1:35 PM
As we continue to track the large cluster of storms in northwest Alabama (MCS) the current severe thunderstorm watch has been extended to include Chilton, Chambers, Bibb and Tallapoosa until 6PM. Stand by for warnings. Damaging straight line winds.
12:10 PM:
After Cluster of Storms #1 tears through the state this afternoon and this evening. Get ready for a potential rude awakening with a Round 2 storm strong/severe cluster overnight tonight. The big question is what level of risk this second round could carry given the storms this afternoon will zap a lot of energy from the atmosphere. Therefore, they have a lesser Marginal risk defined for most of the area tonight with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. As of right now, we’re expecting this secondary round of activity to impede any severe potential for Sunday afternoon. #alwx
11:45 AM:
NEW Severe Thunderstorm Watch covers much of north and central Alabama till 6PM, as we monitor a storm cluster (MCS) moving east-southeast out of MS. There could be yet another large MCS cluster later tonight, possibly reaching the River Region in the overnight hours. ‘Tis the MCS season. #alwx
5:00 AM:
Good morning! The overall weather news for us for the next several days is kind of depressing. Along with the heat and humidity, the stage is set for some rather potent thunderstorms. In fact we are win a Severe Weather Risk from the Storm Prediction Center daily. It’s a Level 2 threat today and again on Monday. The greatest risk is damaging straight-line wind gusts and even a few microbursts are possible. We will be tracking multiple storm clusters (MCS) which will traverse the state. The northern third of the state is in a Level 3 Enhanced risk. Most of the area has a Level 1 Marginal risk again on Sunday. The higher than normal thunderstorm probabilities will be quite high each day through about Thursday. And yet, the storms will still be random, for the most part. Our weather app will be your best friend with instant push notifications for severe weather watches and warnings. Radar and future radar will keep you up to date on where the storms are and where they are headed. It’s free in the app store. Search Rich Thomas Weather. Stay weather aware. If you are close enough to hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck and killed.
TODAY: Partial sunshine. High 90-92. Heat indices from 95-102°. Light SE wind. Scattered mostly PM Showers and storms. Some could be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts. Very humid Low tonight near 70. Could be another cluster of strong/severe storms in the overnight/pre-dawn hours. (Normal hi/lo 90/67)
Level 2 SEVERE RISK: The greatest risk is damaging straight-line wind gusts and even a few microbursts are possible. We will be tracking multiple storm clusters (MCS) which will traverse the state. The northern third of the state is in a Level 3 Enhanced risk.
FUTURE RADAR There will be individual strong random pop up storms, but we will still be tracking potent storm clusters this afternoon, this evening and perhaps even overnight.
The timing chart below may help your planning.
TECHNICAL NWS DISCUSSION: In addition to the MCS threat, we could see isolated thunderstorms develop this afternoon ahead of the line as we exceed our convective temps. SPC has maintained an Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for the northern half of the state and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for the southern half of Central AL. We will also need to monitor for our flash flooding threat as PWATs near 2″. If any areas see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, we could see a localized flood threat develop. This wave of convection is expected to be east of us by 00Z or shortly after.
SPC has most of us in a Level 1 Marginal Risk Sunday. And, another Level 2 Severe Risk for the whole state Monday. Severe Risk each day.
Heat indices from 95-102° this afternoon will promote a moderate risk of heat-related impacts across portions of Central Alabama. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts possible in some health systems and in heat-sensitive industries.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Not much day to day change. Random Showers and storms will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the storms could be strong to severe. Damaging straight-line wind gusts is the main threat. High daily rain probabilities continue.
Locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible in spots over the next few days. Tropical downpours.
TROPICAL UPDATE: NHC says the Atlantic Basin is quiet for the next 7 days.
BEACH OUTLOOK: Be flexible with your plans. Numerous showers and storms will be roaming around each day, most numerous in the afternoon and evening. Gulf water temperature 81.
Thanks for reading the blog. Ther next complete video forecast discussion and Blog update is scheduled for Monday morning in the 4 O’clock hour. Have a great weekend!
–Rich