Storm System Approaching – Monday Video

Good Morning!  We will flirt with a Record High on a rather remarkable President’s Day today.  But, we’re monitoring the next storm system..the first of two front’s which will affect our weather this week.  A warm week could lead to a much cooler weekend.  And, we could be a week away from a much stronger storm system.  Your 2 minute personal briefing with your toast and coffee this morning.

Record Highs possible today from Mobile north to Chicago and Madison, Wisconsin.  Montgomery’ record high is 80 from 2011.

 

Storm System on the way will spread showers and thunderstorms into the area by Tuesday afternoon & Tuesday night.  Could be a few leftover showers Wednesday.

Rainfall will not be excessive.   In fact most of us should see .50 to 1.25″   Heavier rains will be confined to near the Gulf coast.

 

NEW EL NINO?:  For those of you who care…a couple of years ago we were in a so-called Super El Nino, which caused, among other things, a very stormy time, coast to coast, and at times prolific rainfall, plus a warmer than normal winter in a large part of the country, and a calmer than normal hurricane season.  In the last year we have been in a opposite phase: a weak La Nina.  Recently we have been neutral.  But, now, guess what?  We are easing back into what looks like another El Nino phase in the spring and summer ahead, as ocean waters are warming off the coast of South America.  It appears we may see a very active March, with wild temperature swings and perhaps several bouts of severe weather.  This could carry into April, as well.  The period from April through July appears to be very warm.  What about the hurricane season this year?  Well, usually an El Nino tends to stifle hurricane development, because of stronger winds in the lower latitudes which lead to shear.  Shear is the kiss of death to a tropical system.  Having said that, another factor must be considered.  The water temps. (SST) near and just off the US Coastlines are projected to be extremely warm this season.  That would promote the possible birth of a number of “homegrown, backyard” type tropical season.  So, there are mixed signals as we look ahead to this year’s season.

SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK:  This is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Alabama.  It has already been active 2017 for tornadoes with close to 20 tornadoes for the young year already.  There’s no way to be sure, but there are ominous signals that this Spring severe weather season could be very, very active indeed, perhaps the most active in about 6 years.  Make sure your family has a plan of action and more than one way to receive warnings.  Our weather App and a good weather radio are essential.  DO NOT rely on outside sirens.  They are only meant to alert people are are outside.  Sirens can fail.  Sirens, at times, can not be heard inside.  Do not risk your life depending on sirens to alert you.  Get our app on your phone and/or tablet today. Search Rich Thomas Weather in your App store.   For more information about weather awareness week:  http://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_feb2017

 

WEEK AHEAD: Very Warm Days / Showers at Times

Fog, which was a big issue this morning, has now burned off.   Sunshine has already taken over in most areas.   We will be well into the 70’s today,  and we will flirt with 80, perhaps on President’s Day, followed by rain returning on Tuesday.

TODAY:  AM Fog is already giving way to lots of  Sun.  Warmer.  High 76°.  Low tonight 51.

MONDAY:  Lots of folks are off.  What a nice President’s Day.  After some morning fog,  mostly sunny and very warm.  High upper 70’s to near 80.  The record high for tomorrow in Montgomery is 79.  Low Tuesday night 55.  Record highs are possible from Alabama to Wisconsin and Iowa.

TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM:  Low  pressure tracking along the Gulf Coast will be our next weather maker.  The best chance for showers and few thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This does not look like a severe weather situation.  Perhaps a couple of left over showers Wednesday.

THE WEEK AHEAD:  Temperatures will be well into the 70’s all week.  The next frontal system will deliver more showers by the end of the week in the Friday/Saturday time frame.  Too early to say if this will have any strong/severe storms.

 

SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK:  Today begins severe weather awareness week in Alabama.  It has already been active 2017 for tornadoes with close to 20 tornadoes for the young year already.  There’s no way to be sure, but there are ominous signals that this Spring severe weather season could be very, very active indeed, perhaps the most active in about 6 years.  Make sure your family has a plan of action and more than one way to receive warnings.  Our weather App and a good weather radio are essential.  DO NOT rely on outside sirens.  They are only meant to alert people are are outside.  Sirens can fail.  Sirens, at times, can not be heard inside.  Do not risk your life depending on sirens to alert you.  Get our app on your phone and/or tablet today. Search Rich Thomas Weather in your App store.  For more information about weather awareness week:  http://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_feb2017

My next video will be online by 5AM Monday.  Have a great Sunday!

WEEKEND UPDATED: SHOWERS TODAY – Nice Sunday & Monday

Showers which moved in overnight, will continue on an off for much of the morning, however future radar trends shows improvement in the afternoon hours as the concentrated rain moves east.  There will still be spotty showers during the afternoon.  Sunday and Tuesday looks perfect.

FUTURE RADAR TODAY:  Here are some future radar snapshots at 9AM, 11AM and 2PM.  Notice how the most concentrated band of rain moves into the east counties around lunchtime.  The afternoon features mostly spotty light showers.  Hopefully that will hope your planning today. The Mardi Gras parade in Millbrook is at Noon.  The Montgomery Mardi Gras block party starts at 5, downtown. High today around 64.  Your weather App Future Radar will keep you up to date all day.  It takes you at least 4 hours into the future, plus, of course current radar.

 

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARMTH:  Some of you have an extended weekend for the President’s Day holiday.  The weather should be great both Sunday & Monday.  Look at the high temps map below.  At least mid 70’s Sunday, upper 70’s Monday.  The Monday Montgomery record high is 79, and we could tie it.  Enjoy!

THE WEEK AHEAD:  The week ahead should continue warm with highs in the 70’s.  The Best rain chance from the mid week storm system is now a little faster.  Looks like the best chance of showers will be Tuesday, with a smaller chance Wednesday.  More showers could pop up at the end of the week in the late Friday/Saturday time frame.

Have a great weekend!  The next video will be Monday morning, with Blog updates, like this one, as needed.

Saturday Showers – 50/50 Weekend – Friday Video

Happy Friday!  And, what a beautiful Friday it will be!  But, a Gulf Disturbance will bring showers which could affect your Saturday plans.  I’ll show you future radar. You will be happy to see the Sunday & President’s Day Monday forecast.  Picnic in the Park weather.  Latest on that Mid Week Gulf storm system, and maybe a big deal storm system by the end of the month.  Here’s your Friday morning weekend weather briefing.

A Gulf Disturbance will bring showers to the state late tonight and Saturday.  It appears by Saturday evening, the best rain chances will be shifting into SE Alabama.

The Euro Model shows the trends for the next 10 days.  Shower chances Saturday, and again around Wednesday, and again around the following Saturday.  Warm week ahead with highs in the 70’s beginning  Sunday.

 

 

8 YEARS AGO…DATELINE PRATTVILLE, AL, SUNDAY AFTER 2:58 pm… TORNADO Sirens.  Tornado touchdown just SW of the city.  Tracked Northeastward through the Cobbs Ford Road area through several highly populated neighborhoods.  200 residential homes and 40 businesses either damaged or destroyed…50 injuries.   Miraculously no fatalities.  One of 10 Alabama tornadoes that day… 

Next week is Severe Weather Awareness week in Alabama.

 

UPDATED Weekend Forecast – Thursday Video

Good Morning!  The chilly air that covers the state won’t be here long.  Just a brief taste.  I’ve the updated the shower threat for Saturday.  I’ll have the updated, “tweaked” weekend details.  Plus, the latest on that mid week storm system next week.  And, maybe a big deal storm looming by the end of the month.  Did you Space station flyover last night?  You get another chance this evening.  Here’s your Thursday morning personal weather briefing with your toast and coffee.

 

Scattered showers could affect your Saturday plans from time to time, as a Gulf disturbances drifts by.  Sunday still looks like the best day of the weekend.

Still some remaining question marks about this next storm system around the middle of next week.  One global model, the Euro has the storm system farther south in the Gulf.  The US GFS has the low near New Orleans on Wednesday.

Another GREAT Space Station Flyover tonight, in case you missed last night.  Look in the NE sk, streaking into the east and SE sky, 6:08 – 6:11PM