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SPECIAL THURS. PM UPDATE: Weekend Tropical Storm Prospects Growing

On this special update, it’s becoming clearer that we will see certainly a Depression the the Gulf over the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend, but more likely a Tropical Storm.  Invest 90-L continues to develop over the Yucatan. Model trends continue to suggest that, late in the weekend, conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone development, an now, key models are coming together on a consensus on the potential track.  The central Gulf coast is clearly in the cross hairs.  The most likely time for landfall will be later in the weekend, particularly toward Sunday night or Monday.  However the affects could begin even earlier. Air Force RECON will investigate the system Friday.

By the way, the first name on this year’s list of tropical names is Alberto, a name which has been re-cycled many times before.

Before I show you the models, here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center, which now says there is 90% chance that Invest 90-L will develop into a depression or Tropical Storm.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook

. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

MODEL TRENDS:  Both the GFS and the EURO  tracks have come very close together on the potential path of this tropical system

 

The GFS has the system just south of the Mobile Bay on Sunday night at 7PM.  Then it lifts northwestward into central Mississippi.

 

The EURO is a little slower on arrival time.  It takes the center just south of the Mobile bay at 1PM on Memorial Day Monday.   Then the system lifts northward, hugging the Miss/Alabama border Monday night through Tuesday and into Tennessee on Wednesday.

The Euro now gives close to a 60% chance of this system becoming a tropical storm.

BOTTOM LINE FOR US:  These two model tracks from the GFS and EURO, put us on the more active east side of the system.  The potential exists for some very heavy rainfall, and when the system comes ashore, tornadoes are possible on the right side of the system.  A tornado watch is almost a given, again, depending on when the system makes landfall.  It could spoil a lot of holiday plans.

I’ll have much more for you in the morning on a Special Friday morning video update, online by 4:45AM.

Rich

 

 



Unwanted Holiday Weekend Visitor from the Tropics – Thursday Video

..Get ready for an unwanted visitor over the Holiday weekend, which could have the name Alberto.  Maybe.  Still all eyes on Invest 90-L, which will enter the southern Gulf later today.  On this video, I have everything you need to know,  The models are now coming closer together on a solution.  I have latest on tracks, and possible strength, and the timeline.  It’ll be Holiday weekend spoiler for thousands, I’m afraid.  I’ll show you how much rain could fall.  Spoiler alert:  A lot.  Please take few minutes to watch this important video update.

 

Dense fog advisory till 9AM.  Otherwise, look for another day with better than normal rain chances.  Scattered to numerous showers & storms, especially this afternoon and this evening.

Rain chances will be rather high, to say the least through Tuesday.  Perhaps particularly heavy Sunday through Tuesday.

The beach forecast is simply awful.  All the beaches.  Terrible news for the Memorial Day weekend.

National Hurricane has raised the probability that Invest 90-L will become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Alberto over the Memorial Day Holiday weekend in the central or eastern Gulf.

 

The Global models vary.  The GFS is still farther est east of the two major global models.  The Euro is still the farther west on it’s tracks.  BUT, the models are now coming closer together.

Simply put, rainfall amounts will be excessive through Tuesday, especially closer to the coast.  Here’s two model examples on possible amounts.  The Euro is much more aggressive.

 

 

 

 

Tropical Threat For Holiday Weekend – Wednesday Video

Good Morning! … All eyes on Invest 90-L, the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean, which will lift northward into the Gulf.  I have a lot of good information this morning, as we try to figure out the fate of this tropical system, and how it could affect vacation plans for countless thousands over the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend.  I’ll also show you potential rainfall totals which will raise some eyebrows for sure.  Hope you have a couple of minutes to watch this Wednesday morning weather video.

 

Flash flooding overnight in Lee county.  Several flooded homes and roads.  Today, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be around again with locally heavy downpours, again.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next several days, through the holiday weekend for here and the beaches.

National Hurricane Center gives Invest 90-L a 50% chance of development into a Depression or Tropical Storm Alberto over the next 5 days in the eastern or central Gulf.

The Euro model is farther west, with most tracks through Louisiana into Mississippi, putting Alabama on the very wet side of this system.

The GFS likes the idea of farther east track through the eastern Gulf or Florida.

Depending on which model you believe, rainfall amounts could be excessive over a wide multi-state area, particularly heavy down on all the beaches…not just some beaches.

 

 

INVEST 90-L heads for the Gulf.

TROPICAL UPDATE (4;45PM 5/22/18) Spaghetti anyone? Model lines are now populating the map as Invest 90-L begins it’s trek toward the Gulf. Do you see a consensus yet? Stand by central Gulf coast. NHC probability of development 40%. Euro model higher at 50-60%. Should you be worried? My worry level is low. Much RAIN. Tropical Rain. Holiday Weekend downpours. Stay tuned. Much more in the morning on a very interesting Wednesday morning weather video.

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Previous update…

Good Morning! Our better than normal rain chances continue.  On this video,  I’ll update the chances for more drenching downpours over the next few days.  A Tropical Disturbance, being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, could have a significant impact on our future weather, depending on the track it takes.  The Memorial Day Weekend could potentially be a washout in spots.  I’ll show the possibilities with the latest computer models, and the amazing rainfall totals which are possible.  A lot of good information this morning on your Tuesday morning personal weather briefing.

 

The atmosphere is primed again for numerous, widespread, showers and storms again today with locally heavy downpours.  That “weakness” in the upper atmosphere will persist next couple of days.

 

 

As far as where this tropical system could go….the GFS still like Florida and into Georgia.  It shows the Low as rather weak.

The Euro is a little stronger with the Low and faster, taking it to the mouth of the Mississippi river Saturday morning.  (By the way the Canadian is in between the two, and takes the system to the central Florida panhandle over the weekend,

The EURO model offers probabilities for tropical development.  It has a rather respectable 50-60% probability on Depression forming and about a 20-30% chance that this system will become Tropical Storm Alberto.

Depending on which model you trust, rainfall amounts could be rather excessive from now through Memorial Day Weekend.

 

Disturbed Atmosphere: Better Rain Chance – Monday Video

Good Morning!    Better than normal rain chances are locked in next few days and many folks are happy to hear that.  On this video, I’ll dissect the details of the week ahead.  A lot of it has to do the tropics as we our attention turns to the Caribbean and then the Gulf.  Will low pressure develop?  What track will it take?  Will it become a Depression or a named storm?   The models don’t agree on the details.  We’ll take a close look.  It could have a big impact on the Memorial Day Holiday weekend forecast.

 

The atmosphere is primed for a better than normal chance of showers & storms.  Still random but in ample supply.

Better than normal rain chances will continue.  Storms may thin out a bit Thursday & Friday.  But showers/storms become rather numerous over the Memorial Day Weekend.

The Global Models disagree on the fate of potential Low pressure in the Gulf over the Holiday weekend.  The GFS is weakest and fartherest east.  The Euro shows tropical Low pressure south of Louisiana on Saturday.  Many questions remain.

The Euro model gives a 50-60% of a Tropical Depression forming off the central Gulf Coast by the weekend, and up to a 20% chance of a named Tropical Storm.

Conservative rainfall estimates next 7 days range from 1-2″ in the west to 4″ in the Wiregrass.

The Euro model shows the potential for much heavier rainfall amounts in South Alabama, next 7 days.