Active Pattern Next 5 Days – Much Colder Next Week- WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  We’re in a transition from a tranquil weather pattern to a very active pattern over the next 5 days.  Storm system #1 will effect the state today and tonight.  A late weekend storm system looks little concerning.  And, in between, a series of disturbances will keep us wet at times.  There will be a low-end severe threat tonight, and perhaps a stronger threat Sunday. MUCH Colder air funnels into the state Monday.  Get ready for cold week next week.

Formidable storm system from the Great Lakes to the Gulf coast will affect Alabama today and tonight with showers and storms.

Some of the stronger storms could affect central and south Alabama after Midnight and into the wee hours.

Low end severe weather threat especially this evening and tonight, and particularly in the western and northwest counties. Can’t rule out a few severe storms. Marginal Risk.

The front slows up on Thanksgiving. I’m going to have to keep in at least a 30% chance of scattered showers in the forecast, especially through mid day. Comfortable. Highs in the 70’s

Wet at times through Sunday and perhaps early Monday, before it turns sharply colder.

That Sunday storm system looks concerning to me. I’m worried about severe weather. MUCH colder air follows the storm.

After weeks of dry weather, we could see a significant amount next 5 days.

Are you ready for a COLD BLAST next week? Sharply colder, starting Monday.

TUESDAY Video: Wednesday Storm System – Weekend Storm System – Much Colder Next Week

Good Morning!  Say goodbye to our quiet, tranquil weather pattern.  It ends today.  We are heading into an active pattern.  Storm system number one arrives Wednesday evening.  Another significant storm system will effect the state on Iron Bowl weekend.  Both storm systems have the potential to produce Severe Weather.  Sharply Colder air arrives by the start of next week. By far, the coldest air so far.  I’ll sort out the details on this video.

Enjoy the last quiet day today. Nice day after a chilly start.

Formidable storm system will effect much of the eastern half of the county on Thanksgiving eve. Showers and thunderstorms are possible here Wednesday afternoon, but there will be a better chance Wednesday evening and night. Some storms could be severe.

As the front slows up Thursday, we’ll have to leave in at least a small chance of scattered showers through Mid-Day.

Stormy Wednesday evening and night. Scattered showers Thanksgiving but very mild. The Weekend storm system has many components. First disturbance brings in showers and thunderstorms by late Friday. More showers and thunderstorms scattered on Iron Bowl Saturday. The main event is Sunday, especially late Sunday.

No severe weather expected on Iron Bowl Saturday, but Sunday there appears we could see severe weather is this next robust storm system moves through.

GET READY. The bottom drops out next week. Sharply colder air. Coldest of the season so far, by far.

This is just raw model data, don’t focus on specific numbers. BUT, it looks cold next week. First widespread freeze by Monday night.

Active Pattern Ahead – Two Storm Systems This Week – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  Today and tomorrow are the last of the storm-free quite days, after 3+ weeks of tranquil weather.  The first storm system brings showers & storms Wednesday.  New wrinkles in the Thanksgiving forecast as the front slows up.  Storm system number two will move in Iron Bowl Weekend.  Will we see any severe storms?  How much rain can we expect?  We have a lot to cover on Today’s video. 

Cooler day today, behind a weak cool front. But a nice quiet day… And, we like quite. An Active Pattern lies ahead this week.

The front has slowed up a bit. Now the better chance of showers and storms begins Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Some storms could be severe, especially over west and NW Alabama.

Quiet Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms return by Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, into Thanksgiving as the front slows. Small rain chance Friday. Active Iron Bowl weekend ahead, with the next storm system.

With the front slowing down, that throws a monkey wrench into the Thanksgiving forecast. I’ve had to add the risk of scattered showers back into the forecast.

The next big deal storm system arrives on Iron Bowl weekend. Will there be any severe storms? Too early to say. Looks like a pretty big deal storm system.

After a quiet month with only .05″ rainfall so far, it looks like we could see some significant rainfall in the week ahead.

Looks like the potential for a LOT of rain with these two storm systems this week. Here’s the rainfall potential through Sunday.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Dry for Now – Thanksgiving Eve Storm System

   Good morning!   Today will be the 11th day with no rain.  Our November total in Montgomery is a historic .05” so far.  But,  things are about to change as we get into a more active pattern in the week ahead, with two storm systems in our future. 

     Today is dry and warm again. A weak cool front sweeps through the state tonight.  We’ll be a little cooler on Monday.  But we still have our eyes on that Thanksgiving Eve storm system.  It will be our first significant storm system in November.  How strong?  Severe weather threat?   Will it stall on Thursday morning?  How will that affect Thanksgiving?  I’ll try to address all those questions below.

TODAY:  Dry and warm again.  Mid 70’s.  More clouds than sun.  Low tonight 51.  That weak cool front that sweeps through the state tonight will be “moisture starved”…a dry front. 


NEXT FEW DAYS:   Monday will be cooler behind the front.  Tuesday will be a nice day.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night. Timing of the front is very important to the Thanksgiving forecast.  Right now, I am cautiously optimistic.  Friday showers are “iffy” right now.  More on Irown Bowl Weekend below.

Here’s a coupe of models snapshots, showing the frontal movement from Wednesday afternoon through the early morning hours on Thursday.

Will this system have a severe weather potential?  The answers is.. MAYBE.  It’s too early to make that pronouncement. However, we note that SPC has a Marginal Severe Threat west of us on Tuesday.  I would NOT be surprised if they eventually add a Wednesday Marginal (Low end) severe threat for us Wednesday.  Stay tuned.

Here’s Thanksgiving morning, showing the front hopefully clearing the state.  That’s “iffy”.  The Thanksgiving forecast is subject to review, but I am cautiously optimistic.  Perhaps a leftover shower before 7AM.

IRON BOWL WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM?:  Call me crazy, because I’m about to speculate about a storm system a week away. The models agree that there will be a storm system next weekend…perhaps robust. But, the models do not agree on timing or strength, at all.  The GFS is fastest.  It brings the better chance of showers & storms on Saturday.  The EURO is slower and more disturbing.  It shows a potential severe weather threat by Saturday night or early Sunday.  Stay tuned.  As you probably know, we are in the heart of the Fall Severe Weather/Tornado season. We’ll watch this storm system all week.

TROPICS:  Kinda quiet.  One system in the Atlantic, northeast of the Bahamas with a small chance of developing into a sub-tropical storm later this week.  Next name is Kappa. 

Good Morning!:

I’ll have a complete video update in the morning.  Enjoy your Sunday.  

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE: Warm & Dry For Now – Thanksgiving Week Storm System

 Good Morning!   The news is good for the weekend.  It should be very comfortable for outdoor activities.  The Big Chill of the week has faded and retreated.  We’ll be well into the 70’s Today and Sunday.

    A weak cool front will cool us down a few degrees, briefly on Monday.  It will be a dry front. 

   The next big deal is that mid-week storm system.  Showers and storms are quite likely on Wednesday, Thanksgiving eve.  .The system has slowed down a bit.  I’ll leave a small rain chance in during the first part of the day Thanksgiving.

TODAY:   Really nice.  Hard to improve on.  There will be more sun than clouds.  Warm for November.  High 77.  (Normal hi/lo 68/43).  Partly cloudy, not as cool tonight,  Low 54. 

Yesterday’s high was 76.  Here’s highs across the area today.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The comfortable, storm-free pattern continues through Tuesday.  Showers and thunderstorms become likely Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Thanksgiving will be quite comfortable, with a chance of leftover showers first half of the day. 

That mid-week storm system will be quite formidable, effecting holiday travel from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast.  Here’s a snapshot of the EURO model Wednesday and 3PM. Right now, it’s not clear if this system will bring a severe weather threat to Alabama. We’ll be watching it closely. ‘Tis the season for severe weather here in the Deep South.

Here’s Thanksgiving at 9AM.  The front still hasn’t made it all the way through the state.  I’ll keep in a small rain chance in through mid-day Thursday.  Highs in the 70’s will be nice.

HISTORIC NOVEMBER?:  Right now, we are on pace for perhaps the driest November in Montgomery history.  Records began in 1872.  We have only had .05” so far.  Of course, we are expecting rain mid-week and again on Iron Bowl weekend.  We’ll talk more about that Iron Bowl weekend forecast later when details become clearer.


TROPICS:  Thankfully, right now, there is only one Area to Watch in the Atlantic, with only a small chance of development in the next 5 days.  We are 9 days away from the official end of the season.

GOOD MORNING!

I hope you enjoy this very comfortable late November. I’ll have another Blog update early tomorrow morning.  Stay safe and warm.

–Rich