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Intense Heat – More Slow Moving Storms –Monday Video

Good Morning! The risk for more drenching rains from random slow-moving storms continues today.  Outside of rain area, more intense heat on the weather menu with triple digit heat indices.  A frontal system will affect the state starting tomorrow and through late week.  I’ll tell you how that front could affect our rain chances.  I’ll walk you through the week ahead and we’ll check the tropics, on your Monday morning personal weather briefing.

 

Here’s a radar snapshot from one model late this afternoon.  More slow moving storms with torrential rainfall, more dangerous heat indices.

 

An approaching frontal system may actually increase the numbers of storms tomorrow as it heads toward central Alabama on Wednesday morning.

With the rain chances peaking on Tuesday, the number of storms may actually start to thin out a little but by late week.

 

The Dog days of Summer continue, but it has nothing to do with dogs.  They were historically the period following the heliacal rising of the star Sirius, which Greek and Roman astrology connected with heat, drought, sudden thunderstorms, lethargy, fever, mad dogs, and bad luck. They are now taken to be the hottest, most uncomfortable part of summer.

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Heat/Humidity & More Storms

We are stuck in a pattern which features, excessive heat & humidity, which leads to a wealth of random storms in the afternoon & evening.  No big changes are expected today & Monday.  However, a frontal system will approach the state Tuesday, causing rain chances to increase.  That front will try to move southward in the state Wednesday before stalling.  So, we’re expecting little or no relief in our part of the state front this front.

TODAY:  You know the drill.  Partial sunshine.  Very humid.  High around 93 (we had 94 yesterday).  Heat index 101-106.  Storms will fire-up in the daytime heat and become most numerous from mid afternoon into early evening, before fading out tonight.  Low tonight 75.  Have you heard this before?

By the way the western strip of counties are under a Heat Advisory again, where the heat index is likely to be 105 or higher.

FUTURE RADAR:  Here’s the hi-res NAM model.  It shows storms getting a good start after lunch.  But, this model shows quite a peak in storm-coverage in the 4 to 7PM hours today.  That’s just what this model shows.  We’ll see if it plays out that way..

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Better than normal rain chances continue.  The storms reach a peak on Tuesday & Tuesday night with that front approaching.  Storms may thin out a little bit by late week.

Here’s a peek at the frontal system’s approach and movement through Wednesday.  It will probably stall  in the central counties Wednesday/Thursday.

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS:   If you care, Sub-tropical Storm Beryl continues to crawl northeast in the Atlantic, well off the US coastline.  Meanwhile, the rest of the tropics are quiet and boring, for now.

Have a great Sunday!  I’ll have a complete video will be Monday morning by 4:45AM.

Rich

WEEKEND UPDATE:  Intense Heat & More Strong Storms

Yesterday was literally feast or famine.  Strong storms were numerous on the radar, but storm movement was slow.  Some storms were stationary.  Some spots had more than 2” of rain, while other neighborhoods barely had a few drops.  Today will be very similar to yesterday.  Intense heat will lead to another round of random storms.  Some storms will be rather intense. This rather active period of numerous storms will continue for at least the next 4 days. Stay weather aware, and go indoors when you hear thunder.

TODAY:  Heat advisory is in effect again today, for much of central Alabama.  The heat index will be near the 105 danger range.  Storms will fire up, just about any hour.  But, they will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours.  Steering currents are weak, so the storms will be slow moving, producing torrential downpours and intense lightning.  High today in the low to mid 90’s.  Low tonight in the mid 70’s.

FUTURE RADAR: Here’s one model idea of the potential coverage of the storms today.  Storms will be numerous, especially from lunchtime on.  Like yesterday, storms will be very slow movers, which will lead to heavy rainfall totals and potential flooding in spots. The stronger storms will produce gusty winds to 40 mph and dangerous, intense cloud to ground lightning. Our weather app will really come in handy.  It will not only show you where the storms are, but you can track the lightning and see which way the storms area moving. Here’s a few future radar snapshots.

 

FEAST OR FAMINE:   Here’s what I mean when I say feast or famine. This is a radar snapshot from about 4 o’clock yesterday afternoon. My house is the circle in the middle, in east Montgomery. The storm just to the north of me was intense with torrential rainfall but it was not moving. My buddy 2 mikes NE of me had 2.33”. My total was .06”.! How about THAT for feast or famine. Today will be the same. Storms with intense rainfall and lightning but hardly moving. Good luck on your rain chances.

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:  The atmosphere will continue to be very moist, and very conducive to widespread showers & storms for each of the next 4 days.  A frontal system moving into the state Tuesday, may make the storms even more numerous, as the front tries to move southward.  Not much day to day changes are expected.

 

BEACH FORECAST:  Rain chances are getting better, even down at the beach.  It won’t rain all the time, but storms will be a little more numerous than normal.

 

TROPICAL UPDATE:.  The only system NHC is highlighting, continues to be the Remnants of Beryl, well off the US coastline.  The Hurricane season still says there is a low 30% chance of development.  The rest of the tropics are quiet for now.

Have a great weekend!  I’ll have another blog update early Sunday morning.  Next video will be Monday morning at 4:45AM.

Rich

Weekend Rain Chances Improving – Friday the 13th Video

Happy Friday the 13th!  The intense summer heat is still in place, but your odds of encountering a cooling shower is getting better.  I’ll bring you up to date on our escalating weekend rain chances for here and the Gulf Coast beaches.  Some of us will be dodging weekend rain drops.  How long will the trend last?  We’ll take a peek into next week, and look for any signs of relief, including a tropical update.

 

Big heat can produce Big storms.  Look for dangerous triple digit heat indices today.  Scattered storms will cool off a few lucky towns.

 

Look for escalating rain chances this weekend and into early next week, with a better than normal chance of those pop up storms.

 

Chance of encountering a “pop-up” storm will increase each day through the weekend down at the Beach.  Much of the time will be dry.

NHC has now lowered the chance that Beryl will regenerate to 30%   The rest of the tropics are quiet.

Heat, Humidity, Random Storms – THURSDAY Video

Good morning!    We make it to 96 yesterday with a 102 Heat Index and I think we’ll be in the same neighborhood today.  But what about showers?  There weren’t many yesterday.  I’ll show you future radar.  Some towns could get wet today. I’ve updated the weekend outlook.  Rain chances may get a little better.  Plus, I’ve got the latest on Chris and Beryl out in the Atlantic, on your Thursday morning personal weather briefing.

We’re headed back to the mid 90’s with a heat index above 100.  But, rain chances are a little better today than the last 2 days….maybe 30% coverage.

 

Rain chances will get a little better toward the weekend.  Still, though, not every town will get wet.  Meanwhile, the heat and humidity is still in place.

Pretty routine Beach Forecast this weekend with rain chances 30 to 40%.

 

We are having a terrible year with 13 lightning deaths in the US so far, and the Southeast US is the target area.

 

Chris is still a hurricane racing off to the NE in the North Atlantic.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Beryl, which is very disorganized, has a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days according to NHC.