SUNDAY UPDATE: Record Warm End to February? – March Starts Rainy and Much Cooler

     Good Morning!  Get ready for a warm last day of February.  The record high for today is 83 from 1948.  We could easily tie it or break it.  Enjoy today’s warmth.  Big changes are on the way.  March will start very wet, and turning much cooler.

     The cold front which has been parked near the Tennessee border all weekend will move southward tonight.  The front will make it to the coast by morning.  Waves of low pressure will move along the front through Tuesday.  Get the umbrellas ready.  We’ll be wet at times tonight, Monday and through Tuesday night. 

     Monday will be cooler.  Tuesday will be chilly.  This will be a radical change after we have become so spoiled with the nice weather, all week.  The best news is….I do not expect any severe weather, because the front will move south of us. 

TODAY:  Patchy morning fog. I can’t rule out a little patchy drizzle early.  There will be more clouds than sun today.  Our projected High of 83° would be a record. Breezy today, with south wind 10 to 16,   Showers and thunderstorms move in tonight.  Overnight low 65.

Parts of Northwest Alabama could see some strong/severe storms.

MONDAY:  Periods of rain and maybe a few thunderstorms.  Cooler.  High 68.  Rain continues Monday night.  Chilly.  Low 48.

Be ready for a wet commute Monday morning.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Wet start to March.  Periods of rain through Tuesday night.  Chilly Tuesday.  Highs in the 50s.  Back to the 60’s Wednesday and Thursday.  Small risk of showers Friday.

Here’s the projected rainfall through Wednesday.

We’ll be below normal, but we will ease back to just above normal Thursday.  No freezing temperatures are expected.

ARE WE DONE?:   Everybody wants to know…Are done with freezing temperatures.  I don’t know.  I don’t see any freezing temperatures in the next 16 days. 

   The average date of the last freeze is March 8th.  Last year the final freeze was this date, February 28th.  The latest freeze on record is April 13, 1940. 

GOOD MORNING FROM ST. AUGUSTINE:  Today I’ll be a tourist, walking in the historic district.  Yesterday was a day with family, and some beach time. We ate at the famous Columbia Restaurant   The high in Montgomery of 81 yesterday was similar to the high of 81 here in St. Augustine.  Low 80’s, sunshine today.  This is sunrise yesterday near the famous St. Augustine lighthouse. 

I’ve been coming to St. Augustine since my brother first moved here in 1988.

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Since I’m still on vacation, I’m not sure if I’ll post a movie tomorrow morning, or a blog.  We’ll see.  A blog takes half the time.  Have a great Sunday.  Enjoy the record warmth. The nice weather is about to end.

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE: Flirting with Weekend Record Highs? – March Will Start Wet

     Good Morning!  Alabama remains a state divided.  It’s quite cool in the far North, but much of central and south Alabama remains in the warm air. 

     This last weekend of February will be rather remarkable.  The normal high is 65, normal low 42.  Toady and Saturday, we’ll be in the low 80’s.  The record high for today is 84 from 1962.  Sunday’s record is 83 in from 1948. 

      Today, the concentrated rain stays to the north near the front near the parked frontal system.  Most of us south of the front will only see a stray shower at best.

The Severe Weather risk stays away from Alabama this weekend.

TODAY:  Patchy dense fog will be an issue is some spots through 9AM.  Today with be mostly cloudy, with a few sun breaks.  High 82.  Isolated stray showers can’t be ruled out, but the chance is only about 20% at best.  South wind 4 to 8 mph.  Low tonight 64.

SUNDAY:  Much like today.  Mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm.  High 83, which would tie the record.  Only isolated stary showers are possible.   Showers and thunderstorms become likely by late Sunday night.  Low 62.

REMARKABLE STRING OF DAYS:  What a last week of February!   We started with 70 on Monday, and made it to 80 by Thursday, and now lower 80’s this weekend.  What a nice break from Winter.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  That front in north Alabama will sink southward.  Waves of low pressure will move along the front.  Showers and thunderstorms will become likely, especially Sunday night through Tuesday.  The risk of showers will remain in the forecast, late week as well, through Thursday and perhaps Friday, too.

Here’s the expected rainfall amounts through Tuesday.

So, this last weekend in February will be unusually warm.  The first week of March will be considerably cooler, but not cold.

Good Morning from St. Augustine.  The weather here is nice.  While yesterday’s high in Montgomery was 79, it was sunny and 76 here.  Should be a great weekend.  I’m actually staying at a hotel in Vilano Beach.  Here’s my Atlantic ocean view from my Balcony.  I have relatives here.  This weekend I plan to be a tourist.  It’s been about 8 or 9 years since I was last here.  St. Augustine is quaint and beautiful.  Oldest city in North America, founded in the 1500’s.

Here’s the marina and Lighthouse, right now, at Sunrise, a little while ago. First lighthouse at this location in 1589. (This one restored in 1874. )

Chase is staying with a friend in Wetumpka this weekend.

I’ll have another Blog update early tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend!  Enjoy the near record warmth.  

–Rich

Warm End to February – Teasing Records – March Starts Wet

Happy Friday!   A frontal system, draped across the state, will move northward today.  The concentrated rain will be in north Alabama.  For the rest of us, today will be another above normal day, with highs in the 70’s.  It looks like we are headed for a remarkable last weekend in February, with highs near or above 80 degrees.  In fact, we may be in record high territory by Sunday.  I’ll update the details on this video and we’ll look ahead to a wet start to the month of March.  Any severe weather?

A stray shower or two can’t be ruled out, but the rain chance in our part of the state is small today. Highs will be well above normal again .

Today most of the active weather in our state will be confined to north Alabama. Some storms could be strong.

Highs 80 or above this weekend. (Normal high 64) On Sunday we could tie or break the record high of 83 in 1948.

Very warm weekend. Tiny rain chance, as February comes to an end. Wet start to March. Good Morning!   A frontal system, draped across the state, will move northward today.  The concentrated rain will be in north Alabama.  For the rest of us, today will be another above normal day, with highs in the 70’s.  It looks like we are headed for a remarkable last weekend in February, with highs near or above 80 degrees.  In fact, we may be in record high territory by Sunday.  I’ll update the details on this video and we’ll look ahead to a wet start to the month of March.  Any severe weather?

Wet start to March. Showers and thunderstorms. Any severe weather Tuesday? Still not clear. The models disagree on the details.

Significant rainfall potential possible (next 5 days) across the northern teir of the state. But, the expected rainfall amounts taper dawn quite a bit in south Alabama.

The first week of March will be cooler but not cold. No Arctic Air.

Full “Snow” moon tonight.

Extended Spring-like Pattern – Risk of Showers Returning

Good Morning!   Our amazing string of days continues.  Spring-like warmth is locked in through the weekend and beyond.  Today will be dry, but the risk of showers returns late tonight and Friday.  The weekend will be quite warm.  Could we reach 80 degrees both days?   A series of storm systems will brush by the area.  The most significant, perhaps, would be first of next week.  I’ll bring you up to date with the updated details on this video.

Weak front moving through the state today. I expect a mainly dry day…and the the very mild temperatures continue. Back to the 70’s today. Showers return late tonight.

Scattered showers Friday. Smaller ran chance this weekend. Highs near 80 Saturday and Sunday. (Records 84 and 83) Better chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday.

Too early to say if that early week storm system will involve a Severe Weather Threat.

Happy to say that the Arctic Flood Gates are closed for the next 10 days as February ends and March begins.

Winter on Hold For Now – Showers Risk Late Week

Good Morning!  Our string of nice late February Days continues.  Today will be just about perfect, with highs well into the 70’s.  The risk of scattered showers will return by late Thursday night and through the upcoming weekend.  Best chance of showers Friday.  But, the above normal temperatures will remain as February comes to an end and March begins.  Winter is on hold for now. Enjoy this nice spring-like break.  I have an update on the temperatures and the rain chance for the next few days.

Enjoy what will be an absolutely sensational day. Normal high 64. Today we’re headed for the middle 70’s.

GREAT Late February day. Well above normal. Beautiful.

A persistent front will oscillate north and south Thursday night and through the weekend. That will keep the risk of showers in the forecast. Much of the weekend the front will be near the Tennessee border. That’s where the best chance of rain will be.

Much of the weekend the front will be near the Tennessee border. That’s where the best chance of rain will be. Not much rain in the extreme southeast counties.

No arctic air in the cards for the next few days. Wet at times Friday through Monday.

The GFS hints at a brief cool down next Tuesday and Wednesday. But, NO Arctic Air for the next couple of weeks.