll look ahead well into the next week.  How many dry days?

TRANQUIL today.  A nice change…finally.  Sunshine.  Comfortable.

Storm system brushes by the state tomorrow.  But most of the rain and storms with this system should stay well north of us.  I have the rain chances under 20%, but not zero. That cool front will bring some fresh air and cooler temperatures for Saturday night through Monday.

GREAT day Sunday.  Mid 70’s.  Chilly Sunday night….upper 40’s.

A VERY NICE STRING OF DAYS… Storm-free.  Severe weather-free.  Chance of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday.

The Alabama River in Montgomery should fall below flood stage later today.

Severe Weather Threat This Afternoon & This Evening

4:00 UPDATE:

Severe thunderstorm watch issued for much of central Alabama until 9PM.  Hail up to Lime size.. Damaging winds to 70 mph.  Can’t rule out a tornado or two.

The Severe Weather Risk for  has been downgraded slightly to a Level 2 “Slight Risk”   Thunderstorms will develop.  Some could become severe weather damaging winds to 60 mph, large hail and some tornadoes.  Even though the threat has decreased one notch, don’t let your guard down.

The main time window is from about Noon far west to 7PM far East.  Here’s the updated NWS time-line graphic:

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

Alabama will once again be in the severe weather mode today.  We are in an ENHANCED risk.  Level 3 out of 5.  All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds, and tornadoes.  The scenario is complicated.  It involves two rounds of severe weather.  One this morning and another this afternoon.  The afternoon round is highly dependent  on how the morning round plays out.  The greatest tornado risk will play out across the area in round two.  I’ll bring you up to date with the details on this video and we’ll look ahead to calmer weather this weekend.  Stay weather aware today.  Make sure you have our weather app on your phone.  Already this morning, much of South Alabama is under a Tornado Watch.

ENHANCED severe risk today.  All modes of severe weather possible inducing damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

Already ALL of South Alabama is under a tornado watch until 1PM.

Couple of afternoon snapshots of future radar showing how individual storms develop in a ripe enviroment and they coukd easily become tornadic.

Locally heavy rainfall.

Nice weather returns for Friday and a period of quiet days will follow.

Another Severe Weather Day Thursday – Improvement Friday -WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  We are going to enjoy one more tranquil day today.  But, get ready.  We have to deal with yet another Severe Weather Risk tomorrow.  The action begins early in the morning across the west Alabama and spreads eastward.  Will we see more than one Round?  Some models indicate we could see a re-development in the afternoon.  On this video, I’ll break down the timeline and the threat level. The Wind Damage risk will be a primary risk.  The tornado threat is a bit more conditional.  I’ll explain.  What about the weekend?  Will there be any more storms?  I have tweaked the weekend forecast.

 

Nice QUIET day today… Warm  High near 80.  Clouds increase today.  Look at the big storm system in Oklahoma.  That’s our future late tonight and Thursday.

Potent set-up for strong/severe storms tomorrow with this powerful storm system.

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SPC’s outlook through 7AM Thursday morning, shows that even early on tmorrow morning there’s already a Marginal Severe risk across the western countess west of I-65.  Damaging wind threat.

Rather significant ENHANCED Severe Risk for most of us Thursday.  Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes are possible. General broad timeline would be 7AM West to maybe 6PM far east.  That’s obviously a large time window.  Much depends on the small unknown “meso-scale” factors, which we can’t see today, but will be more clear by morning.

Could of Future Radar snapshots during the morning from the NAM model.  Could be a significant potential wind damage event, but will it also morph into a tornado threat?

Will the atmosphere be able to RECOVER after the morning round of storms?  Could we see some severe, potentially TORNADIC storms late morning into the afternoon?  The jury is out, but that scenario is certainly possible.  The devil is in the details.

Parts of central Alabama could see an additional 2-3 inches of rain with this next system.

After Severe weather Thursday…Nice day Friday.  Saturday rain chance is small, but we’ll have to monitor for stronger storms.  Storm free Sunday!   Nice string of days starts Sunday and well into next week.

Parts of north Alabama could see some strong possibly severe storms Saturday with this approaching cool front, but the rain chances farther south are much smaller.  And, FINALLY…it looks like a Storm-free Sunday!!   That’ll be nice.

ENHANCED Severe Risk Thursday -TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  We are going to enjoy another great day today…in month that has brought us such turbulence and widespread damage.  Enjoy the sun and comfortable temperatures today.  We have yet another Severe Weather Risk arriving by Thursday.  The Storm Prediction Center has put us in an enhanced risk.  The timeline has changed.  It’s a few hours slower now.  I’ll bring you up to date and we’ll look ahead to the weekend.  Are there any more storms on our immediate horizon?

 

Enjoy what should be a really nice day today!!

A snother potentially significant storm system brings another round of severe weather Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center has already issued an ENHANCED Risk level for Alabama on Thursday.   Level 3 of 5.  Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

After the Severe Weather Thursday, Friday looks nice.  Most of the weekend should be ok.  Widey scattered showers Saturday ahead of a cool front.  Much cooler Sunday….BUT a Sunday without storms…

Could be locally heavy rainfall amounts in central Alabama again.

About a dozen river gauges in central Alabama are above flood stages.  (Orange dots)