SUNDAY UPDATE:  Summer Ends on a Cool Note – How Could Tropical Storm Beta Effect Alabama Later This Week?

Good morning!  We have been enjoying some very comfortable temperatures on this last full weekend of Summer.  We should be in the very comfortable mid 70’s again today, and on the last day of summer, Monday.  Nights continue pleasantly cool.

We continue to watch very slow moving Beta.  It is still possible that the moisture from Beta could affect us later in the week.  Meanwhile, the clouds above us for the next several days are a product of Tropical Storm Beta.

TROPICAL STORM BETA:  Beta is undergoing a little shear tis morning.  It’s a 60 mph Tropical Storm, 205 miles SE of Galveston, moving west at 3.  A hurricane watch continues on the on the Texas coast.  A Tropical Storm Warning continues for part of the TX and LA coast.  Beta will tease the Texas coast for a few days with very heavy rainfall.  Then, it will curve northeastward and eastward into LA.  The cone of uncertainty now touches the west Alabama border.

TODAY:  Sunshine mixed with high clouds.  Should be dry.  High in the mid 70’s again.  (We had a high of 74 Saturday).   Nice breeze!  (East wind at 11 to18 mph)   Upper 50’s tonight.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Pleasantly cool and comfortable.  Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50’s through Wednesday.  Chance of showers from Beta by Tuesday and Thursday and Friday.  Details on how Beta might effect us are still fuzzy.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:   Obviously, extremely dangerous Cat. 3 Teddy is still very much the star of the show.  Even though it will miss the U.S., large swells and surf will continue to batter the east coast.  Teddy will effect the Canadian Maritime providences on Tuesday evening.  And, it could still be a Tropical Storm when it approaches Greenville.  Also, there is weak Tropical Storm Wilfred, and post tropical cyclone Paulette.  Close to the Florida coast is an Area to Watch with a small chance of development.

FALL BEGINS TUESDAY:  Monday is the last day of summer, officially.  Tuesday Fall begins.  It’s the Autumnal equinox, when the direct rays of the sun cross the Equator.  Equinox meaning equal day and equal night.  Fall officially begins at 8:30AM CDT.

I’ll have a complete video Monday morning. There may be additional updates today as needed.  Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday.

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Cooler Comfortable Weekend – All Eyes on BETA in the Western Gulf

10:00am  UPDATE:

Interesting to see the evolution of Beta’s future track. Beta is 60 mph Trop. Storm in the western Gulf, which will interact with the Texas coast perhaps as a hurricane Tuesday, before looping the northeast and east into LA Thursday. It’s been a busy season for Gulf landfalls.  

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

Good morning!  How about a taste of cooler, much more comfortable air on the last full weekend of summer?  No, we are not expecting blue skies and sunshine, but, that’s the trade off for now.  If you look at the radar this morning,  it looks like it’s raining all over south Alabama.  It isn’t. Clouds and moisture are streaming into the state from Tropical Storm Beta.  However, the air near surface is very dry.  Most raindrops  falling are drying out before they reach the ground.  It’s an effect called virga.

So, we’re in for cloudy weather today, light showers at times, but the days and nights will be comfortable this weekend.  We could even see some lows in the 50’s by Sunday and Monday night.  Fall officially begins on Tuesday.

Then there is Tropical Storm Beta in the western Gulf, which is expected to become a hurricane within 36 hours.  Is Beta just  a Texas/Louisiana problem?  Or could we be dealing with Beta’s effects later this week here along the central Gulf coast.? It depends on which model you look at.  Obviously, after dealing with Sally this week, NOBODY wants to worry about tracking another potential tropical threat.  Much more on Beta, below.  We are now two letters into the Greek alphabet.

TODAY:  Cloudy.  Spotty isolated showers are possible at times today and tonight.  High in the upper 70’s. Low tonight 61.  East wind at 5 to 10 mph.

 TROPICAL STORM BETA:  Beta is a 60 mph tropical storm in the western Gulf, halfway between the mouth of the Rio Grande and the mouth of the Mississippi.  It’s moving north at 8 now, but, it’ll drift west to closer to Texas later in the weekend.  It’s expected to become a hurricane.  A hurricane watch is in effect along the Texas coast.

CURRENT SET-UP AND BETA’S FUTURE:  Right now, the Jetstream has reached south to the Gulf coast.  That’s why we are enjoying this nice cool-down.  It’s also keeping Beta away from us.  In a few days the Jetstream will retreat.

After the jet retreats, will that allow the tropical system to move eastward later in the week?   How strong would it be?  What effect could it have on us?   We simply don’t know.  It would be late week.

 

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:  There’s two other named systems out there.  Teddy is the most interesting.  It’s still a Cat 4 hurricane with 125 mph winds.  It is causing tremendous wave action in much of the Atlantic islands and along the east coast.  It could have a profound impact on the Canadian maritime provinces by late Tuesday. Wilfred is a weak tropical storm.  And there are two other areas on interest out there in the eastern Atlantic.  One of them is the remnants of Paulette.

THE GREEK ALPHABET:  It’s out with the old hurricane list and into the Greek Alphabet.  Already we are two names in.  We’ve only had to use this list one other time in 2005.  We got down to Zeta that year.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Comfortable weekend!   Look at those morning lows Monday through Wednesday.  By Wednesday and Thursday, will we be dealing with some of the moisture from Beta?  We just don’t know.

FALL BEGINS TUESDAY:  Monday is the last day of summer.  Fall begins Tuesday.

I’ll have another blog update in the morning, or later today if needed.   I’ll have new information from the National Hurricane Center.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your weekend!

–Rich

Cooler, Comfortable Weekend – Watching the Western Gulf – FRIDAY Video

11:30 AM Update:

Hold the phone…we are now into the Greek alphabet with Tropical Storm Alpha. But, wait. It’s not that system in the Gulf (TD 22). No. This is a storm off the coast of Portugal heading toward Spain. Next up, could we see “Beta” in the Gulf later this afternoon? CRAZY.

10:00AM Update:  

Guess what? Wilfred is born, but not in the Gulf. It’s a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic with 40 mph winds. We’ve run out of names. That means if TD 22 in the Gulf gets upgraded today, it will get the name Alpha, from the Greek alphabet.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE: 

Good Morning!   First the good news.  The last weekend of summer will be very comfortable indeed.  How about highs in the 70’s, and some much cooler nights?  Perhaps lows in the 50’s starting Sunday night.  But, out in the western Gulf, we’re monitoring more Tropical Trouble.  Do we need to worry about this new tropical threat?  Elsewhere, the tropics continue to be very busy.

Tiny rain chance today.  Cooler air is on the way for the weekend!

Elsewhere in the tropics…Teddy is a 140 mph Cat 4 Hurricane.  Invest 98-L is likely to become a depression or tropical storm.  And there are two other areas to watch in the eastern Atlantic.

 

 

Sally’s Effects Will Fade Away – Comfortable Weekend Temperatures Ahead – THURSDAY Video

As Sally heads into Georgia today, there will be some lingering showers around her circulation, but the heavy rain and the gusty winds are gone.  Now, the focus will be on  a very comfortable last weekend of summer, with temperatures that will feel more like Fall…finally.  The tropics are still busy.  What is that in the southwest Gulf of Mexico?  Anything to worry about?

 

At 4AM Tropical Depression Sally was 50 miles SE f Montgomery moving NE at 12mph.

Lingering Sally effects today will be scattered light showers on the back side of T.D. Sally’s circulation.

Look at that comfortable last weekend of summer!   Nice temperatures.  Tiny rain chance.  Look at those upper 50’s Monday & Tuesday AM!

Elsewhere in the tropics Teddy is a major Hurricane, Vicky a Tropical Storm and there are three Invests out there including one i the Gulf.

Uh oh.  What’s that in the SW Gulf?  Invest 90-L has a very high probability of becoming a Tropical Cyclone as it meanders around the SW Gulf.  Should we be worried about it?

The models just don’t know what to do with Invest 90-L.  We’ll watch it closely.  Next name is Wilfred.  (Last name on the list)

Sally Continues to Bring Life Threatening Flooding to Alabama

4:00PM UPDATE:

Latest position on SALLY,  a 60 mph Tropical Storm located, in south Alabama, 55 miles NE of Pensacola or 85 miles west of Dothan. Moving NE at 7 mph.

2:30 UPDATE:

Wind Advisory for Autauga, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Hale, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Marengo, Montgomery, Perry, Pike, Russell, Tallapoosa [AL] till Sep 17, 7:00 AM.

NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO AUBURN. LOWER WIND SPEEDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO AUBURN.

Elsewhere… Doppler Radar now estimates that parts of Covington county have now received more than 17″ of rain.  Many roads are closed.  Flash Flood Warnings continue for practically every county in south Alabama.

2:00PM UPDATE:

EMA and law enforcement officials report multiple flooded roads and many down trees blocking roads in Butler, Covington, Coffee and Geneva counties especially.  All city streets and roads in Andalusia and Opp are closed.  In fact many roads are closed until further notice, in numerous cities and towns in the counties above.   Alabama Power reports 160,000 customers are without power.  Many of those are in the coastal counties.

 1 pM UPDATE:  

Sally is now a Tropical Storm with 70 mph winds, located 30 miles NNE of Pensacola, moving NNE at 5 mph.  Pressure 982 milibars. The storms will weaken to a depression tomorrow as it picks up forward speed.  Sally will be in Alabama for the rest of the day and tonight. dropping prolific rainfall amounts.

Prolific amounts of rainfall are being dumped on the state of Alabama from Sally, and the rain will be relentless for the rest of today, and through tonight and into tomorrow.  Numerous counties are under Flash Flood Watches and Warnings.

Take at the swath of heavy rain to come!

SPC has now further trimmed the risk area for spin up tornadoes. Now primarily confined to SE Alabama this afternoon and into this evening

 

10 AM NHC UPDATE: Sally is 15 miles WNW of Pensacola, moving NNE at 5 mph. Winds now 80 mph. Came ashore at 5AM near Gulf Shores. It’s moved about 30 miles in 5 hours. At 7PM tonight it will have only made it to Andalusia, AL. Prolific life threatening flooding rain continues #alwx

9:00AM UPDATE:  

Hurricane Sally which came ashore at 5AM this morning with 105 mph , has now almost reached the AL/FL border 20 miles west of Pensacola, moving NNE at 4 mph.  Winds are now down to 85 mph.  We have heard reports of over 30″ of rain already just northwest of Pensacola.  Lots of damage and flooding reported in Mobile, Gulf Shores and especially Orange Beach.  Here in Alabama, just about every county in south Alabama is under a Flash Flood Warnings and they continue expanding northward.

The extremely heavy rains will continue.  The flooding threat is particularly high.

Some pictures …from Orange Beach.  Here’s Sportsman’s Marina:

Another from Orange Beach

Here’s the pier at the state park in Gulf Shores

EARLY MORNING UPDATE: 

Early this morning, Sally’s Eyewall is already battering coastal Alabama and Florida with hurricane force winds.  Winds in Sally dramatically increased during the night to 105 mph at 4AM.  But, it’s the extremely slow movement of Sally, which will cause historic, life-threatening flooding to parts of especially south Alabama today.  The Weather Service is using the word “Catastrophic”.  Plus, the threat of spin up tornadoes.  But, hang on, after Sally the weekend looks spectacular.  Lots of good information on today’s video.

Look at the times on this map.  BY 1AM tomorrow morning, the center of Sally will still be in south Alabama.  Notice the track and the cone has shifted east again.

FLOODING rainfall amounts are likely today.  There will be many flash flood warnings.

A few spin up tornadoes are a good bet today especially in south Alabama.

We could see some wind gusts close to tropical storm force later today.

Han g on.  After Sally a nice cool front delivers some spectacular air for the weekend.