Good Morning! Today will be a little milder. High temperature near 60, making today the mildest day in quite a while. We should be near 60 again Thursday and Friday, before the bottom drops out this weekend. A risk of spotty showers begins overnight tonight and Thursday, with an increasing chance Friday. Rain is likely Saturday and Saturday night. There is growing concern that a significant winter storm will affect Alabama and much of the south this weekend, involving multiple severe impacts. Worst of which would be a major ice storm across the northern half of our state, and through much of the Southern US. There are still many questions on how this might unfold and how severe the impacts will be. How far south would the Winter Weather impacts extend? It’s not out of the question that some of us will deal with a Freezing rain situation at some point over the weekend. There will be plenty of bitterly cold Arctic air available. Meanwhile, and ample supply of moist Gulf moisture will override the shallow cold air, creating a dangerous scenario for what could be a crippling ice storm for parts of our state, especially from I-20 northward. Stay tuned, as we continue to dissect the future details of this potential Southern Winter Storm. We’ll know much more each day. In today’s Blog update we’ll dive into much deeper detail. Here’s my video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Milder with a high near 60. South wind around 5-10 mph.
TONIGHT:
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Spotty, widely scattered showers after Midnight.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Scattered showers Thursday, with an increasing chance Friday. While rain is likely Saturday. But, then the big question. Will we have to deal with Winter Weather Impacts this weekend? Read more below.
WEEKEND WINTER STORMS THREAT?: There is growing concern over a multi-state weekend winter storm, with potential multiple high impacts. It’s a very complicated. There are still many questions on how it will unfold. How far south would the Winter Weather impacts extend? There will be plenty of cold air available, overriding an ample supply of Gulf moisture. This graphic below from National Weather Service and it will continue to be refined and updated all week. It shows the probability of Winter impacts –ranging from as low as 20% in the US 80/I-85 corridor to 90% in Northwest Alabama, where extensive power outage are possible due to freezing rain – ice accumulation.
Here’s the Saturday set-up. Low pressure will develop along the Texas Gulf coast and slide eastward across a Gulf coast frontal system. Meanwhile, plenty of Bitter Cold Arctic air will be in place.
This Map clearly shows that north Alabama could be in trouble with probabilities of significant Winter Impacts running as high as 70-90%. But, notice, even along the US 80/I-85 corridor there’s as much of at least a 20-30% chance of impacts. And this threat continues through Sunday night.
Here’s a wider Impact Severity Map showing the multi-state threat of with weekend’s Winter Storm – Friday through Sunday. Potentially historic.
As you look at these potential Ice Accumulation numbers from some of the models – consider this. .10” of ice Accumulation causes major travel issues and spotty power outages. .25”+ is a major ice storm with widespread power failures. In this case, some models are suggesting .75” or greater in parts of NW Alabama and neighboring states. This would qualify as a CRIPPLING, catastrophic Ice Storm, with severe impacts for several days. Unthinkable. NOTICE: Interesting that the EURO has shifted northward on the latest run. Could this be a trend?
WINTER STORM WATCH already issued north of I-20. Starts Friday night.
A wide area of South Alabama may not have any impacts at all. It will probably be all liquid for a lot of folks across the southern half of our state. Here’s the projected liquid precipitation forecast through Sunday.
Here’s the model blend 10 day temperature trend. Get ready for an another extended Arctic Pattern starting this weekend starting this weekend through next week. Coldest of the season so far.
Here’s the EURO 16 day Ensemble temperature outlook. (Normal 60/36).
EXTREME BLIZZARD ANNIVERSARY – ONE YEAR AGO TODAY: This is the day. The All-time historic snowstorm – perhaps the biggest in history. The so called “I-10 Blizzard “ from Houston through New Orleans to Northwest Florida panhandle. Bigger than 1895. 6 to 12 inches of snow. All-time record 8” in Mobile. 10 inches on the beach at Orange Beach. New Orleans airport 8” Up to a foot in the French Quarter.
DAYS TILL SPRING: 58 days!
Thanks for reading this Blog this morning. This morning we are LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk 93.1. I’ll have another update for you in the 4 o’clock hour tomorrow morning.
–Rich