Good morning! Yesterday the MGM Airport recorded .01” – the first rainfall in 32 days since October 4th, Today the radar will be more lively. Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, Rainfall will be most concentrated east of I-65 and south of I-85, but all of us stand the best chance of rain in weeks. Yesterday’s high was 85. Today we’ll be closer to 80. There will be at least a risk for widely scattered showers, maybe some thunderstorms in the forecast Thursday through Veterans Day Monday. Temperatures will remain above normal. Meanwhile, the future track of Rafael continues to bend to the left. Rafael is a Hurricane this morning as it aims for the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s my brief forecast discussion. WRONG DATE ON THE VIDEO! Ha! It’s Wednesday, November 6, obviously! NO SLEEP WILL DO THAT. SORRY!
TODAY: Mostly cloudy Still Warm. High near 81. Normal 74/47. Scattered showers and storms today and tonight. East wind 6 to 12 mph. Low tonight 71.
Here’s a couple of Future Radar examples. Rain back on the radar! Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Fingers crossed. Good luck. We need the rain.
Here’s the map set-up. Notice we’ll be between two precipitation maximums. One to the east associated with a tropical wave to the east and stalled frontal system stalled near the Mississippi river.
NEXT FEW DAYS: The risk of showers will continue each day through Monday, but the daily rain chance will be relatively small each day. Highs will be mostly in the upper 70’s to near 80 each day through Monday, with 60’s at night. Right now, we are not expecting Rafael to impact are forecast.
This map of potential rainfall next 6 days. Notice we’ll be between two precipitation maximums. One to the east associated with a tropical wave to the east and stalled frontal system stalled near the Mississippi river.
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TROPICAL UPDATE: Hurricane Rafael is getting stronger, now with 90 mph winds, now 120 miles south of the western tip of Cuba. It’ll enter the Gulf today. Rafael is expected to eventually begin to weaken a bit as it encounters strong wind shear in the central Gulf. Right now we are not expecting Rafael to impact our forecast.
The Hurricane Center is betting Rafael will make a left turn when it reaches the central Gulf. As you can see here, some of the tropical models do not agree. Some still bring Rafael to the northern Gulf coast. But many key models, especially the EURO, show Rafael taking an extreme lefty turn. Even the GFS is starting to agree. The NHC Cone is a compromise between the model consensus tracks. .
Elsewhere, there is an Area to Watch being monitored by NHC, located north of the Greater Antilles.
Thanks for reading the blog. There will be another complete Blog update and video forecast discussion tomorrow morning. This morning, everything is normal including LIVE on the Radio from 6 to 9AM on NewsTalk 93.1 – WACV. Please vote today!
–Rich