SATURDAY UPDATE:  Cooler Days – Rain Returns to Our Forecast Soon

There’s much to talk about.  Cooler air is overspreading the state. The first of two cool fronts this week is moving through the state.  But, even more important, there are more and more signs that rain chances will improve quite a bit next 4 days.  In fact, there could be a significant rainfall even in our state Tuesday.  A strong cold front in the middle of next week will usher in Much Cooler air.  Jacket weather nights are in the future, later next week.   Big changes are in store for our stagnant weather pattern.   Early this morning, the weakening cool front is moving into southeast Alabama.

TODAY:  The weak cool front moving through the state  doesn’t even have showers associated with it.  Today will be comfortable. Considerable cloudiness.  High upper 70’s to near 80.  Northwest wind 6 to 12.   It will feel like Fall.

TONIGHT:  There will be a big contrast across the state of Alabama.  North Alabama will fall to the low to mid 40’s with clearing skies.  South Alabama will be much warmer in the 60’s, due to cloudiness, and the position of the weak, stalled font.  Low temperature in Montgomery 59.  A few showers could start to pop up overnight in the southern and central counties.

SUNDAY:  What’s called and “overrunning” situation is setting up.  High level moisture rides up and over the front near the coast.  With cool air next the surface, it sets up a perfect environment for patchy light rain to develop Sunday and Sunday night.  Highs will be confined to the 70’s

TALLADEGA SUNDAY:  Take a jacket.  High near 70.  Patchy light rain is possible at times.  The main cup race starts at 1PM.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Scattered showers will be around on Columbus Day, Monday.   The best chance of significant rain and thunderstorms will be Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front.  Right now it appears the severe weather threat is small, but not zero.  The front moves through Wednesday morning, shutting off the rain.  Much cooler air overspreads the area by Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The ‘REAL DEAL’ Fall Air will be in place for the rest of next weekend.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TUESDAY?:   We are in a significant drought.  We desperately need raindrops.  The BEST chance for significant rainfall will be Tuesday, along and ahead of a strong cold front.  Many places could see 1 to 3”.  Some spots in north central Alabama could see 3-4”+.

 

LONGER RANGE:  Please remember…when I show you a graph like this….it is NOT a forecast.  This is RAW temperature guidance from the United States Global Model Ensembles called the GFS.  We never look at specific numbers.  We only look at trends.  The TREND this week, behind the Wednesday cold front, will be the coolest air we have seen this fall, by far.  Looks like jacket weather nights and mornings.

I have Fair Duty today from 12 to 2 at the Alabama National Fair.  After that, I’ll be watching football…  I hope you have a great Saturday.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend!

-Rich

Two Cool Fronts in the Week Ahead – Updated Rain Chance – FRIDAY VIDEO

Happy Friday! Just in time for the weekend, we have cool front on the way, which will deliver some nice, cooler, comfortable air . There won’t be much rain with this front, but there will be a few spotty showers. Hang on, though. There are some new wrinkles in the forecast. I have increased the chance for scattered showers Sunday through Wednesday…before the next cold front moves through the state. Wait till you see some of the temperature numbers behind next week’s front.

Warm day today….  Spotty showers late tonight ahead of Cool Front #1…

UPDATED Rain chance.  I went UP on the chance for scattered showers Sunday through Wednesday.

 

Cool  front #1 sweeps through the state in the overnight hours with a few spotty showers.  Comfortable weekend temperatures behind the front.

NOT as cool as we had hoped, Saturday night and Sunday AM, but still the coolest of the season so far…

Hope we get some much needed rain!   Scattered showers Sunday evening through Wednesday.

 

Three Cold fronts next 15 days…

New Drought Monitor map….NOT good

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Weekend Frontal Relief – THURSDAY Video

Good morning!   Get ready for another near 90° day today and tomorrow, while the nights remain quite comfortable.  The weekend news continues to be good.  A cool front enters the state in the Friday night overnight hours and sweeps across the state Saturday.  Some much cooler air moves in behind the front and we’re expecting 50’s on Sunday morning.  Will there be any showers with the front?   That’s a good question.  A second front moves in NEXT week with a better chance of rain.  It will deliver the coolest air of the Fall by far.  And, there is a historic early October  snowstorm underway in the Rockies.

While a snow storm rages in the Rockies we will be up near 90 degrees today and tomorrow.  The nights remain comfortable.

Significant cool down this weekend.  Still looks like 50’s Sunday morning around dawn.  Small rain chance with cool front number one Friday night, and again by the middle of next week with front number two.

Watch as the approaching band of showers ahead of the cool front starts to fall apart as it gets into Alabama.  Some NICE air, cooler air will follow the front.

Still looks like 50’s here by late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Tiny Rain chance at Talladega this weekend…BUT, a very comfortable weekend.

Warm & Dry Now – Weekend Cold Front Bring a Big Change – WEDNESDAY Video

Good morning!   Our nights and mornings have been nice.  Our afternoons will be teasing 90 for the next 3 days.  But, are you ready for a “chilly” morning in the not too distant future?  Get ready!  Another cold front arrives by Saturday.  Saturday night could be jacket weather.  Our pattern is getting more active.  Could we see three cold fronts in the next 12 days?  We’ll search for potential raindrops, too.

 

Comfortable morning start…but a very warm day ahead.  High 88 to 90.  (We had 90 yesterday)   Rain chance about 10%.

 

Comfortable nights but hot days through Friday with very tolerable humidity.  Slight chance of a shower with the front late Friday night into Saturday.  NICE Fall Air behind the front for the weekend!

Hopefully that band of showers will give us a few raindrops Friday night ahead of the next Cold Front.   Get ready for some really nice air behind the front this weekend.

Check out these spectacular lows Sunday morning around Dawn.  COOLEST air of the season so far,

There will be another cold front my the middle of next week.

So.  This is RAW GFS temperature guidance.  Try not to focus on specific numbers.  We’re just looking at trends.  Cold front Saturday, another cold front next week and another one the following week.  Jackets ready?  Some nights you may need them.

Really NICE Talladega Race Weekend Forecast!

 

 

Nice Week Ahead – Next Cold Front This Weekend – MONDAY Video

Good morning!   Yesterday’s cool front didn’t bring much rain, but it will lower the humidity, and nights will be more comfortable.  We have a n ice string of days ahead this week, and already we have our eyes on yet another cool front this weekend, which usher in the best Fall Air so far this season.  In fact, we may see two more fronts in the next 8 days.  What about rain?  Do we have any rain on the horizon?

Today’s air, behind the front is better…not spectacular.  The humid air has exited.  So today will be more tolerable.  There will be a few showers on the radar, but your chances of seeing one are very small.

The next few days will be very warm, but with tolerable humidity and comfortable nights.  Next chance of showers by FRiday evening and night into early Saturday as a cool front approaches.  It delivers some pretty spectacular air this weekend.

The next cool front could deliver a few showers Friday night into early Saturday, followed by a shot of much cooler air.

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Dawn Sunday could be the coolest morning since last April.  NICE stuff…

GFS model guidance shows TWO cold fronts in our future — The one Saturday, and another frontal arrival around Tuesday October 15th.  Each front delivers another level of cooler air.