SUNDAY UPDATE: Phenomenal 4th of July Forecast – Elsa Heads for Florida

NHC 4PM: TS Elsa, with 60 mph winds is near Cabo Cruz, Cuba, moving WNW at 14 mph. Elsa will move across Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on Mon. and pass near the Florida Keys early Tues. Elsa will move near or over the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.

10AM: Tropical Storm Elsa, with 60 mph winds, is near Jamaica, moving WNW at 13 mph. Reaching eastern & central Cuba tonight, and then heading for the FLA straights Monday. Elsa will be near or over the west coast of FLA on Tuesday & Wednesday. Trop. Storm Warning in the Keys

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:

Happy 4^th of July! Happy Birthday America! The weather news is very GOOD. We have a storm-free holiday forecast. Sunshine will be dominate. Yes, it will be in the low 90’s, but the humidity, will be very tolerable, compared to normal, for this part of the world on the 4^th of July.

Spotty PM storms will start to populate the radar screen again on Monday the 5^th. Storms will become rather numerous by Tuesday & Wednesday, but not because of Tropical Storm Elsa. It looks more and more that Tropical Storm Elsa is Florida’s problem, not ours. We will be on the less active northwest side of Elsa. More on Elsa and the Florida threat below. Elsa, unfortunately has already been a killer in the Caribbean, and has done a lot of damage.

TODAY: On this 4^th of July holiday, we hit the jackpot. Storm-free. Abundant sunshine. High 92. (Dewpoints running 61 to 64. VERY acceptable on the 4^th of July….not too humid) Mainly clear for Fireworks tonight. Overnight low 71.

NEXT FEW DAYS: Risk of spotty PM storms returns Monday. The risk of showers and storms increases during the week, becoming likely. YES, we are still monitoring the future track of Elsa. But, it looks more and more that Tropical Storm Elsa is Florida’s problem, not ours. We will be on the less active northwest side of Elsa’s track.

BEACH OUTLOOK: Because the old front is still parked near the coast, that’s where the best rain chance will continue to be. More showers and thunderstorms.

HIGH Rip Current Risk continues from about Destin, through the 30-A Beaches, and Panama City to Mexico Beach. MODERATE Rip Current Risk on the Alabama coast and through Pensacola.

HURRICANE ELSA: Elsa continues to tear through the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Elsa, with 65 mph winds, is now about 85 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica. The forward speed has slowed down considerably. Now moving WNW at 14 mph. A turn to the NW is expected tonight. With the track taking Elsa over Cuba, that should hinder much future development. However, when the storm reaches the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, further strengthening is certainly possible. Elsa will begin effecting the Florida Straights tomorrow, and the forecast cone still covers Florida and much of the Southeast US. Elsa is the only thing in the tropics we are watching right now.