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Showers & Storms Return – TUESDAY Video

Good morning!  Weather changes are underway, as the first of a series of disturbances brings showers and storms back to the area.  There will be a series of disturbances which brush by the area this week.  Our 80+ degree weather will be around through Thursday.  But, much cooler air will filter in by Friday.  Many questions remain about the Easter Sunday forecast.  But, it now appears a large storm system may bring showers and maybe some stronger storms to Alabama.  Timing and details are still a problem.  Could we see severe weather?  I’ll try to sort out the details.


That big upper low in the southwest US will launch a series of disturbances across the Deep South over the next few days.  Could the nmaib event be Easter Sunday?

FUTURE RADAR snapshot shows good coverage on the showers and storms this afternoon.

A few stronger storms can’t be ruled out, especially across the western counties this afternoon.  Marginal Severe Risk.

Showers and storms will be around from time to time in the week ahead.  We stay warm through Thursday.  Much cooler Friday.  Risk of thunderstorms increases over the weekend.  Growing threat of thunderstorms on Easter Sunday.  Could it be a severe weather event?

Here’s the EURO model solution for Easter Sunday.  Growing threat of thunderstorms on Easter Sunday.  Could it be a severe weather event?  Too many days out to make that kind of pronouncement yet.

MUCH cooler air follows the storm system.  Breezy much cooler Monday.

Don’t focus on the numbers.  This is only RAW model guidance..  We’re only looking at trends…and the trend show what could be a drastic cooldown during the early part of next week.  Stay tuned.

Very Warm Monday – Showers & Storms Return This Week – MONDAY Video

Good morning!  Our string of very warm days is not over yet.  Our week starts very warm and dry, today. Mid to upper 80’s appear likely.  But, a series of disturbances will bring showers and thundershowers back to the forecast at times during the week ahead.  The 80+ degree temperatures are locked in at least through mid-week.  But, many questions remain about late week and the Easter Weekend.  The models are in huge disagreement.  Will we see a significant Easter weekend storm system….or not?  I’ll show you what we know so far.

We are in the quiet zone today.  Dry and very warm.  Perhaps upper 80’s.  Record high is 89 in 1880.

Showers and thunderstorms make a comeback by tomorrow.

Highest rain chance on Tuesday, but periods of showers and storms will be in the forecast each day.  80’s through Thursday.  Cooler LATE WEEK.  Big question marks about Easter Weekend.  See below.

An Upper level “cut-off” Low in the southwestern US will present a forecast problem for us.  It will eject a series of disturbances at us as the week unfolds.  But, many questions remain on timing of what could be the big event.  Does it arrive Easter Sunday or later?

Will Easter weekend be stormy or no?  The GFS shows a fairly benign Sunday, with a chance of showers by Sunday night and Monday.  But, below, the Euro model depicts a very stormy Easter Sunday with the threat of severe weather.  So, right now, it would be smart for us to take a middle ground on the forecast.

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Showers Return This Week – Very Warm Series of Days

Good morning on this PALM SUNDAY!

A minor disturbance brought clouds and a few sprinkles over night to the southern half of the state. But, expect the sun to make an appearance by lunchtime or there about.

Our week ahead will start out dry & very warm Monday.  But, showers and thunderstorms return to our forecast  this week.  Rain chance varies from day to day.  Our string of 80+ degree days will continue through the week ahead.

But hold the phone.  I have my eyes on a potentially “big deal” Easter Weekend storm system.  And, keep reading.  Jacket weather may be in our future by mid-month.  Could we be headed for a cool snap?

TODAY:   Cloudy this morning.  Then, gradually we’ll see some clearing by mid-day, into the afternoon.  Warm again.  High near 84, which is exactly what we had yesterday in Montgomery.  Mainly clear and mild tonight.  Low 60.

Here’s a snapshot of Future Clouds at 10AM & Noon from the NAM model.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Monday will be like a day in June.  Lots of sun.  High 87.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday.  Scattered showers and storms at times Wednesday through Friday.  Continued very warm with highs well up in the 80’s

RAINFALL POTENTIAL:  Through Friday, nothing excessive, but some of us could perhaps see an inch or more of rain.  These are averages.  However, with thunderstorms, some towns could get some locally heavier amounts.  Then.. look for, perhaps, a more significant rainfall potential over Easter Weekend.

NEXT “BIG DEAL” STORM SYSTEM:  A potentially significant storm system, during Easter weekend, has my attention.  The models do not agree on the details.  Here’s a snapshot of early evening Saturday.  It shows a storm system which could produce some strong to severe storms.  We’ll continue to watch it in the week ahead.  This is the EURO model, by the way (ECMWF).

MID MONTH COOL SNAP?:  Don’t put away the jackets yet.  Here’s a peek of the temperature anomaly map for April 15th.  It shows much of the nation below normal to MUCH below normal in spots.  This is not a forecast yet.  This is just a sample of some raw model data.  I’ll keep you posted.  This would definitely be jacket weather if it verifies.

I hope you are staying safe and well!   At least the weather is nice.  My isolation plans for today – I’m going to fire up the grill.  New York strips are on the menu, twice baked potatoes & garden salad.  Steak and music, poolside.  Isolation doesn’t have to suck. 😊  Pool is a little cool, but not awful.  Pool temp 76°.

By the way, I bought the steaks at Peppertree Steaks and Wine shop.  They came right to my car.  I ordered the steaks, the twice baked potatoes, and the salad.  Five minutes later they brought it to my car.  No grocery store long lines!  (They are closed Sunday, through)

I will have a Video for you bright and early tomorrow morning, posted by 4:45 AM.    Have a nice Sunday!

I’ll see you in the morning.


SATURDAY UPDATE:  Dry Weekend – Warmer Days – Active Next week

If you are enjoying this current string of beautiful weather, you will love today.  In fact, this first weekend of April should be pretty nice.  The warming trend continues.  Yesterday’s high was 80.  We will be in the low 80’s today and closer to the mid 80’s on Sunday.

Next week looks active.  Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area Monday night through Tuesday.  The forecast for the rest of next week is a little more complicated, but periods of showers and storms are in the cards from Wednesday through Good Friday.

Details are sketchy, but it appears that more significant storm system will effect us on Easter weekend.  It’s possible some storms with this storm system could be severe.  Then, the models hint at some much cooler air.

The storm system to the west of us will be held at bay for the next 2-3 days, as a upper level high pressure ridge  builds above us.

TODAY:    Nice day.  Sun and cloud mix.  Warmer.  High 82.  Not as cool tonight.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 59.  Light north wind 5 to 10 mph.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Dry Sunday and mainly dry Monday, until Monday night.  Warming trend continues.  Showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday.  Periods of showers and storms Wednesday through Friday.

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Today’s Blog update is short and sweet.  I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend.  Stay safe and well.


High and Dry For Now – Warming Trend Ahead – FRIDAY Video

Good morning!  If you liked yesterday, you’ll love today.  For at least the next few days, Alabama is high and dry.  The days will be warmer, and even the nighttime chill is fading.  At least through the weekend we should be mainly dry.  But, it’s looking more and more like we have an active weather week ahead.  I have updated the details of wetter and potentially stormier pattern beginning early next week.

GREAT day ahead today…with lots of sun and the warming trend continues…

After 73 yesterday…we should be closer to 80 today.

Still high and dry through the weekend as the warming trend continues.  Next week becomes more active as showers and storms return.


The Next BIG DEAL storm system is about a week away.  This could be a severe weather situation.  Too early to be sure.

Behind that big storm system, looks like some much cooler air could follow.  BIG cool down indicated.