Good Morning! Big changes are on the way as a cold front approaches.  The risk of showers and storms will be increasing across the state starting this afternoon and through tonight.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has all of the state in a Severe Risk, from a Level 1 risk across the southeastern counties to a Level 3 Enhanced Risk across northwest Alabama.  Damaging wind gusts are the main threat.  The most concentrated and highest probability of showers and storms will be on Saturday. Even tomorrow, SPC has a Level 1 Severe Risk for all of the area.  Be flexible with your outdoor plans.  Cooler air is on tap.  Highs will be in the 70’s Saturday through Monday.  Chilly nights are on the way. The coolest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday with lows in the low 50’s or even near 50 at dawn. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.

TODAY:  Patchy dense fog in spots this morning. Partial sunshine. Very warm again. High 88. Scattered showers and storms by this afternoon.  Showers and storms will become more numerous tonight, especially late. Some potentially strong/severe  Low tonight mid 60’s.

The Storm Prediction Center has all of the state in a Severe Risk, from a Level 1 risk across the southeastern counties to a Level 3 Enhanced Risk across northwest Alabama.  Damaging wind gusts are the main threat. 

Future Radar:  Scattered showers and storms will populate the radar this afternoon and become more numerous tonight, including the overnight hours.

The Severe Weather timing map confirms the fact that most of us will see the strongest threat late tonight. 

NEXT FEW DAYS: The slow moving cold front approaching will bring  some much needed rain to our state.  Showers and storms will be quite numerous Saturday. A few stronger storms are possible. Marginal Severe Risk. Much cooler air is also on the way.  Highs will be in the 70’s Saturday through Monday.  Chilly nights are on the way. The coolest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday with lows in the low 50’s or even near 50 at dawn.Sunshine will dominate Sunday through Tuesday.

The focus for the showers and storms will be that approaching cold front.  Behind the front, expect a cool-down.  Chilly nights will require jackets and sweatshirts. 

Level 1 Marginal Severe Risk on Saturday.  Damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

Here’s the expected rainfall through the next 7 days.  The totals increase, the farther northwest you go in the state.  We need the rain.    

Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend.  Look at some of those very chilly mornings.  Expect slow warming next week.  (Normal 83/57)

BEACH FORECAST:  Today’s a pretty good day.
Risk of scattered showers and storms could affect your Beach plans especially Saturday.  High rip current risk especially from Destin eastward.  Gulf water temperature now at 79.

Thanks for reading the blog. Today everything is normal including LIVE on the Radio of NewsTalk 93.1 WACV.  There will be another video forecast discussion and Blog Update in the 4 o’clock hours tomorrow morning.  You can always find my forecast updates hourly on the 8 station Bluewater family of stations every day of the year.

–Rich