Good Morning! The warmth is locked in. It will be comfortably warm for the next few days with highs mostly in the lower 80’s. We are expecting dry, storm-free weather through Friday. Looks like we’ll be dealing with a two-part storm system Saturday into Monday. Part one will bring a round of showers and storms on Saturday and Saturday evening. A stronger threat of storms is expected late Sunday night into mid-day Monday. The Storm Prediction Center is still highlighting a Level 2 (15%) Severe Risk. The timeline appears to have slowed down. The EURO and GFS models are leaning toward Monday morning for the stronger storms. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Warm day. Light wind. High near 80. Cloudy tonight, then clearing. Low 51
NEXT FEW DAYS: Expect some warm days from today through the weekend. Storm-free & dry. Most days we will be 80 or above. The warmest day will be Sunday. We reach the mid 80’s. Looks like we’ll be dealing with a two-part storm system Saturday into Monday. Part one will bring a round of showers and storms on Saturday afternoon/evening. A stronger threat of storms is expected late Sunday night into mid-day Monday, including a Severe Weather Risk. More on that threat below.
A series of warm days are in the cards across the southeast US through the next few days. (Normal hi/lo 74/48) Tuesday’s high was 79.
NEXT SEVERE WEATHER RISK: Details are still sketchy on our next severe weather threat. The EURO and GFS models are leaning toward Monday morning for the stronger storms. SPC is still highlighting a Level 2 (15%) Severe Risk – particularly early to mid-day Monday. Understand the Day 5 Severe Risk ends at 7AM Monday and the Day 6 Risk begins at 7AM Monday. That’s why you are seeing 2 maps.
Here’s a couple of model snapshots showing the wee hours of Monday morning through mid-day Monday could be primetime for the greatest severe risk.
Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend. The warmth will continue.
POLLEN: Looks like pollen will continue to be a major issue for the next several days.
Thanks for reading this blog update. This morning everything is normal. We’ll be LIVE on NewsTalk 93.1. There will be another Blog Update and Forecast Video discussion in the 4’o’clock hour tomorrow morning. Have a good day.
–Rich