SATURDAY UPDATE: Warm Weekend – Watching ETA’s Future in the Gulf Next Week

 Good morning!  The news for this first weekend of November is good.  It will be cloudy and times, but expect warm days and mild nights.  There could be a few isolated showers today, but the chance is small. 

   On the map, and on our mind for the week ahead will be the potential future track of Tropical Storm Eta.  The NHC cone covers much of the central and eastern Gulf.  It’s too early to say what Eta’s final destination will be late next week.  More on Eta below.

TODAY:   Cloudy at times, today and tonight, but warm and comfortable.  Some Atlantic moisture streaming into the state.  I can’t rule out a stray shower or two.   (Rain chance at 20% at best).  Today’s high 77.  (Yesterday’s high 80).  Low tonight 65. Here’s one Model’s idea of what Future Radar could look like at 1:30PM.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Mainly dry Sunday and Monday.  Clouds at times.  Warm for November.  Near or above 80 Monday & Wednesday.   Increasing chance of showers begins mid-week.  We’ll be watching the Future of Eta’s track, and the approach of a frontal system late in the week.  Stay tuned.

TROPICS:  Early this morning, Eta is on the verge of regaining Tropical Storm strength, in the warm waters of the Caribbean, 250 miles from Grand Cayman, moving ENE at 10.  Tropical storm watches and warnings cover parts of Cuba, The Cayman Islands, the Bahamas and now for much of south Florida on the east coast and west coast, including Miami and the Keys.  In Florida, the Tropical Storm Watch will be upgraded to a warning later today.  Rough weekend in Florida and the Bahamas.

  After Eta enters the Gulf early week, there is MUCH uncertainty about how Eta could evolve, which track it will take, and the timing factor.  That’s why the National Hurricane Center has such a huge balloon covering much of the eastern and central Gulf.  Extreme uncertainty. 

The EURO and GFS global model ensemble tracks are starting to shift a little more east.  Not as many tracks go straight north to the north central Gulf coast.  We like that trend, but in the year 2020, we are certainly going to take nothing for granted.  We’ll stay on top of this.

In Central America, Eta was a devastating Cat 4, 150 mph monster. It is estimated more than 150 died in Guatemala alone.

I hope you enjoy this comfortable first full weekend of November. I’ll have another Blog update early tomorrow morning.  Stay safe and warm.


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