Good Morning! It’s an extremely cold Monday morning. Actual lows in the upper teens to near 20 are a good bet. Wind chills in the single digits and low teens will be likely at Dawn. This MLK holiday will be quite cold, with highs barely into the middle 30’s. A Gulf storm system will bring a risk of accumulating snowfall Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the heaviest snow along and south across south Alabama. A Winter Storm Watch will likely be upgraded to a Warning. Significant travel problems are likely especially along and south of US80/I-85. Extremely Cold Artic air will dominate the week with highs mostly in the 30’s and overnight lows in the upper teens and lower 20’s. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: COLD Weather Advisory. Sunshine but quite cold and brisk. High 36. North wind 12-18 mph.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds and very cold. Low near 20.
TUESDAY: WINTER STORM WARNING Chance of morning flurries after 8AM . Then periods of snow after Noon. High mid 30’s. Accumulating snow is expected. Snow becomes likely Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Snow should end by Midnight. Low Tuesday night 17.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be the coldest days and nights. Look for late week warming. Middle 50’s return Saturday.
WINTER STORM Approaches:
A Gulf storm system will bring a risk of accumulating snowfall Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the heaviest snow along and south across south Alabama. A Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Significant travel problems are likely especially along and south of US80/I-85.
Some of the heaviest projected snowfall will be most likely in extreme south Alabama.
A Winter Storm Warning now covers the southern half of Alabama from about Montgomery/Selma southward. North of that line a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
Here’s the IMPACT map from NWS. TNo major impact changes. At this time, the best chance for snow appears to be across the southern half of Alabama. Impacts for a lot of us could begin by mid morning Tuesday and continue through about 11PM Tuesday night. Anything that melts on the roadway will refreeze again Tuesday night, with a low of 16, so travel could still be rather icy and hazardous on Wednesday morning. Expect major improvement with sunshine and upper 30’s Wednesday afternoon.
Potential Snowfall accumulation numbers have gone down, this is great news, of course, but remember it only takes a little bit of accumulation to cause major traffic concerns. Now looks like the best chance of 1-2″ would be along and south of a Russell , Pike, Butler county line.
Here’s a couple of model snapshots Tuesday evening at 6:00PM.
We’re now in the range of some of most of the Hi-res models. Here’s an interesting model snapshot of the FV3 model Tuesday at 3:00PM showing the extent and type of winter precipitation.
As far as potential accumulation, here’s the National Model Blend. Heavier snow totals are expected in parts of MS and LA.
Look at the extent of the snow band across the Deep South. Potentially quite historic and memorable.
Here’s the NWS Detailed Technical Forecast discussion.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=BMX
Here’s the 10 Day Model Blend Temperature Trend, Our week ahead wilk be dominated by extremely cold days and frigid nights. But, take a look at the weekend. A nice warming trend.
Thanks for reading this special blog update. There will be additional updates as more information becomes available. I’ll be LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk WACV. I’m planning another Facebook Live at 11:00 AM on our Weather Page.
There will be another Blog Update early tomorrow morning. In the 4 o’clock hour. Our Weather App will keep you on top of the action with instant Winter Weather Alerts.
–Rich