Good morning! We are easing into a much more active pattern over the next 8 days and beyond. Today, an approaching frontal system will bring the risk of scattered showers and storms at times today and tonight, and some widely scattered showers & storms on Sunday. Some towns got wet overnight. There were even a few strong storms in west Alabama. Right now, the rain probabilities are back in the forecast Monday night through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms. The highest probability of strong to Severe storms for most of us would be on Tuesday, and possibly a few on Wednesday, as well. There will be another storm system on the first weekend of May (May 2/3). Highs in the 80’s will continue.
TODAY: Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely, at times. Many dry hours. Not a wash out. High 83.
(Normal hi/lo 81/54)
TONIGHT: A 50 percent chance of spotty showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Calm wind.
FUTURE RADAR: Here’s a sample of hi-res models today and this evening. Our Weather App will keep you on top of the action with radar and future radar and instant push notifications for any severe weather alerts.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Right now, the rain probabilities are in the forecast Monday night through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms. The highest probability of strong to Severe storms for most of strong to severe storms would be on Tuesday and possibly a few on Wednesday, too. Highs will be in the 80’s Lows in the 60’s.
DAY 4 (TUESDAY) Severe Risk: SPC has a Severe Risk just nicking north Alabama on their Day 3 Monday/Monday night outlook. On Day 4 – Tuesday SPC shows the 15% Risk area covering NW Alabama. That equates to a Level 2 threat, with a very likely extension to a Marginal Risk farther southeast when we get withing the 3 day time window.
NSSL Experimental Severe Probability: The National Severe Storm Lab – Severe Weather Probability suggests we need to focus on an expanding Severe risk on Day 4 – Tuesday, and maybe even a lingering risk in south Alabama on Day 5 – Wednesday.This would likely include all modes of severe weather including tornadoes.Stay tuned.
TALLADEGA RACE WEEKEND: Showers and thunderstorms could certainly play a role in your weekend Talladega plans.
Today
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 80. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
EXPECTED RAINFALL:. Weekend expected rainfall potential numbers don’t look promising. .25” or less for most.
But, The 7 day potential rainfall totals look a lot more promising. Parts of north Alabama could see some flooding rainfall totals. Not as much across south Alabama.
The 10 Day model Blend Temperature Trend.
BEACH FORECAST: The highest probability of showers and storms will be today and tonight. Moderate rip current risk.
Thanks for reading this Blog this morning. The next scheduled complete Blog update and Video Forecast Discussion is scheduled for the 4 o’clock hour on Monday morning. Have a great weekend.
-Rich