Good morning! It’s a dry, warm, quiet forecast today. But, weather changes are on the way. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin in the overnight hours tonight as the next front approaches. The front will stall in central Alabama and the risk of more showers and storms will linger in the forecast Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday. Early next week we’ll be closely watching a potent storm system approaching from the Plains states. Parts of the Gulf South will be dealing with a potential Severe Threat Monday night into Tuesday, including a tornado risk. Later next week there will be another potential severe threat. In fact, this very active pattern will roll on for several days well into early May with a parade of storm systems. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Warm. Light wind. High 87.
(Normal hi/lo 80/54) (Yesterday’s high was 85)
TONIGHT: Dry through the evening hours. Scattered showers and storms move in in the overnight hours. Low 63.
An approaching front will be our next weather maker. The front will stall in central Alabama and the risk of more showers and storms will linger in the forecast Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday.
SEVERE RISK through today and overnight tonight- through 7AM Saturday includes a Level 1 Marginal Risk west of a Birmingham/Selma line.
FUTURE RADAR: Showers and storms will begin in the overnight hours late tonight. Periods of showers and storms Saturday.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Risk of showers and thunderstorms through the Weekend. Parts of the Gulf South will be dealing with a potential Severe Threat Monday night into Tuesday, including a tornado risk. Later next week there will be another potential severe threat. Highs in the 80’s will continue. 60’s at night.
MONDAY Late Night/TUESDAY STORM SYSTEM: Our next Storm System early next week looks like a bigger deal Monday night into Tuesday. The details are still a little murky at this point as far as timing and strength.
SEVERE RISK: SPC’s Day 5 Outlook for Monday/Monday night (through 7am Tuesday) shows a Severe threat nicking extreme NW Alabama, but this outlook could certainly be expanded as we get closer to the event.
The Severe Outlook may indeed be expanded to a much larger area, including all modes of Severe Weather. The official outlook will be refined as we get closer to the event.
TALLADEGA RACE WEEKEND: The weekend storm system could certainly play a role in your weekend Talladega plans.
TONIGHT
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 80. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: The new Drought Monitor Map is frankly shocking. 87% of our state is in a Severe Drought or greater. Almost half the state (46%) is classified as Extreme Drought status. The Alabama Forestry Commission (AFC) has suspended all burn permits statewide. Only certified, trained burn managers are permitted to burn, and only under strict supervision. A weekend storm system will deliver some raindrops to the state, but probably not enough to even put a dent in this worsening drought situation.
EXPECTED RAINFALL:. Here’s the 7 day potential rainfall totals. Parts of north Alabama could see some flooding rainfall totals. Not as much across south Alabama.
The 10 Day model Blend Temperature Trend.
BEACH FORECAST: The highest probability of showers and storms will be on Saturday/Saturday night. Moderate rip current risk.
Thanks for reading this Blog this morning. This morning we are LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk 93.1. I’ll have another update for you in the 4 o’clock hour tomorrow morning. You can also watch us during our morning show on You Tube and Facebook. Search Newstalk 93.1. Have a nice day.
–Rich