Good Morning! We are a week away from the first day of Summer, but we are entrenched in a mid- summer pattern. Yesterday, in Montgomery, the Heat Index reached a season high of 102.5 at 1PM. Big heat frequently leads to big storms. The airport had a strong storm at 2:45PM with a 44 mph wind gust. (Rainfall: .58”) By the way, Troy also had a strong storm with a 41 mph wind gust at 3:39PM. Today, will be another “summer-like” day with spotty storms and a Heat Index near triple digits.
There are some changes on the horizon. Tomorrow, briefly, rain chances will be a little higher, as a frontal system drifts into the state. But, after Monday, the news gets a little better. Showers and storms will be hard to find. In fact, we should be generally dry Tuesday through Friday, with somewhat lower humidity. Quite an about face from the last several days.
Meanwhile, that Area to Watch in the Gulf has a number. I have the latest on Invest 92-L below.
We will be in-between fronts today. The best rain chance will be near the coast. A second front drifts into Alabama Monday.
TODAY: Hot and Humid. Sun/cloud mix. High in the low to mid 90’s. Heat Index 95 to100. Widely scattered afternoon evening storms. Low tonight 73.
MONDAY: I’ll take the rain chances just a bit higher. (40%), as a weak front drifts southward through the state. High 95. Heat index 100 to 103.
NEXT FEW DAYS: After the weak front moves through Monday, showers and storms practically vanish from the forecast for a few days, along with slightly lower humidity. More bearable.
TROPICS: That Area to Watch in the southwest Gulf of Mexico has been promoted to Invest 92-L. NHC now gives if a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days.
Most early model guidance takes this system into Mexico.
But, hold the phone. The American GFS model takes this system to the northern Gulf coast next weekend. It likes a track toward the Louisiana coast. The next name on the lust is BILL. Because this system is “in our back yard”, we will continue to closely monitor, of course. The rest of the tropics are quiet, for now.
I’ll have a complete video update tomorrow morning. Enjoy your Sunday!
–Rich