Good Morning! The storm system that has brought rain and storms to the state will exit the area later this morning. There will improvement later in the day and we should be mostly clear tonight. Tuesday and Wednesday will be very nice with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70’s. The next risk of showers and storms arrives Thursday. Another more important system will arrive this weekend. There is a risk of Severe Weather by Saturday and particularly Saturday night. Here’s my brief forecast discussion.
TODAY: Risk of rain through mid-morning. Mostly cloudy. Improvement later in the afternoon. Northwest wind 6 to 12 mph. Mainly clear tonight. Low 41.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Tuesday and Wednesday will be very nice with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70’s. The next risk of showers and storms arrives Thursday. Highs will tease 80 by the end of week.
Another more important system will arrive this weekend. There is a risk of Severe Weather by Saturday and particularly Saturday night.
Here’s the 10 day model blend temperature trend. Looks pretty warm much of the time.
WEEKEND Significant SEVERE Weather RISK: BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH! It didn’t take long for forecast trends to already start ramping up for the Saturday through Sunday morning timeframe, with a large 30% area (level 3 of 5) chance of severe storms now in the forecast for much of the forecast area. Upper level dynamics appear very favorable for severe storm formation, however there are subtle uncertainties among global guidance. We still have a long way to go to work out the specific details, but confidence is increasing of a significant threat of severe storms materializing during the day on Saturday and lasting through Sunday morning.
Plenty of energy with this system. Check out the 500 MBS winds Friday night. Looks like a very dynamic weather system.
The potential rainfall over the next 7 days looks significant across the Gulf states.
Thanks for reading this blog update. This morning everything is normal. We’ll be LIVE on NewsTalk 93.1. There will be another Blog Update and Forecast Video discussion in the 4’o’clock hour tomorrow morning. Have a good day.
–Rich