TORNADO THREAT through SUNDAY MORNING

Tornado watches have been extended and now include MOST of the state, except for Southeast Alabama.

Damaging winds to 60 mph and Tornadoes are expected.   The watch in the eastern and central counties continues until 9AM.   Watch across the rest of South Alabama goes until 10AM.

BE READY to take action quickly if a warning is issued for your area.  Our weather app will alert you immediately.

Stay weather aware!

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK UNTIL 7AM

OUTLOOK FOR LATER TODAY AS THE STORMS SPREAD EAST

 

 

 

UPDATE on Sunday’s Severe Weather Threat – New Timing

All eyes on an approaching storm system, currently in Texas.  What could be a significant Tornado Outbreak, is expected today from eastern Texas into Central Mississippi.  The severe weather threat begins in Alabama in overnight hours tonight, and spreads eastward Sunday morning into the early afternoon into East Alabama.  All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes.  The timeline is faster now.  More into the details below.  Here’s the ominous severe weather outlook map for today/tonight and through 7AM Sunday morning.

TODAY:   Breezy and warm.  Partial sunshine.  High in the mid 80’s.  Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop, particularly this afternoon & evening.  Most towns will stay dry.  Can’t rule out a stronger storm somewhere in the area.  The main activity enters the state late tonight, with severe storms as early as perhaps 1AM over far west Alabama.

SUNDAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  The dangerous part of the equation involves the overnight timeline, beginning in west Alabama as early as 1AM, progressing through much of the western half of the state in the pre-dawn hours and into eastern Alabama by mid to late morning, before exiting state by about 1PM.  You need to have an effective way of being awakened when a warning is issued for you, like a weather radio.   Our weather app also has an “audio cue” when a warning is issued, so leave your phone active.  First, let me show you  the outlook map from the NWS in Birmingham.  While it covers their counties of responsibility, it is ‘all inclusive’ on the total timeline from 1AM to 1PM.  They have opted for a greater ENHANCED severe weather risk.  Part of their increased concern involves the overnight time frame.  They are trying to increase awareness. NWS also indicate ‘a strong tornado is possible’ (especially across the western half of the state) Here’s their map.  Keep in mind the threat extends farther south than their area of responsibility.

Now let me show you a wider risk area map from the Storm Prediction Center.  Their Sunday outlook period begins at 7AM, when severe weather, of course will be ongoing. They have opted for the greater Enhanced risk from NE Alabama eastward.

THE FASTER TIMELINE – FUTURE RADAR:  I always wrestle about showing you Future Radar snapshots.  They should never be taken literally.  This NOT the way radar will really look.  This is one model’s (NAM) idea on what radar could look like at various hours.  Two things are clear.  Timing is much earlier now.  And, it won’t be a solid squall line (QLCS).  The line will be more broken in nature, allowing for ‘individual’ super-cells.  In my mind, this is worrisome.   This would help promote an increased tornado threat.  We’ll watch future hi-res model trends through the day.  I have selected snapshots at 4, 6, 8 and 11AM.  Please view these with caution.  This is just one possible scenario.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Monday through Wednesday look nice.  Pleasant.  Lots of sun.  Chilly mornings will give way to warm, comfortable afternoons.  There is another storm system on Thursday which worries me.  Another dose of severe weather can’t be ruled out.

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Tomorrow morning, there will not be a “traditional” Blog update, because Severe Weather will be ongoing. I will be LIVE in The Bluewater Weather Center.  There will be updates, online, on your app, and on Facebook & Twitter.  There will be a LIVE stream (video & audio with me) on your app , on our website, and You Tube.  We will interrupt on all 8 Bluewater stations for warnings.  I will be contributing to coverage on The Alabama News Network, as well.  (CBS 8 and ABC 32).  Make sure your weather on in the ‘alert’ mode to wake you up.  Our Weather App will also have audio cues to alert you, as well.  DO NOT depend on hearing a weather siren.  Stay weather aware.  I’ll do my very best to keep you up to date.

-Rich

Sunday’s ENHANCED Severe Risk – Tornadoes Threat – Special FRIDAY Video

..All Eyes on Weekend Severe Weather Threat…  It should be a warm and relatively quiet today, and much of tomorrow, too.  Any shower activity will be widely scattered.  All attention continues to center on a developing storm system,  which threatens to bring severe weather to Alabama as early as late Saturday night, and across the state Sunday.  There is an ENHANCED risk of tornadoes.  On this video, I’ll bring you up to date on the details.  The timing has changed a bit, and we now have an updated threat level from the Storm Prediction Center.  As if that’s not enough, another storm system later next week could bring more severe weather to the state.  I hope you have a couple of minutes to watch today’s important video.

 

Significant tornado risk Saturday in the states west of Alabama, edging into western Alabama in the pre-dawn hours Sunday.

This gets your attention.  The Local NWS office in Birmingham has decided to place the entire area in an ENHANCED risk for Sunday, begining early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  A stronger Risk of Tornadoes.

Here’s the wider regional shot of Sunday’s Severe Weather Risk according to The Storm Prediction Center.

Here’s one model (NAM) showing the possible time line progression of the storms moving across the state Sunday.

Another severe weather threat arrives Thursday.

Update on Sunday Severe Weather Threat – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  We’re going to enjoy another quiet weather day today, with highs in the 80’s.  Meanwhile, all eyes are on the weekend storm system, which will bring a significant severe weather threat across the South, and into Alabama by early Sunday, including  the threat of tornadoes. On this video, I  have an update on timing and the expected threat level.  I have some good information for you.  Plus, could there be yet another severe weather threat for us to deal with by the middle of next week?  Unfortunately, that’s certainly possible.  I’ll show you what we know now.

Another quiet day today with highs well int the 80’s  Historic April storm in the north central US.

Powerful evolution of the weekend severe weather threat, as depicted by the EURO model as the storm system moves into MS Sunday morning and into western Alabama Sunday afternoon.

 

The GFS model is a little faster and less ominous.  We hope this model solution is correct.

Here’s the SPC Severe Weather Threat map through 7AM Sunday morning.

 

SPC Severe weather risk area for Sunday includes most of Alabama, from 7am through the afternoon at least.  Damaging winds and tornado threat.

Nice weather returns Monday & Tuesday after the storms Sunday.

Another strong to potentially severe weather situation by next Wednesday night into Thursday the 18th.

Weekend Severe Weather Threat Growing – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Enjoy a couple of quiet days today and tomorrow, because we have some ominous weather to deal with this weekend.  The stage is set for a potentially severe weather event, which could begin affecting the state by late Saturday night into Sunday, including the threat of tornadoes.  On this video, I’ll bring you up to date on the latest details and timing.  And, looking ahead, there could be another potent severe weather threat 3-4 days later.  Now is the time for us to prepare.

 

Nice quiet warm day here today while a historic April Blizzard system batters the plains states and upper Midwest.

Dangerous severe weather ingredients coming together Saturday night and Sunday across the Gulf South.  Significant severe weather risk looming including a potential tornado outbreak.

Unusually strong severe weather threat Saturday in MS, LA , and as far east as north central and west Alabama through 7AM Sunday AM.

The rest of Alabama is included in the Severe Risk beginning at 7AM Sunday and through the day.  Looks like a potentially significant tornado risk.

Another potentially significant severe weather threat by the middle of next week.