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All Eyes on The Gulf – Watching Cristobal’s Future Track

4:00PM UPDATE  

Cristobal, now over land, as a 50 mph Tropical Storm could weaken to a depression by tomorrow. He’s waiting for a bus ride, which won’t arrive until Friday. Expected to become a tropical storm again, Crisobal is destined for the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday evening/night

Good Morning!  Random pop-up storms will be in more generous supply over the next days, through the end of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal’s future track could play an important role in the forecast details as we get into the weekend.  Cristobal seems to be likely headed for an encounter with the northern Gulf Coast by this weekend. Alabama will be on the wet, active side of the track. What about the timeline?  How much rain could fall?  Will there be a tornado threat?  I’ll show you the latest information from the National Hurricane Center as we track Cristobal from the Bay of Campeche and through the Gulf.

 

A weakness in the upper ridge of high pressure will lead to thunderstorms in more generous supply.  They will be random, hit or miss storms, most numerous in the afternoon & evening.

Random pop-up storms will be in gorgeous supply in the afternoon and evening hours through Saturday. The Sunday through Tuesday rain chances are subject to review and will probably go much higher due to Cristobal’s track.

Obviously, this will NOT be a sunny, nice weekend at the beach.  Tropical downpours will be widespread.

Latest 4AM Forecast Cone from NHC shows a stronger consensus that Cristobal will likely make landfall along he northern Gulf coast late Sunday night…probably as a strong Tropical Storms with 65 mph winds

The EURO Ensemble members spaghetti models are now coming together in a closer array, spread out from about Galveston to New Orleans.

Alabama will be on the “wet” side of Cristobal’s Track.  Rainfall amounts could be extensive in spots, especially closer to the coast.

Al

Pop-Up Storms Return – Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms in the Gulf

***11:30AM NHC UPDATE:

Cristobal is born in the Gulf. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that T.D. Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph with higher gusts. #alwx

 

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:

Good Morning!  Our forecast is changing.  Random pop-up storms are making a comeback.  They will become more numerous later in the week.  And, there is much uncertainty across the Gulf South as the weekend forecast goes.  Could we be dealing with a tropical storm threat along the north central Gulf Coast?  Or, will this be more of a problem for Texas?  On this video, I’ll update you on possible future tracks for that system, which is getting stronger in the Bay of Campeche.

Widely scattered pop up storms will be around in the afternoon & evening hours.  A very typical June forecast.t.

Pop  up storms will be roaming around each day through Friday.  Meanwhile, the weekend forecast is very much dependent on tropical developments in the Gulf.

Uncertain future track for the Tropical System in the Gulf this weekend and into early next week.  Notice the American GFS Ensemble tracks like a more easterly solution, with tracks ranging from the Mobile Bay to Lake Charles.   On the other hand the Euro model is much farther left.  It’s tracks are spread out from about New Orleans to Corpus Cristi.  It’s favoring landfall along the upper Texas Coast perhaps by Sunday afternoon.  The jury is out.

Obviously, the details of the weekend beach  forecast are up in the air to say the least.  Everything deepens on the future track of the tropical system.   Be flexible with your plans.

Hotter Days – Pop Up Storms Will Return – Watching the Gulf This Week – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  Welcome to June…and welcome to Hurricane Season.  We’ll be closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico in the week ahead.  I have the latest information on the future Invest 93-L. Plus…it’s getting hotter.  There could be some isolated pop up storms, perhaps, today.  But, those random pop-up storms will become a little more numerous later in the week, as the humidity builds. Welcome to a real summer-like week!

Hot day ahead.  Cant’t rule out an isolated random heat of the day shower or thundershower somewhere, but the chance is small.

 

Random pop up storms will be back in our forecast this week, especially late week and this coming weekend.

NHC  monitoring the SW Gulf.  70% chance that Invest 93-L will develop into a Depression or a name storm.

Here’s the EURO spaghetti model ensemble tracks on Invest 93-L.   The Euro, the GFS and the Canadian model suggest this will probably be a Texas problem.

SUNDAY UPDATE:   Clear Sailing for a Few Days – Getting Hotter This Week

Good morning!  The news is better today, on this last day of the month of May. It’s a comfortable morning.  The humidly level is ‘slightly’ better.  So, today will be a warm day, BUT, the humidity will not be out of control.

Clear sailing for the next few days.  A minor disturbance brushes by Tuesday, But, I have the rain chance under 20%.

We will be getting hotter over the next few days, but the rain chances will remain low until late week.   Random pop-up heat of the day storms return Thursday through Saturday.

The Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched.

TODAY:  Sunshine will dominate.  The afternoon dewpoint will be around 63.  That’s not perfect, but it’s better than yesterday.  Today’s high of 89 will be somewhat tolerable.  Nice tonight.  Mostly clear low 66.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Mostly dry through Wednesday.  Getting hotter. .   Random pop-up heat of the day storms return Thursday through Saturday.

BEACH OUTLOOK:   Small rain chance Tuesday.  Otherwise a good Beach Forecast.  Low rip current risk today and Monday.

WATCHING THE TROPICS:  As I have been telling for you for about the last 10 days, the Gulf 0f Mexico needs to be watched especially later this week and into the weekend.  Interesting set-up.  A Pacific Tropical Depression will likely migrate into the Bay of Campeche.  Could it eventually develop into a depression or tropical storm in the western Gulf late this week.  Maybe.  Certainly needs to be watched.

Out in the Atlantic….Invest 92-L.  Who cares?  Fish.

I’ll have a complete video  update for you tomorrow morning.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday …

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  String of Nicer Days Ahead – Lower Humidity Soon

         Good Morning!  This can be a rather short update, and that means, the news is good for the next few days, as May ends and June begins.

The upper Low that has plagued our forecast for many days is lifting out.  A surface cool front is pushing through the area.  Although today will still feel rather humid, tonight will be less humid and pleasantly cooler.

The rain chance will be tiny today, and then,  we should be dry for a series of several days Sunday through Thursday.  June starts on a nice note..

TODAY:  A good bit of sunshine today. Could there be a stray shower somewhere this afternoon.  It’s not out of the question.  I have a 20% chance in…  With dewpoints in the upper 60’s, it will still feel humid.  Today’s high near 90°.  Tonight will be less humid and kind of nice.  Low 63.

Here’s a Future Radar snapshot at 3PM.  Couple of blips on the radar, perhaps….

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Less humid tonight and Sunday.  Expect a period of dry and mostly sunny days, as May ends and June begins.  HOT, but not humid.

BEACH FORECAST:  Moderate rip current risk today and tomorrow.  Rain chance:  small today.  Scattered thunderstorms.  A period of dry weather Sunday through Wednesday.  A good week at the beach.  Water temperature now at a season high 80°.

THE TROPICS:  In the central Atlantic, there is yet another pre-season tropical system being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.  Invest 92-L has a 60% chance of developing into a depression or tropical storm.  Do we care, on any level?  NO.  Next name on the list…a boy name….Cristobal.  The hurricane season officially starts Monday.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Have a great weekend.   Stay safe and well.

-Rich