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SUNDAY UPDATE:  Endless Summer Rolls on – Slim Rain Chance This Week

Our taste of “Nicer Air” is about to start fading away.   That nice easterly breeze will be much more subtle.  Even though Fall officially begins tomorrow, there are hotter days in our future this week.  There’s a good chance we will be in Record High territory Wednesday through Saturday. We could be re-writing record books.  Our best opportunity to see a shower or two looks like Tuesday & Wednesday, with a weak frontal system in our state.  Maybe a few isolated showers, along and south of the front.  Otherwise, Endless Summer continues and so does our drought.

TODAY:  A good bit of sunshine.  Low humidity.  High 93.  Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.  Low tonight 66.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Heating up.  Mid 90s Monday through Wednesday.  Upper 90s Thursday through Saturday.  Record high territory from Wednesday on.  Isolated showers are possible with that weak front on Tuesday and Wednesday, but as you can see below, I have the rain chance very small.

DROUGHT CONTINUES:  Except for the tiny rain chance on Tuesday and Wednesday, our rain prospects for the next 7 days in Alabama are terrible.  It’s been three weeks since the airport recorded any rainfall.  We appear to be headed for the driest September in Montgomery weather history.

TROPICAL UPDATE:  We had a birth in the tropics at 4AM this morning, 100 miles east of Grenada in the Windward Islands.  Tropical storm Warning for some of the islands.  This system, is expected to take a hard right turn into the Atlantic over the next few days.  It will not threaten the United States.  Jerry is the other tropical storm.  It will also miss the U.S., as it curves into the open Atlantic.  Invest 90-L coming off Africa could become a Depression or Tropical Storm Lorenzo later toady.

Farther down the road, I just thought I would give you a peak at this.  The Euro model advertises some potential mischief in the Gulf in about 10 days.  It has my attention.

FALL BEGINS TOMORROW:  Today is the last day of Summer.  Fall officially begins in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, at 2:50AM CDT.  The Autumnal Equinox.  But summer heat will roll on and on.

I will have a video update for you first thing tomorrow morning at 4:45AM.   Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Nice Now – Hotter Days Ahead – Rain Chance Slim to None

We’re still enjoying comfortable nights and mornings, and low humidity days.  It’s a nice weekend forecast.  But, now let’s talk about the elephant in the room.  The Drought continues to grow.  On this Blog Update, you will see, I have a tiny chance of a shower or 2 in the Tuesday & Wednesday forecast, but, in general, our rain chance for the next 7 to 10 days is “slim to none”.  And, that’s not all.  We will be heating up to the mid 90’s for much of  next week, and upper 90’s by late week.  Record Highs will be in jeopardy Wednesday through Saturday, at least.

Here’s the set-up this morning.  That strong high anchored along the Atlantic coast, continues to circulate a nice easterly breeze into Alabama.

TODAY:   A Comfortably cool morning.  It will be hot today, with a high of 92, but the humidity will be very low, and we’ll still have a little east breeze at 5 to 10  mph.  Low tonight, back to the comfortable mid 60’s.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Heating up.  Mid 90’s Monday through Wednesday.  Upper 90’s by Thursday and Friday.  Record Highs will be in jeopardy Wednesday through Saturday.  A weak front will enter north Alabama Tuesday and try to slide south, before returning northward on Wednesday.  I will mention a 20% chance of showers for now.

RAIN PROSPECTS:  The Seven Day rainfall potential map continues to look depressing.  Besides that tiny chance Tuesday and Wednesday, our rain chances are slim to none.

DAY 20 since the last rain at the airport.  Looks like we could possibly have the driest September in Montgomery Weather History, perhaps breaking the 1923 record of .12″.

 

TROPICAL UPDATE:  Jerry has now weakened to a Tropical Storm, and is headed for the open Atlantic.  Down at a lower latitude, from the Caribbean to Africa, there are three Areas to Watch.  The system approaching the Leeward Islands has a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days.  The system, which has not even come off Africa yet, has a 90% chance of becoming a Depression or Tropical Storm.  In the week ahead we could see Karen and maybe Lorenzo, too.  Stay tuned.  The tropics continue busy.

FALL BEGINS MONDAY:  For what’s it’s worth, Fall officially begins in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, at 2:50AM CDT.  The Autumnal Equinox.  But Endless Summer rolls on.

– -.

Hope you have a nice Football Saturday!  How about those Atlanta Braves!  I’m so excited about the post season!

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend.   Pray for rain.

-Rich

Nice Change! – Tolerable Temps and Humidity – FRIDAY Video

Happy Friday!  It feels so much better early this morning.  Comfortable.  Our “nice change” continues today.  Tolerable humidity.  A little easterly breeze.  Comfortably cool tonight.  But, still dry.  On this video, we’ll look into the future.  Spoiler alert: it will get hotter again.  But, when can we expect any significant rainfall?  I have the extended outlook and a update on the tropics.

 

Did you like yesterday?   You’ll love today.  Our nice change continues, with tolerable temps, and humidity and another easterly breeze.  Comfortably cool tonight.

TOLERABLE weekend weather.  Really nice.  Still Dry, though.

Unfortunately we’re still dry next several days.  We will heat back to the mid 90’s Monday through Wednesday.

NEW DROUGHT MONITOR just out, shows an expanding drought in Alabama. Now 48% of the state is at least Level 1, and about 15% of Alabama is in moderate or severe drought.  

The prospects for rain in the next seven days looks awful in Alabama.

Jerry is now at Cat 2 hurricane in the tropical Atlantic with 105 mph winds.  Looks like it WILL make the Atlantic curve and have an encounter with Bermuda early next week.

There are three other Areas To Watch, from the Caribbean east to Africa.  These are low latitude systems and we’ll have to monitor their future paths very carefully for future Tropical Mischief in the Gulf.

 

 

Nice Heat Relief! – But, Still Dry – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  You will feel a big difference today.  After two 103 degree days, today will be about 13 degrees cooler, with a nice breeze!   The nights will pleasantly cooler.  How long will it last?   Spoiler alert: mid 90s will return in a few days.  We’ll look for raindrops on the horizon.  How long will this month-long dry pattern continue?  Plus, I have an update on the tropics, too.

 

The “backdoor cool front” has made it all the way through the state.  NICE heat relief today.   NICE breeze, too.  Cooler tonight, too.

We’ll be about 14 degrees cooler today at 4PM.  How about that!  It’s even cooler and nicer in GA and the Carolinas.

Comfortable for the next 3 days at least.  Tolerable humidity.  Cooler nights.  Hotter again Monday & Tuesday…still dry.

This looks ugly!   Rain prospects in Alabama for the next 7 days look dismal.

Humberto is a Cat 3 hurricane moving into the open Atlantic.  Jerry is almost a hurricane.  Two other areas to watch.

Jerry will become a hurricane today.  The official NHC forecast cone turns Jerry to the north before it gets to the Bahamas and the SE US.

 

 

“Backdoor” Heat Relief Soon – 10% Rain Chance Today – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Yesterday was the hottest day of the summer so far with a record high of 103.  We’re headed for triple digit record high territory again today.  But, some nice heat relief is on the way.  Starting tomorrow, we’ll shave close to 10 degrees of the daytime highs, with lows falling to the 60’s.  It will be a nice, and very noticeable change.  On this video, we’ll look ahead.  Are the any raindrops on the way?  Could there be  a couple of stray showers today? Our desperate search for rain continues.  Will we get any help from the tropics?

 

RECORD HIGH likely today, But, that blue line indicates a backdoor cool front which will bring us a little late week heat relief.  Could there be a stray shower along that front later?   Maybe…  I have the rain chances generally under 20%.

Yesterday was the hottest day of the summer so far.  Today, good chance we’ll tie or break the record.

HEAT relief next few days.  You will feel the difference….still dry though.

When the 7 day rainfall outlook has NO RAIN in Alabama that’s both are and concerning.

Imelda is dropping heavy rain over Texas.  Humberto is now a major Cat 3 hurricane in the Atlantic.  Jerry was just born in the tropical Atlantic and there are two more areas to watch.

Welcome to the world JERRY, a tropical storm and future hurricane, born at 4AM this morning.