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Cold Fronts Approach – Big Changes – TUESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  Two cold fronts are on the way.  The first will deliver a band of showers and possibly a thunderstorm by mid-day.  The second will deliver sharply colder air, as we drop from the 70’s to the 50’s for highs for the rest of the week.  On this video I have an update on timing and details.  Storm system number two could affect us by the end of the week.  What about the weekend.  I’ll show you another cold blast next week, too.

 

Our high temperature will occur early in the day, as cold front number one brings in a line of showers (thundershowers) by mid-day.  Cooler this afternoon.  Rain chance continues tonight.

There will be a nasty ribbon of snow & ice and a wintry mix from Texas to Arkansas to Tennessee, possibly affecting north MS and extreme north Alabama late tonight and early Wednesday.

MUCH Colder Wednesday and Thursday.  More rain by Thursday night into Friday.  The shower threat ends Saturday.  Mild weekend.  Back in the 60’s

Gulf storm system could bring drenching rain to the southeast part of the state on Friday.

 

 

Big Changes This Week – WARM to WET to COLDER – MONDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  Get ready. We have an active weather week ahead.  It starts off relatively quiet today – Warm and mostly dry.  The first of two fronts moves through tomorrow with showers & storms.  Front number two delivers much colder air by Wednesday.  But, that’s only part of a complicated forecast.  There are more “wrinkles” developing for later in the week, and beyond.  I’ll break down the details for you on your Monday morning personal weather briefing.

 

Very warm for December today, and relatively quiet, with a small rain chance today…slightly better rain chance overnight tonight.

The first of Two fronts brings a band of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms through the state on Tuesday.

So, We’ll be sampling some much cooler air by Wednesday through Friday, BUT the the really, really cold air will MISS Alabama this time.  This is GOOD news, of course….

Very warm today and Tuesday.  MUCH cooler Wednesday through Friday.  Risk of showers each day.

Ignore specific temperatures on this GFS Raw Temperature guidance for the next 16 days.  We are only looking at trends.  Looks like we’ll see at least three important Cold Fronts between now and Christmas.  Fortunately the cold air with each of these will not linger too long.  I don’t see ANY extreme or harsh arctic air in the next two weeks or so.

 

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Active Weather Week Ahead

Good morning!  After a simply beautiful Saturday, we have a pretty decent Sunday ahead of us.  But, get ready.   The week ahead will be quite active.  It will be rather wet at times.  Monday and Tuesday will be warm.  The rest of the week will be chilly, grey, with a risk of showers persisting.  This week’s Cold Front will linger near the coast.  So, we will only ‘sample’ that  very cold airmass which will affect so much of our nation this week.

TODAY:  Mostly cloudy.  Can’t rule out an isolated shower today or tonight.  Our high of 63 is just about normal.  For the hunters: East wind at 5 to 10 mph.  Mild overnight…low 57.  (Normal low 39).

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Monday’s high will be well into the 70’s, with a small rain chance daytime.  The better rain chance comes in later Monday night and Tuesday.  A few thunderstorms are possible.  Wednesday through Friday will be quite a bit  colder with the risk of showers persisting.  I do not see any freezing nights this week.

Rainfall amounts could be rather generous in spots this week, deepening on where you live.   Some of us could see an inch or more through Thursday.

LOOKING AHEAD:  These long range model trends don’t always work out, but the GFS has shown a lot of consistency in bringing in a shot of very cold air sometime around December 18-20th.   How cold…and how long? We will continue to monitor.

We had a nice time in Millbrook yesterday.  It was a great day for a Christmas parade, and it was nice to see so many of you.

I will have a video update for you first thing tomorrow morning at 4:45AM.   Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Big Changes Ahead Soon – Two Cold Fronts Next Week

Good morning!  After a foggy start this morning, we should have a dry, cloudy, mild day ahead.  The weather should cooperate in a big way for various Christmas festivities today in places like Millbrook,  Tallassee, Luverne, Tuskeegee, Demopolis…just to name a few.  Rain chances are under 20% today and close to 20% tomorrow.  But, on the Blog update we’ll talk about a very active week ahead.  Big changes are on the way.

The Dense Fog Advisory for this morning was cancelled…

 

TODAY & Sunday:   We have a nice day underway.  Sun & cloud mix.  Clouds increasing later.   Should be dry.  Today’s high 64.  (Normal 62)  Low tonight 49.  (Normal 39).    SUNDAY will be cloudy.  An isolated shower is possible (20% Chance).  High 63

BIG CHANGES THIS WEEK – Two Cold Fronts:   Warm Monday, with mid 70’s.  Showers and thunderstorms move in Monday night into Tuesday ahead of Cold Front number one.  No severe weather is anticipated.  Then, the second cold front, will deliver a Big Temperature plunge for mid week.  Wednesday & Thursday’s  highs will be about 25 degrees colder.

Here’s the Tuesday set-up:  The first front arrives daytime Tuesday.. The second front arrives overnight Tuesday night. Much colder behind the second front.

MUCH COLDER AIR :  Harsh Arctic air is coming into the United States.   The heart of the Arctic Air will stay well north of US.  So, while we will be much colder, we will only sample this latest “Arctic Chunk”.  Frigid air will miss us, this time.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Comfortable Sunday, with only a tiny rain chance.  Warm Monday.  Showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.  Mild Tuesday, before much colder air arrives by Tuesday night and through mid week.  It will be a BIG change.   More rain arrives at the end of next week.

MULTIPLE SHOTS OF COLD AIR:  Over the next couple of weeks or so, we will see multiple shots of COLD air.  Here’s one more snapshot.  This is the GFS model showing some pretty cold air covering much of the nation on Wednesday, December 18th.  If this verifies, it would be COLDER than the airmass we will experience this week.  A bigger sample of Arctic Air.

Have a great Saturday!  Enjoy the Parades and Tree lightings.

 

-Rich

Rain Returns Today – Drier Saturday – Big Changes Next Week – FRIDAY VIDEO

Happy Friday!  Be prepared to dodge some raindrops from time to time.  A fast moving storm system will bring showers and a few thunderstorms today.  Best chance will be afternoon and into the early evening, but just about any time today or tonight is fair game.   I’ll update the weekend for you.  There’s a lot of Christmas events tonight and Saturday.  Saturday is looking like a better day.  The next “big deal” for us involves an approaching front which will bring more rain & storms early next week, before it turns much colder.  But, what about Arctic Air?  I’ll show you temperature trends for the next 2+ weeks.

 

Storm system to the west of us early this morning will track southeastward into Alabama today and into SW Alabama by this evening.

Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are possible anytime today or tonight, but the most concentrated rain chance would be in the afternoon and early evening.

Saturday and Sunday are mostly DRY, however, a couple of isolated showers here and there can’t be ruled out.  Rain chances both days are small.

Major frontal system will bring another round of showers and storms to the area overnight Monday night into Tuesday.  It will turn sharply colder on  Wednesday.

FORTUNATELY the COLDEST core of the next Arctic Chunk to enter the country will not come straight for us.  Looks like the coldest air will pass well north of Alabama, giving us just a sample.  A glancing blow.