Good Morning! BEWARE of the Ides of March. Looks like a muti-round severe risk, including a potentially dangerous multi-mode Saturday Severe Threat. The first risk of showers and storms begins today. There is a Level 1 – Marginal Severe Risk. The next round of severe weather arrives in the overnight hours Friday night, especially across the northwest half of our state. But, then comes the main event. A much more significant Severe “Outbreak” on Saturday and Saturday night, through the overnight hours. SPC now has a sobering Level 4 Moderate Risk for much of central & south Alabama. Expect all modes of severe weather including potentially life-threatening strong long-track tornadoes. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Showers and thunderstorms are likely. Some storms strong, possibly severe. Large Hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary risks. South wind at 6 to 12 mph. The shower risk starts to fade by early evening. Mild tonight. Low 59.
SPC has a Level 1 Marginal Severe Risk for much of our state Today. Damaging wind gusts and the potential for large hail are the main risks. The tornado risk is not quite zero, but close.
Future radar. Here’s lunchtime today on the HRRR model.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Turbulent times until Sunday morning. Daytime Friday is dry and very warm. High in the low 80’s. A round of storms will affect our state in the overnight hours late Friday night and pre-dawn Saturday morning. The next more concerning outbreak of storms Saturday afternoon and night into the overnight hours. Most of the activity is gone by Sunday AM. But, we’ll hang on to a small rain chance Sunday. Dry weather Monday and Tuesday. The next risk of showers & storms arrives by the middle of next week.
Another round of Severe Weather is expected especially Friday night, particularly across the northwest part of our state. This includes an enhanced level 3 risk in northwest Alabama. Tornadoes are possible. Even though we are focused on the Main event late Saturday and Saturday night, do not discount this late Friday night/Saturday morning threat.
MAIN EVENT SATURDAY: Ingredients are coming together for a potentially significant and dangerous Severe Weather “Outbreak”, including all modes of Severe Weather, including damaging wind gusts 75+ mph, tornadoes, including the risk for strong long-lived tornadoes, along with the potential of large hail up to tennis ball size. The greatest threat begins Saturday afternoon in through Saturday night into the early hours of Sunday morning. The ingredients for severe weather makes this round of severe weather appear increasingly dangerous. All parameters look impressive including the upper level wind field. Here’s the projection of the 500 MB level late Saturday.
The models continue to advertise an extremely dangerous scenario.
The Storm Prediction Center now has a Level 4 Moderate risk covering much of central and South Alabama for Saturday and Saturday night. It is not out of the question that SPC could even potentially elevate this threat to HIGH risk. Not out of the question.
The TORNADO RISK map is sobering. Much of central and south Alabama is now in a 45-60% risk within 25 miles of any given point. Significant strong long-track tornadoes (EF-2 or stronger). This could be a Significant Tornado OUTBREAK.
This is very helpful. NWS now has assigned some general time lines for this potentially dangerous tornado threat on Saturday. For instance 4PM to Midnight in the Montgomery area. Level 4 Severe Weather/Damaging winds/Tornado threat. Stay in touch with the latest information.
Potential rainfall through Sunday. The risk for significant rainfall totals is particularly high across north Alabama.
Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend. Normal hi/lo 71/46.
Unfortunately, the cloud cover situation tonight is NOT good for Total Lunar Eclipse viewing.
Thanks for reading this blog update. This morning everything is normal. We’ll be LIVE on NewsTalk 93.1. There will be another Blog Update and Forecast Video discussion in the 4’o’clock hour tomorrow morning. Stay up to date with the latest information.
–Rich