’Enhanced’ Risk of Severe Storms & tornadoes this evening and tonight. The set-up raises concern regarding tonight’s severe weather threat. There’s some model differences on how it could unfold. The threat includes severe storms with damaging winds and tornadoes. The fact that it’s happening at night is also concerning. On this video, I’ll break down the details on what we know, and the possible timeline. More details, later in the day, could change this scenario. I’ll do my best to keep you up to date. Plus: The latest on a nice Easter forecast for here and the Beach
FUTURE RADAR (NAM model): Let me caution you. This is only ONE model’s possible solution of how the evening and night could unfold. Some models are very different on timing and details. Do not take the timing and position of the storms literally.
It suggests possible supercell development well in advance of the main line as early as late this afternoon into this evening across west Alabama. These storms could be tornatic. Then, the emphasis shifts to the main line of storms, moving across the state tonight and through the overnight hours. This model appears to me a bit too SLOW. Some model solutions are FASTER with this line and some are SLOWER. Embedded cells could produce tornadoes along the line.
I like what the NWS in Birmingham has done with their suggested time window for the severe weather threat tonight. It’s very reasonable.
Friday, the storm threat shifts east, including the Severe Weather Risk. For Alabama it will be an unusually cool breezy day with leftover showers around from time to time.
After the cool, breezy Friday, Saturday AM start off chilly….in the mid 40’s Cool day Saturday, but the Sun is out. Easter Sunday at sunrise is cold…mid 40’s. But, the day Sunday is beautiful, with a high near 80. Monday and Tuesday will be nice. We’ll be storm-free for several days in a row.
Not a fun beach day Friday. Nice Saturday and Sunday. Cool Saturday, but a little warmer on Easter Sunday.
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