RARE HIGH SEVERE RISK
12:45 pm 3/14/25
Concern is growing for the Saturday Severe Weather Threat. SPC has taken the extraordinary upgrade to HIGH risk for parts of central and west Alabama. The last time this has happened on a Day 2 outlook was 2012. SPC says EF-4 Level, long-track tornadoes “should” happen. Quite a statement. The damaging wind threat is now 45 to 60%. This will certainly qualify as a Tornado “Outbreak”. The Level 5 High risk is along and north of a line from Gadsden to Prattville, and it includes Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. If you live in a manufactured home, make plans to GET OUT and go to a substantial structure when a Tornado Watch is issued.
Good Morning! All signs continue to point to a potentially significant and extremely dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, including all modes of Severe Weather. The threat includes damaging wind gusts 75+ mph, possibly several tornadoes, including the risk for violent, long-track tornadoes, along with the potential of large hail up to tennis ball size. Today, is the calm before the storm. Expect a high in the low 80’s. There’s even a risk of some potentially strong to severe storms in the overnight hours late tonight/Saturday morning. On Sunday, behind the storms system, mostly sunny weather returns. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Limited Sunshine. Warm for March. High in the lower 80’s. SE wind 6 to 16 mph. Dry through the evening hours. Risk of some spotty strong to severe storms overnight. Low 65. SE wind gusting as high as 25 mph.
Another round of potentially Severe Weather is expected especially late tonight, in the overnight hours, especially across the northwest part of our state. This includes an enhanced level 3 risk in northwest Alabama. Tornadoes are possible. Even though we are focused on the Main event late Saturday and Saturday night, do not discount this late tonight night/Saturday morning threat.
There are many question marks. Here’s the HRRR model Saturday morning. Could this complex of storms potentially alter the severity of the afternoon/night storms?
MAIN EVENT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: We are still in a Level 4 – MODERATE Risk from the Storm Prediction Center. All signs continue to point to a potentially significant and extremely dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, including all modes of Severe Weather. The threat includes damaging wind gusts 75+ mph, possibly several tornadoes, including the risk for violent, long-track tornadoes, along with the potential of large hail up to tennis ball size.
The Storm Prediction Center now has a Level 4 Moderate risk covering much of central and South Alabama for Saturday and Saturday night. It is not out of the question that SPC could even potentially elevate this threat to HIGH risk. Not out of the question.
This is the updated Tornado Risk Outlook for Saturday & Saturday night. The hatched area covers all of Alabama where there could be some strong to violent (EF-2+), long-track (25+ miles) tornadoes.
Here’s the dangerous set-up Saturday evening.
This may be very helpful to you for your planning purposes. Here’s the latest timing guidance from the National Weather Service.
Here’s a very insightful technical forecast discussion from NWS Birmingham (BMX).
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=BMX
NEXT FEW DAYS: Following the Severe Weather Event Saturday night, mostly sunny weather returns Sunday. Dry weather Monday and Tuesday. The next risk of showers & storms arrives by Wednesday night.
Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend. Normal hi/lo 71/46.
Thanks for reading this blog update. This morning everything is normal. We’ll be LIVE on NewsTalk 93.1. There will be another Blog Update and Forecast Video discussion in the 4’o’clock hour tomorrow morning. Stay up to date on the latest information as we get closer to this potentially dangerous, possibly life threatening situation.
–Rich