Good Morning! Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
YESTERDAY’s High was 94, after a morning low 68. Heat Index reached 101. Normal: 88/65. Sunrise 6:34. Sunset 6:42.
TODAY: Fall officially Begins at 8:04PM tonight. Mostly Sunny Hot & humid. High in the upper 90’s. (The record is 99 in 1925) Heat index near or above 100 this afternoon. Rain chance 10 to 20%. Wind becomes northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Mainly Clear tonight. Low 66.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Prog_thurs-6.jpg)
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/prog_fri-5.jpg)
Forecast Map at 1PM, shows a southward moving front, which will reach the coast by morning. Friday will feel much nicer. Not as hot. Less humid.
Could there be a stray shower along the front today? The chances are small. 10 to 20% at best.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HRRR3-9-1024x551.jpg)
NEXT FEW DAYS: A weak front will drift southward through the state this afternoon. Behind the front, the high temperature Friday will be about 8-9 days cooler. Lower humidity. Saturday should be dry & warm. Spotty showers are possible Sunday ahead of the next weak front. Behind it, Monday will be much more comfortable.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/week_ahead-20-1024x556.jpg)
Another front will bring a small rain chance Sunday, followed by nice relief Monday.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Prog_sun-3.jpg)
TROPICAL OUTLOOK: There are FIVE features being tracked by NHC, including Major Hurricane Fiona, Tropical Storm Gaston, and two Areas to Watch. But, we are focusing only on Invest 98-L in the Tropical Atlantic. The future Hermine. It has a 90% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. Another Air Force RECON flight will investigate this system this morning.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/TWO-21.jpg)
This system needs to be closely monitored. There is a very good chance this system is destined to be a problem in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Let’s check some of the Tropical Model plots, pointing toward the Gulf. It’s likely we will be dealing with a Hurricane in the Gulf. Where could it make landfall….and when?
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/spagagetti1-4-1024x635.jpg)
The EURO model also favors the Idea of 98-L reaching the Gulf. Here’s a look at potential EURO Ensemble Tracks. Many tracks seem to favor Florida.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/spagagetti3-2-1024x578.jpg)
Now here’s the GFS Ensemble tracks. The GFS is farther west with it’s tracks. Stay tuned as we continue to track future Hermine.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/spagagetti2-2.jpg)
Monster, Cat 4 Hurricane Fiona will be a historic hurricane for the Canadian Maritime provinces.
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/sat-5-1024x597.jpg)
![](https://richthomasweathernetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/cone-9.jpg)
Thanks for reading this Blog this morning! This morning we are LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk 93.1. Watch us on TV on CBS 8 and ABC 32. I’ll have another update for you in the morning. Have a great day!
–Rich