SUNDAY UPDATE:  Mild Week Ahead – Series of Disturbances

It’s been a great weekend so far, and most of today will be dry, with the temperature close to average for late January.  A low pressure disturbance in the Gulf will brush by the state tonight.  The best chance of showers will be overnight tonight and through the morning hours on Monday.  A similar disturbance will affect the state by Wednesday, and yet another one by the end of the week.  None of these disturbances appear to be a “big deal”. The bulk of the rain will remain off shore, in the Gulf.   No severe weather is anticipated.

TODAY & TONIGHT:  Most of the day will be dry.  Clouds will increase.  High around 57, which is normal for today.  Spotty showers possible, mainly after Noon.  Showers become likely tonight, and through the overnight hours.  Low 46.

Here are a few Future Radar snapshots at 9PM, Midnight and 3AM.

MONDAY:  Risk of rain early, especially in east and southeast Alabama.  Improvement by afternoon with clearing  skies.  Milder.  High 61.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  The last few days of January will be rather mild, with highs in the lower 60’s.  Another disturbance will brush by the area, Tuesday night into Wednesday. But, like the storm system tonight, much of the heavier rain will stay off the coast.  A third disturbance will bring another shower threat at the end of the week.

WHERE’S THE COLD AIR?:   I don’t see any clear signs of any arctic air over the next several days.  Here’s a look at the GFS model  raw temperature guidance out 16 days.  Looks like two cold fronts are noteworthy, one this weekend and another one closer to February 5.  Remember, don’t focus of the numbers…we’re just looking for trends.

I will have a video update for you first thing tomorrow morning. It should be online by about 4:45AM. Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Quiet Weekend – Sunday Night Rain

Today’s update is short and sweet, only because we are in a relatively quiet, benign weather pattern for the next few days.  In late January, “quiet” is a very good thing.

If you have outdoor plans, the news is good.  Unlike many weekends recently, this one will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will be very close to seasonable normals.  I don’t see anything Red Flags in the week ahead.  No big storms.  No arctic outbreaks. No severe weather.  I like being able to tell you that.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:  There will be a good bit of sunshine today.  Winds will be westerly at 5 to 10 mph.  Our high today of 56 and low tonight of 36, are both very close to the seasonal normal for this time of year.

SUNDAY NIGHT GULF DISTURBANCE:  A Low pressure Gulf storm system will brush by the state, pass south of us, Sunday night and Monday morning.  Most of Sunday will be dry.  There could be a late day shower.  The more likely risk of showers will come Sunday night, into early Monday morning.  Nothing heavy.  Nothing severe.  Monday morning will start cloudy with drizzle.  Then, look for improvement Monday afternoon.

NEXT FEW DAYS:    Following the Sunday night/Monday AM  Gulf disturbance, look for a mild start to the week.  We’ll be in the lower 60’s by Tuesday.  A mid-week disturbance will brush by the area with the risk of rain by Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The models disagree on how impactful this disturbance will be.

 

THE NEXT BIG DEAL?:  A storm system will effect the area late in the first week of February, and be followed by another big Temperature Drop.  But, that’s pretty far into the future.  For now, we’ll just keep an eye on it.

I’ll have another Blog update for you in the morning.  Have a great weekend.

-Rich

Updated Weekend Forecast – FRIDAY VIDEO

Good morning!  Timing is everything.  The storm system which brought rain to the area yesterday and overnight, will exit the state later this morning, just in time for the weekend. Skies will gradually clear by afternoon.  Looks like a mostly quiet weekend is in the cards. But, a Gulf Storm system will brush by the state by late Sunday and that could bring rain back to the area.  On this video, I have updated the details for the week ahead.  And, we’ll peek into early February.  Is there more cold air in our not too distant future.

 

The front that brought the rain exits early.  Gradual clearing will spread across the state mid day.  Pretty nice Friday.  We’ll tease 60 degrees.

Colder tonight, but we should stay above freezing this time.

Small rain chance daytime Sunday, as a Gulf storm system brushes by the area.  Better chance for scattered showers Sunday night into Monday morning.

No Arctic air next few days.  In fact, low 60’s early next week look pretty good at the end of January.

Rain Returns – Fast Moving Storm System – THURSDAY VIDEO

Good morning!  Wet weather is making a comeback, as a fast moving storm system crosses the Gulf States today and tonight.  Showers are likely, and even a few thunderstorms.  The timetable has been adjusted, again.  I’ll show you Future Radar, and how much rain could fall.  I made a few weekend forecast, too and we’ll take a peek at storm system around the middle of next week.  Are we done with Arctic air for now?  We’ll look ahead.

 

The storm system near Shreveport this morning will drag a warm front northward into Alabama later today.  Showers will become likely especially later on this afternoon and tonight.  A few thunderstorms are possible, too.

Here’s a couple of Future Radar snapshot tonight, as the line of stronger storms crosses the state.

The front moves through tomorrow morning.  Friday afternoon will show some improvement.

Some towns could get some locally heavy rainfall.  Some areas could see 1 to 1.5″ or more.

The storm system moves out of the way just in time for the weekend.  Sunshine and relatively mild temperatures Saturday.  I have very tiny rain chances in the Sunday forecast, as a Gulf disturbances brushes by the area.  Warmer Monday.

WEDNESDAY VIDEO: Chill Will Fade – Late Week Storm System

Good morning!  It’s another very cold Winter’s morning.  At least Wind Chill is not a big factor today.  Changes are on the way. Temperatures start to moderate today.  Our next storm system will bring showers into the state by tomorrow.  On this video, I’ll update you on a faster storm system timetable.  The weekend forecast continues to improve.  What’s next?  Are we done with arctic air for awhile?

 

After an Arctic Cold morning, temperatures will start to moderate this afternoon.  The 50’s start to sound good.

The timetable is now faster on our late week storm system.  Showers could arrive as early as lunchtime.  The front will exit the state Friday morning and that’ll shut off the rain chance.

After the storm system exits Friday morning, that should set the stage for a dry weekend, and fairly mild for this time of year.

Here’s the next storm system, about 8 days from now…

 

Could the Arctic Floodgates open again in the next two weeks?   SO FAR, the models are not seeing any arctic air.