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Tropical Storm Warning Along The Alabama/NW Florida Coast

4:00PM UPDATE:  

 

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16: SYSTEM REMAINS unorganized. No way to give it Trop Storm status at the moment. NHC “WHILE IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEFORE LANDFALL”

 

Invest 96-L has now become Potential Tropical Cyclone 16.   The National Hurricane Center takes and action like this when they need issue Warning on the coast ahead of the an actual tropical storm forming.   (The next name available is Nestor by the way)   The system is expected to become a Tropical Storm or Sub-tropical storm later today or this evening.  Air Force RECON will investigate the system today.  Winds are currently at 35 mph.  A tropical storm would be 40 mph.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

CONE CLOSE-UP:

Notice the storm is forecast to have 65 mph winds Friday evening at 7PM well south of the Mobile Bay, coming ashore somewhere along the north central Gulf coast probably in Florida as it continues moving rapidly northeast.  They have it as a 50 mph Post Tropical Storm not far from Dothan at 7AM Saturday morning.

UPDATED RAINFALL POTENTIAL:  

The tropical storm will bring good rain to coastal and extreme south Alabama,  but notice how the rainfall numbers quickly trail off farther north.  Maybe .50″ as far north as Montgomery.  BUT, There will be another surge of rain with the cold front Monday night.

 

EARLY MORNING UPDATE: 

Good Morning!  Jacket weather this morning.  We’re running more than 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.  Text-book perfect weather is on today’s menu.  But, as I have been telling you all week, we’re closely monitoring future developments in the Gulf of Mexico.  It is now likely we’ll see at a Tropical Depression head for the northern Gulf coast by Friday night into Saturday.  How will this affect our weather?  What’s the timetable for the worst weather on the coast?  We’ll look ahead to a strong cold front Monday night.  Any severe weather with this next system?

 

Jacket weather this morning and again tonight.  We’re running 20+ degrees cooler than yesterday morning.  Great day today.

NHC now says it is likely that this Gulf  system will become a tropical or sub-tropical depression.

The Tropical or sub tropical system will develop quickly.  It’ll be south of Mobile Bay late Friday night.   Rain enters the state at some point Friday night and continues on Saturday as the system moves northeastward.

Euro model shows the swath of heaviest rainfall with this developing sub-tropical or tropical system as it heads for the northern Gulf coast.

Strong Cold front moves through the state Monday night.  Could there be a few strong storms ahead of the front?  Much cooler air follows.

Good chance of showers from the tropical system Saturday.  I have now taken rain out of the Sunday forecast.  Strong cold frornt sweeps through Monday night.  Line of strong storms possible.  MUCH cooler behind the front.

Notice how each cold front through the end of the month brings colder and colder nights.

Cold Front Ushers in Some Chilly Nights Ahead – WEDNESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!   Most of us saw very beneficial, drenching rain in the past 24 hours, and now here comes the Cold Front we’ve been talking about.  It sweeps across Alabama today and ushers in some chilly nights ahead.  Looks like a lot of us could see the upper 40’s for the first time this Fall.  Jacket Weather.  Now, We’re watching the Gulf of Mexico.  A tropical Low could bring Alabama more rain the weekend.  And, get ready.  I see two more impressive Cold Fronts before this month is over.

 

 

Cold front sweeps across the state today.  Maybe a couple of leftover morning showers.  Look for afternoon improvement.  Tonight will be the coolest night since last April.  Jacket weather.

Couple of chilly nights and mornings.  Very comfortable days Thursday and Friday.  Over thew weekend…all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical low could bring rain to the Gulf States.  Read more below.

 

Could there be a Tropical Depression developing in the Gulf over the next few days?  NHC gives 40% odds of development.  Looks like it will impact our forecast by the weekend.

Will it just be a Tropical Low or will it become a Tropical Depression?  We don’t know.  We just want the rain.  Here’s the EURO model solution.  The GFS is father east with this Low.

With the potential of rain from the Gulf Low and the next cold front which brings us more rain next Monday Night into Tuesday…some places could see another couple of inches, if everything falls into place perfectly.

This PAST rain in the last 24 hours.  Doppler Radar estimates.  It shows you got the best rainfall totals and who didn’t Much of the River Region had 1 to 2″…but locally 2-3″.   WOW…look at the rain totals west of I-65.  Impressive.  We expected a lot of rain.  We got a lot.

 

Including today’s cold front, a total of three more cold fronts between now and the end of October.

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Heavy Rain Threat – Cold front Approaching – TUESDAY VIDEO

We have much to talk about.  Today, Alabama is in a squeeze play between two fronts.  Locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible across central and south Alabama.  One to three inches will be common.  A few spots could see more.  A couple of storms could reach severe limits.  Then, get ready for a cool change.  A strong cold front sweeps across the state Wednesday,  ending the rain and ushering in some Jacket Weather Nights.  And, that’s not all.  We’ll be watching the Gulf of Mexico by late this week.  I’ll break down all the details on your Tuesday morning weather briefing.

 

Squeeze play between two fronts:  A Swath of heavy rain sets up across central and south Alabama today.

Rainfall amounts could be excessive in spots.  Most places will see 1 to 3″, but a few places could see more than that.

The Storm Prediction Center says some storms could reach severe limits with damaging wind gusts to 60+ mph possible in a couple of the storms.

The Cold front shuts off the rain tomorrow morning.  Much cooler air follows.  Jacket Weather Nights and mornings for a couple of days.  Then showers return this weekend as we watch the Gulf.

That Area To Watch in the Gulf has our attention.  A tropical system could have an impact on our weather by the weekend.

 

A Tropical Low of some sort could impact our weather this weekend.  We’ll be on the west side of it.  Could this system devloop into a Tropical Depression by landfall?   Stay tuned…..

 

Cold front #1 tomorrow.  Then, a weekend warm up.  Strong cold front number two next week, followed by the coldest nights yet.  Another front near the end of the week.

Significant Rainfall Possible – Then, Much Cooler Air – MONDAY VIDEO

Good morning! Get ready for big changes ahead.  Looks like the potential for a significant rainfall event beginning overnight tonight through Tuesday until a strong cold front shuts off the rain by mid-day Wednesday.  Where will the heaviest band of rain be?  I have an update on who could see the heaviest rain.  Then, how chilly does it get behind the Cold Front?  Will jackets need to come out of the closet.  And, a tropical Low in the Gulf could affect next weekend’s weather.  I’ll bring you up to speed on your Monday morning personal weather briefing.

That front near the coast will be a player later today and tonight, as it begins to migrate northward.  Heavy rain begins in the wee hours of the morning.  Today will the warmest day of this week.  Happy Columbus Day.

Locally heavy rain, at times, especially from late Monday night through mid day Wednesday, when a strong cold front shuts off the rain.

This map speaks for itself.  Looks a significant rainfall eve for many of us.  See where the heaviest rain band has now shifted?  Looks nice, huh?

After the Strong Cold Front brings an end to the heavy rain by Mid Day Wednesday, get ready for sharply cooler weather for 2-3 days.  Jackets ready?   Rain returns next weekend.

Strong Cold Front #1  Wednesday, with the chillest mornings on Thursday & Friday.  Another strong cold front around October 25th, and a series of chilly mornings after that.

That Area to Watch in the Caribbean, will move into the Gulf.  From that, a Tropical Low could have an impact on our weekend weather here.  Maybe.  Just saying….

 

 

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Rain Prospects Improving! – Cold Front This Week

The news I have for you this morning is very encouraging. Rain is creeping back into the forecast today and tomorrow.  But, we may be in for potentially significant rainfall event Monday night through Wednesday morning.  The rain will end as a strong cold front slices through the state.  The air behind this front will set the stage for some very chilly nights.  Get ready!  The next few days will quite different than anything we’ve seen since the Spring.

Set-up today shows Gulf moisture riding up and over cooler air at the surface.  That’s called overriding.  Scattered showers.

TODAY:  Mostly cloudy.  Risk of scattered showers, today and tonight.  Comfortable.  High 76.  Low tonight 61.  West wind 5 to 10 mph.

TALLADEGA:  50/50 chance of showers during the cup race.  High 72.  The race begins at 1.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Well, this graphic has been this drama-filled for 6 months.  The highlights are – potential for a significant rainfall totals Monday night through Wednesday morning.  At this point, I am not expecting severe weather, but there may be some thunder involved. Then, a strong cold front will usher in some much cooler air.  Get ready for chilly nights Wednesday night through Friday night.  We’ll be watching the Gulf developments to see if Impacts our forecast for next weekend.

Here’s the position of the strong cold front Wednesday morning that will shut off the rain.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL?:   Most of us should see 1 to 3” of rain.  But, where the heaviest rainfall corridor will set-up is up for debate.  The EURO and the GFS models are shifting southward with that band.  (a lot of us would love to see that!)   The NAM is still farther north near the I-20 corridor, with the heavier band.  So, I decided to show you this particular map, because it displays the best blend of model solutions.

TROPICAL ISSUES?:   I don’t want to make a big deal about this at all.  But, it is in “our backyard”, so I will briefly note that the GFS tries to develop a tropical low in the western Gulf later this week and track it toward the northern Gulf coast.  I’ll leave it at that.    Should we worry about that?  I don’t see why.

LONGER RANGE:  Besides the strong cold front Wednesday, we see another significant cold front somewhere around October 22/23rd.  We are getting into a much more active part of our year.  Jackets ready?

I will have a video update for you first thing tomorrow morning at 4:45AM.   Have a nice Sunday!  I miss Braves baseball already.  And, I could care less about the NFL anymore.  Maybe I’ll sample the race from Talladega.

–Rich