TROPICAL UPDATE:
Formerly just an Area to Watch, the system off the SE coast now has a number. Invest 92-L. This allows for additional tropical model runs and increased satellite surveillance. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
Good morning! Happy Birthday America! Timing is everything. And, the holiday weekend forecast continues to look pretty amazing, all things considered. Rain chances will be minimal at best. Sunshine will be in abundance. Highs will be in the middle 90’s today and Saturday. Widely scattered storms will return Sunday. The heat index will be close to 100 each day, but should stay below Heat Index criteria. The number of Scattered PM storms will start to increase Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, NHC is still monitoring that Area to Watch in the now off the coast into the Atlantic. Tropical Development is possible over the weekend or early next week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Hi 95. Rain chance 10% at best. Low tonight 73. Light wind.
A front is stalled near the Gulf coast and that’s where the best chance of random scattered storms will be.
NEXT FEW DAYS: It’s generally a dry forecast through at least Saturday. Expect mid 90’s on Saturday. Isolated storms return Sunday and scattered storms Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday.
The heat index will be close to 100 each day, but should stay below Heat Index criteria.
10 Day Model Blend Temperature trend shows some hot days ahead.
BEACH FORECAST: Random scattered PM storms, but not a wash out. . Highs in the lower 90’s. Gulf water 87. Mostly moderate rip current risk.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK: NHC says there’s a 50% chance of Tropical Development over the next few days over the Atlantic. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by late weekend or early week. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward.
The EURO model continues to be very bullish on Tropical Development off the SE coast. The next available name on the list is Chantal.
Meanwhile, Florida will be drenched over the holiday weekend. The Gulf south will see a few showers but not nearly as wet as Florida.
Thanks for reading the blog update. There will be another Blog Update in the 4 o’clock hours tomorrow morning. You can always find my forecast updates hourly on the 8 station Bluewater family of stations every day of the year.
–Rich