Good Morning! Today will be the last nice day before big changes arrive. Today’s high will reach the mid 60’s. Periods of rain will move in late tonight and continues through much of Saturday. Sunday will be much colder. By early and mid-week we’re expecting the coldest Arctic Air of the season, so far. Wind chill will be dangerously low especially Monday and Tuesday mornings. Low pressure will develop in the southwest Gulf, and move along the southern edge of the Arctic Air. This morning the major global models are backing off on the threat of a high impact winter storm, as the track of the Gulf Low continues to ease southward. Now the models are suggesting perhaps a light dusting of snow across south Alabama on Tuesday. We’re still 4 days out. We’ll see if this model trend continues as we get closer to the event. Here’s my brief forecast discussion,
TODAY: One more nice day. Increasing clouds. Warm for January. High 64. Cloudy tonight. Dry through the evening hours. Periods of rain after Midnight. Rainfall could be heavy at times. Low 49.
SATURDAY: Periods of rain especially morning and through the afternoon. Can’t rule out some thunder. High upper 60’s. Showers taper off by evening. Turning colder and becoming windy overnight. Low 40.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Periods of rain will move in late Friday night and through much of Saturday. Sunday will be much colder. By early and mid-week it will become significantly colder. This morning the major global models are backing off on the threat of a high impact winter storm, as the track of the Gulf Low continues to ease southward. Now the models are suggesting perhaps a light dusting of snow across south Alabama on Tuesday.
WINTER ASSUALT Next Week:
No doubt about it. The major headline continues to be of the extent of the Arctic Cold Blast that will dominate nearly all of next week.
Lows will be in the upper teens and low 20’s. But, the wind chill numbers will be dangerously low especially Monday and Tuesday. Here’s a snapshot of Monday morning.
Early next week, low pressure will develop in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and track eastward, along the southern end of some bitter cold arctic air. The exact track the low takes is crucial in forecasting any snow potential here in Alabama. This morning the GFS and EURO models are both trending southward on the track of the Gulf low. So, that has eased the potential for any significant snowfall in central and south Alabama. We’re still 4 days out, and this could change. But, I would say the threat of a High Impact winter storm has eased significantly for now.
NWS SAYS: Latest probabilities for snowfall accumulations
at or above 0.25″ (Winter Weather Advisory criteria) is 20-40%, with
highest probabilities along and south of I-85. (Yes, you read that
correctly.) While an argument can be made that all of Central
Alabama should be on watch for winter weather on Tuesday, highest
confidence exists south where best access to moisture exists on the
north side of the progged Gulf low.
Look at the Low’s position way down in the SW Gulf Tuesday morning. The expected, more southerly track, keeps the threat of significant precipitation out in the Gulf the most part.
Here’s the GFS and Euro Model Snapshots on Tuesday PM. The GFS has trended far south on the precipitation shield. The EURO paints a patch of light snow as far north as I-85.
Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend. This will certainly be the coldest air of the winter so far. And, it’s been a COLD winter.
Montgomery’s last accumulating snow, 7 years go today. January 17, 2018.
Thanks for reading this special blog update. This morning everything is normal. We’ll be LIVE on NewsTalk 93.1. There will be another Blog Update and Forecast Video discussion in the 4’o’clck hour tomorrow morning. Have a good day,
–Rich