Good morning!  Today should be another nearly perfect Fall day with lots of sunshine.  Highs will be in the upper 70’s to near 80 Today.  Nights are not be as cool.  Our dry weather pattern is about to end.  Scattered showers and storms are expected on Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance Monday through Wednesday, as a storm system slides eastward across the Gulf states.  Fingers crossed for some beneficial rainfall as the drought worsens.  SPC has a Marginal Severe Risk for Sunday across much of southwest and south Alabama. Expect much cooler air by mid to late week as the month of October comes to an end.  Halloween looks quite cool this year!    Here’s my Brief Video Forecast Discussion. 

TODAY:  Mostly sunny..  Comfortable humidity.  High 78  Increasing clouds tonight.   Not quite as cool.  Low 56.   (Normal 78/51)

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Scattered showers and storms are expected on Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance Monday through Wednesday, as a storm system slides eastward across the Gulf states.  

Here’s the set up on Sunday/Monday as a storm system moves east across the Gulf states.

SPC has a Marginal Severe Risk for Sunday across much of southwest and south Alabama.

Here’s the 10 Day model blend temperature trend.  Expect much cooler air by mid to late week as the month of October comes to an end.  Coolest of the season by far.

This map looks great and very hopeful, especially in a Drought.

Here are some rainfall probabilities as you get your weekend started.

25-40% chance of 2” of rain through Wednesday, generally across the western half of Central Alabama

50-80% chance of at least 1” of rain through Wednesday, generally across the western half of Central Alabama

Future radar on Sunday and Sunday night.

TROPICAL:

Mellissa is not quite a hurricane yet, with 70 mph winds, but it is close..  It is expected to become a major hurricane over the weekend as it slowly meanders in the Caribbean.  It’s likely to become at least a Cat 4 hurricane with potentially disastrous and historic damage for Jamaica.  A potential disaster is looming. NHC:  ..MELISSA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY……LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND..

Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing.

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The models indicate Melissa will not move much through Monday.  Then eventually curving into the Atlantic.

The EURO Ensemble Members shows the forecast dilemma involving Melissa, especially for Jamaica Eastern Cuba, Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  Monitor Melissa

closely.  There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,

damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing.

The next scheduled Blog update and Video Discussion is scheduled for Monday morning in the 4 o’clock hour.   Have a nice weekend!  

–Rich