Good Morning! The rain chances are not zero today, but there won’t be many showers on the radar this afternoon. The big story again today and tomorrow is the heat – with Triple Digit Heat Indices again. On this video, we’ll look ahead to better rain chances by the weekend. And, we’re still watching the approach of a ‘cool’ front into Alabama next week. But, the question remains…will the front be able to make it all the way through the state? New model runs are not conclusive.
Another very HOT day today. Triple digit Heat Index. Showers will be scarce.
Good news… The chance of seeing some cooling downpours will get a better Friday through the weekend and much better rain chances next week.
Showers will become a little more numerous by the weekend. Please watch the Beach Flags. It’s been a difficult week for the Rip Current. Lots of water rescues.
Good Morning! As storms thin out in number, the heat is returning in a big way. We’ll look at some very hot mid and late week temperatures. Looks like those dreaded words: ‘triple digit heat indices’. We’ll be back. But, I have updated the rain chance for the weekend. Could we better rain chances? And, what about the prospects for a rare summer ‘cool front’ next week? I’ll cover it all for you on your Tuesday morning weather briefing.
Storms thin out today…as the heat builds…
Mid and late week…triple digit heat indices are back.
Another big heatwave high will dominate much of the eastern US by mid and late week.
HOT HOT HOT through much of the week ahead. Showers will be few and far between, until this weekend when storms will become more numerous.
Even though Barry is several hundred miles away, in western Louisiana, it still will have an influence on our weather today. Like yesterday, showers and thunderstorms will blossom with the daytime heating. There will be local tropical downpours, again. But, tomorrow, as Barry ‘s tropical plume lifts to the north, our storms will thin out. By Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, storms will be “few and far between”, as temperatures climb back to the mid 90’s.
Here’s Barry’s interesting and unusual track from a disturbance in Tennessee a few days ago to a landfalling Hurricane in Louisiana. The NHC forecast cone extends into Missouri. That’s where the “seed” of Barry formed several days ago.
TODAY: There will be many dry hours. But, scattered to numerous showers & storms will be roaming around from mid morning through early evening. High in the upper 80’s. Low tonight mid 70’s.
Here’s just a sample of Future Radar this afternoon, which will give you general sense on the type of coverage we’re likely to see. Tropical downpours, again.
TROPICAL TORNADO THREAT?: Over the western third of Alabama, it’s possible some of the cells will start to rotate today. A few tropical tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL: Most of us will see under an inch of rain today. Heavier totals are likely across the western third of the state. The excessive rainfall totals will stay west of Alabama. Drenching rains are expected from Louisiana and Mississippi today and shifting northward across the mid south over the next few days.
NEXT FEW DAYS: As Barry pulls away, our rain chances will thin out back to “slim and none” as we move toward mid week. Meanwhile, the heat will build again. We’ll be back to the mid 90’s
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Invest 93-L, which was out in the Tropical Atlantic, has fizzled. Looks like the tropics will be quiet in the week ahead.
I’ll have a complete video update Monday morning, online by 4:45AM. Have a nice Sunday. I’ll see you in the morning.
10AM UPDATE: **BREAKING NEWS: #Barry is now an official Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 MPH, as the center is now moving onto the Louisiana coast. Now located 40 miles south of Lafayette, LA., moving northwest at 6 mph. On this course, the hurricane will move through south Louisiana during the day.
EARLY MORNING BLOG UPDATE:
“Barry” is expected to be a hurricane at landfall on the Louisiana coast later today. The center will likely cross around 10AM . Barry’s track has been nudged slightly westward. For Alabama, that means less of a chance of tropical tornadoes. In fact, except for coastal Alabama, the tornado threat has been removed. We will, however, experience some tropical rain bands with locally heavy downpours, enhanced by daytime heating today and Sunday. Rainfall amounts will vary quite a bit from maybe .50” near the Georgia border, to near 4” in west Alabama, and 5-7” on the coast.
TODAY & SUNDAY: Periods of scattered to numerous showers & storms, becoming more numerous, especially during the day and into the evening. Locally heavy downpours in the stronger storms. There will be many hours when it will be completely dry, until the next tropical rainband arrives. Highs today and Sunday upper 80’s to near 90. Low tonight 75.
Here’s a Future Radar loop from the one of the hi-res models. (NAM) The loop runs from 7AM Saturday to 8Pm Sunday evening. I wanted you to get a sense of how these tropical rainbands will tease us from time to time with heavy rain, but there will be many dry hours in between.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: Rainfall will vary quite a bit from maybe .50” near the Georgia border, to near 4” in west Alabama, and 5-7” on the coast. Keep in mind, these are “general/average” guidelines. Locally, some towns could see some much higher totals. The rainfall distribution will not be smooth.
TROPICAL TORNADO RISK: With the track of Barry nudged westward, the BEST news is the tropical tornado threat risk for Alabama has decreased quite a bit, except in coastal Alabama, where the risk continues, especially today and tonight.
NEXT FEW DAYS: After the weekend, showers and storms will start to decrease in number Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, storms will be few and far between, and we will start to heat up again.
I will have another forecast update tomorrow morning. There will be additional posts and updates as needed between now and then. Have a nice weekend. Stay weather aware.
Tropical Storm Barry is gaining strength in the north central Gulf. We’re on the wet side of this storm. Barry’s tropical moisture plume will affect Alabama with increased tropical showers and storms through Sunday. I have new estimates on how much rain we could see. Barry’s tornado threat will probably stay west of us. I’ll show when Barry will exit our neighborhood, and when our forecast returns to normal. Plus, there is a brand new “X” on the map in the tropical Atlantic.