Good Morning! Enjoy another tranquil and beautiful weather day today. But, get ready. We are about to get into a very turbulent period. Today will be rather beautiful. High in the upper 70’s to near 80. The first risk of showers and storms begins on Thursday. There is a Level 1 – Marginal Severe Risk. The next round of severe weather begins Friday night, especially across the northwest half of our state. But, then comes the main event. A much more important significant Severe weather “Outbreak” on Saturday and Saturday night, through the overnight hours until, perhaps early Sunday morning. Expect all modes of severe weather including tornadoes. The caliber of this particular threat continues to become more ominous. Here’s my brief forecast discussion.
TODAY: Sunny and nice. Warmer. High upper 70’s to near 80. Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Mainly clear tonight. Low 53.
NEXT FEW DAYS: The next risk of showers and storms arrives by Tomorrow. Some storms could be strong/severe. Highs will be near 80 by Friday and Saturday. Ingredients for a significant Severe Risk by Saturday and Saturday night continue to increase. Start planning for this event now.
On the Thursday, SPC has now added a Marginal (level 1) severe Risk. The main risk on the Thursday system will be damaging wind gusts. Scroll down for the “meat and potatoes” on the increasing Saturday risk.
Another round of Severe Weather is expected especially Friday night, particularly across the northwest part of our state. This includes an enhanced level 3 risk in northwest Alabama.
MAIN EVENT SATURDAY: Ingredients are coming together for a potentially significant Severe Weather “Outbreak”, including all modes of Severe Weather, including damaging wind gusts 75+ mph, tornadoes, including the risk for strong tornadoes, along with the potential of large hail up to tennis ball size. The greatest threat begins Saturday afternoon in through Saturday night into the early hours of Sunday morning. The ingredients for severe weather makes this round of severe weather appear increasingly dangerous.
The risk level is notable and increasingly ominous. SPC has indicated a level 3 out of 5. The 30% Enhanced area. It covers the whole state.
Weather geeks will appreciate this detailed discussion. Here’s the technical Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS Birmingham. Sobering. Rather ominous in its tone.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=BMX
The potential rainfall through Sunday. The risk for significant rainfall totals is particularly high across north Alabama.
Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend. Normal hi/lo 71/46.
As far as cloudiness, it’s highly unlikely that we’ll be able to enjoy the full lunar eclipse in the wee hours on Friday morning. HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
Thanks for reading this blog update. This morning everything is normal. We’ll be LIVE on NewsTalk 93.1. There will be another Blog Update and Forecast Video discussion in the 4’o’clock hour tomorrow morning. Have a good day.
–Rich