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Latest Forecast

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Moisture & Humidity Makes a Comeback

Looks like the five day streak of 100+ degree Temperatures may be over.  Yesterday Montgomery tied the Record High from 2000 at 102.

Today, though, moisture from the Gulf will migrate northward along with a frontal system.  Humidity returns and so does the chance of spotty thunderstorms.  Storms will be in more generous supply in the week ahead.

TODAY:   You’ll feel the difference.  With dewpoints in the 70’s returning, instead of the 50’s like the last two days.  That’s a huge difference.  Look for a  sun & cloud mix.  High in the upper 90’s .  Let’s say around 97.  Spotty thunderstorms will be around.  The heat index will range from about 102 to 105.  Low tonight mid 70’s.

A Future Radar Snapshot, just as an example on possible coverage later today.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Showers & storms return to the forecast.  There will be a generous supply each day, particularly Tuesday through Friday.  Highs mostly in the mid 90’s.  Triple digit heat indices.  We may be close to the criteria for a Heat Advisory some days.

TROPICAL UPDATE:  That “Area of Watch” off the Southeast Coast has graduated and has become Invest 97-L.  NHC gives it a 30% chance of development, but many models give this system a decent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Chantal in the next 60 hours off the Middle Atlantic Coast.  The only other area worth watching right now is closer to our shore along the northern Gulf coast where weak low pressure is developing.

I will have a Video for you bright and early tomorrow morning, posted by 4:45 AM.    Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Triple Digit Heat Streak – DAY 5

We have a streak underway, and we would love to see it end.  Today is likely to be the fifth day in a row of 100 degree heat at the Montgomery Airport.  We haven’t seen a streak of Triple Digit Heat like this since that heatwave back in August of 2007.  (Today’s Record High is 102 from 2000)   At least the humidity has come down a bit, so we are staying below Heat Advisory criteria.  After today, we’ll probably stay below 100, as humidity returns, and so the threat of scattered random storms.  Showers and storms will be quite numerous by Monday, and through much of next week.

TODAY:   Sunshine will be dominate.  Again today we should be dry.  High near 100.  Low tonight 75.  Humidity will be tolerable, by Alabama standards.  Winds will be light.  The record high for today is 102.

HUMIDITY WILL RETURN:  Yesterday at 4PM, Montgomery’s humidity was only 24%.   Today, with dewpoints in the 50s again, it will feel much like Friday.   But moisture is returning.  Sunday will be more humid.  Dewpoints in the 70’s will be returning, as a southerly flow takes hold.  Showers and storms will creep back in the forecast tomorrow and become more numerous by Monday.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Showers & storms will be back in the forecast Sunday, and the storms will be more numerous by Monday through Thursday.   It will be humid a again.  Highs well up in the 90’s with triple digit heat indices.

TROPICS:  The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance along that old stalled front across north Florida.  It has given this Area to Watch a 20% chance of development off the southeast coast over the next 5 days.  Later next week, we’ll be monitoring the western and southwest Gulf.

AUGUST 2007 HEATWAVE:  Do you remember that torrid August of 2007?  We had 15 days of 100 degrees or higher and 12 record highs.  We got to 106 four times!

HURRICANE HISTORY – HURRICANE CAMILLE 50 YEARS AGO:    The summer of 1969 was pretty amazing.  We Moon Landing, Chappaquiddick, Woodstock, and a Hurricane named Camille.  This is the day, in the pre-dawn hours, that Category 5 Hurricane Camille came ashore in south Mississippi with winds estimated at 200 mph.

What a night at the Richelieu Manor Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi on that Sunday night, 50 years ago.  This is the site of the ill-fated Hurricane Party. Here’s the before and after picture. A night of terror.

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I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend!   Stay hydrated!

-Rich

Near 100 Next Two Days – Not Quite as Muggy For Now – FRIDAY Video

Good morning!  Happy Friday.  It continues to be hot.  Very HOT.  We’ll tease the 100 degree mark again today and tomorrow.  Fortunately, the humidity has come down a bit. It’s not as muggy.   And, that trend will for another day or two before the humidity makes a big comeback. On this video, I’ll tell you when showers & storms and extreme humidity will return to our forecast. And, we’ll next into next week.  We’ll be watching the western Gulf of Mexico by then.
MORNING VIDEO LINK HERE:
Near 100 again today and tomorrow, but at least it’s not quite as muggy.
The Dewpoints will reach a low point today and Saturday afternoon.  So it won’t be nearly as muggy as we were a few days ago,   BUT, look the graph.  Do you see the Dewpoints skyrocketing Sunday and the crazy extreme humidity returns?  It’ll be back to business as usual.
Dry and HOT through Saturday.  Humidity and showers and storms increase Sunday through Wednesday.
High humidity continues at the beach.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be roaming around each day.  Best chance will be Sunday.

 

Still Very HOT – But Humidity Will Improve a Little – THURSDAY Video

Good morning!  We’re not going to see a VAST improvement.  We still have some very HOT days ahead. But, the humidity will come down a notch or two, and I think that will help a little.  Down in southeast Alabama, you may not notice any change.  Showers exit the forecast for a couple of days. But, for how long?  What about the weekend?  I’ll show you when the humidity returns in full force.  And, we’ll check the tropics, too.

The front will reach SE Alabama this morning and south of Dothan by this evening.  It will push out the higher humidity levels for a couple of days.  Still Crazy Hot.  Upper 90’s… Showers exit the forecast until about Sunday.

 

The Awful Humidity goes away for a little while.  It will feel somewhat better especially across the northern half of the state, with lower dewpoints for 2-3 days.

The ridiculous humidity levels will start to migrate northward Saturday evening, and will dominate the area on Sunday.

EXTREMELY HOT, next few days.  The risk of showers and storms are back by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Terrible humidity levels at the Beach through the weekend.  Scattered thunderstorms.

Front Brings Showers & Storms – Then, Some ‘Limited Relief’ – WEDNESDAY Video

Good morning!  A southward moving front will be the main player in our state today.  The BEST chance for concentrated showers & storms will be along and south of I-85.  The front will bring ‘limited relief’ after it passes south to near the coast.  It will still be HOT behind the front, but depending on where you live, the humidity and the heat index will be lower.  It will be an improvement for many areas except southeast Alabama where the awful humidity will linger. How long could this “brief relief” last?  I will dissect the forecast details through the weekend and we’ll talk about possible Gulf tropical mischief.

HEAT INDEX continues along and south of I-85 today.  Active weather day as the front moves southward.  Best chance of strong to severe storms along and south of I-85 today.   Otherwise another very HOT day.

The front moves into extreme southeast Alabama.  Behind the front there will be limited relief depending on where you live.  Dewpoints will be lower from central Alabama northward which means the humidity will not be as awful for 2-3 days.

 

By Saturday evening, some of that awful humidity will be creeping back northward.  On Sunday, it’s back to business as usual.

 

I’ll keep the rain chances small Thursday, mainly in SE Alabama.  Rain chances under 20% on Friday and Saturday.  STILL HOT.  Highs well in the 90’s everyday.  Just slightly more tolerable humidity for 2-3 days, until Sunday when terrible humidity is back and all of this is just a memory.