Severe Weather Threat Thursday – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  We have a very warm Halloween forecast, as we aim for the low to mid 80’s.  But get ready for a significant change.  All eyes on a potent storm system and cold front moving into the western Gulf region.  It will bring a severe weather threat to Alabama tomorrow as we start the month of November.  On this video, I have the latest on timing and the potential impacts we can expect.  That front will also usher in sharply cooler temperatures.  I have the latest on the weekend forecast and a look ahead into next week, too.

Ominous set-up today, with a significant severe weather/tornado risk across the western Gulf states,  Today, we are headed for the 80’s on a very warm Halloween.

Tomorrow, virtually all of Alabama is in a Severe Risk.  For north Alabama it’s a Marginal Risk, with mainly  a damaging wind threat.  Across south Alabama in the yellow, stage 2, slight risk area, a few spin up tornadoes are possible, too.

NWS has a faster time line on the arrival time of the main squall line (QLCS).  They bring in the line across central Alabama by late morning into the early afternoon, and into southeast Alabama by mid to late afternoon, before exiting the state.

 

After the showers and storms Thursday, Friday will be breezy and much cooler.  The sharply cooler air will persist through the weekend. with low to mid 40’s by dawn on Saturday and Sunday morning.

A little Halloween weather history for you.  The most interesting day was 25 years ago today when it snowed!   Montgomery recorded a Trace of snow at the aiport.  That’s the earliest snow in history.  Records began in 1872.

 

Severe Weather Threat Thursday – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  We have a couple of very warm days ahead as October comes to an end.  But, all eyes on an important approaching storm system. November is the start of our Second Severe season, and ironically, on Thursday, as November begins we may indeed have a severe weather threat to deal with a powerful front sweeps across the state.  On this video, we’ll look at the updated details on timing and the threat level from the Storm Prediction Center. Get ready for sharply cooler air behind the front.  I’ll preview the weekend forecast for you on your Tuesday morning personal weather briefing.

Very warm late October day today with a high near 80.  Watching our next storm system coming together in the Plains.

November starts Thursday.  Powerful frontal system in Mississippi at 7AM will march across the state during the day Thursday with showers and strong thunderstorms.  The NAM model shows the squall line moving into central Alabama by mid-day with the threat of damaging winds at tornadoes are also possible.

Updated Severe Risk from the Storm Prediction Center has all of the state in a Severe Risk.  The southern 2/3 of the state are in a stage 2 “slight” risk, including all modes of severe weather…damaging winds, large hail and the risk for tornadoes.

After the Thursday storm system, much cooler air will follow for Friday and the first weekend of November.

This EURO thumbnail tells the story of the next 10 days…  Warm through Wednesday.  Thursday storm system.  Then sharply cooler for the 1st November weekend.  Warmer next week, before the next cold front, then sharply cooler again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Warm End to October – Important Front Later This Week –MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  We’re down to the last three days of October and the month will end storm-free and above normal on the temperatures.  But, we have big weather changes to talk about in the week ahead, as an important frontal system approaches.  On this video, we’ll look at the latest timing and possible impacts on Alabama weather.  Could this front bring our first dose of severe weather of the season?  We’ll also look ahead to the sharply cooler weather which will follow for the first weekend on November, and beyond.

 

Nice day today!   After 81 yesterday, we’ll be in the middle 70’s today.  Little cooler tonight.

 

Important late week front will bring showers and storms to the state Thursday.  Could some of the storms be severe?  Will there be a tornado threat?  The Storm Prediction Center is hinting it may have to add a severe threat to parts of our state Thursday in their future outlooks.

 

The last three days of October will be rather warm.  Important front Thursday with showers and storms and a potential low end severe weather threat, before it turns sharply cooler behind the front for the first weekend in November.

The two warmest days will be Tuesday. Then, the Euro shows the front with the showers & storms Thursday, before it turns sharply cooler for the November’s first weekend.  Then warmer the next week.  Looks like another significant front around November 7th, before another sharp temperature set-back.

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Weather Changes This Week – Storm System Late Week

Good Morning!  It’s a chilly Sunday morning, but the morning chill will fade out quickly and we’ll see a remarkable warm-up by the afternoon.  Temperatures for the next few days will be well above normal through Halloween.  But, a potent late week  front will bring showers and storms, followed by much cooler air by the Friday and the weekend.

TODAY:  Temperatures in the 40’s at Dawn, will warm quickly.  Mostly sunny today.  We’ll be flirting with the 80 degree mark in central Alabama this afternoon. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.  Not as cool tonight.  Low tonight mid 50’s.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The first 3 days of the week will be a bit on the warm side, on the last 3 days of October.  In fact, I think we will be near 80 again by Tuesday and maybe low 80’s, in spots, on Halloween.  Showers and storms will become rather numerous especially after Midnight Wednesday night and through Thursday as a strong cold front approaches.  Then, much cooler air will funnel in behind the front just in time for the weekend.

IMPORTANT LATE WEEK FRONT:  Models are now coming together on the the timing of the front, which will sweep through the state on Thursday.  Some details of how strong the system will be are still uncertain, as far as storm potential.  We’ll know more with future model runs.  It’s just too early to say if we will see a severe weather or tornado risk with this system.  Details will come together as we get closer.  This is the time when we start our Fall tornado season.  We’ll be watching.  Check out my video in the morning.

CLIMATE DATA:  Yesterday morning’s  low was 48.  Afternoon high 68.  Normal low 50, normal high 75.  Sunrise this morning at 7:00.  Sunset 5:58PM.

Have a great Sunday! I will have you a complete video update Monday morning online by 4:45AM.

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Cool Now – Big Warming Soon – Active Weather Week Ahead

Good morning!   It’s a rather chilly Saturday morning.  While the first half of the weekend will be cool, the second of the half of the weekend will be warmer.  In fact, we have a rather remarkable warming trend in the week ahead, through Halloween.  Then, all eyes are on an approaching strong front which will bring showers and storms to the state late Wednesday night into Thursday.  ‘Tis the season when we start to worry about severe weather, with a front like this.  It’s too early to say if this front will have  a tornado risk.  Sharply cooler air will follow the front.

Just before Dawn thick clouds cover the northern half of the state.  The clouds across the southern counties  are mainly high thinner cirrus clouds.

TODAY:   We’ll call today partly sunny, mixed in with a lot of clouds.  We should reach the mid 60’s by afternoon, with a cool west breeze at 6 to 12.   Tonight will be the chilliest night of the week.    Look for middle 40’s in central Alabama and upper 40’s across the southern counties.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Sunday is the start of a pronounced four day warming trend.  It’ll be well up in the 70’s on Sunday and Monday, and perhaps 80 or above on Tuesday and Halloween Wednesday.  Rain chances will increase by Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.  Rain and thunderstorms will spread across the area ahead on an important front.

Much cooler air will funnel in behind the front, just in time for the first November weekend.

SIGNIFICANT LATE WEEK FRONT:   Timing of the front, may change.  Right now, it appear the front will cross the area late Wednesday night into early Thursday.  It’s just too early to say if we will see a severe weather or tornado risk with this system.  We’ll know more as we get closer.  This is the time when we start our Fall tornado season.  We’ll be watching.  Much cooler air will funnel into the state behind the front.

Good Morning from the Gulf coast.  Here’s the beautiful Orange Beach sunset Bailey and I enjoyed Friday evening.

Hope you have a nice weekend!  I’ll have another Blog update first thing Sunday morning.  The next complete video will be online  Monday morning.

Rich