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Storm System Approaches – Wet & Active Pattern Ahead – Severe Weather Threat

  Good Morning! Our extended string of storm-free days is ending. We are about to get into a west and active pattern for a few days. A series of storm systems will bring in rounds of showers & storms through the area from late tonight through Saturday. Some storms will be strong, possibly severe early tomorrow and Friday, and perhaps Saturday. Rainfall amounts could be excessive. I’ll walk you through the details through the weekend for here and the Gulf Coast Beaches.

Enjoy another tranquil day. Big weather changes area ahead. Today will be warm and dry. Risk of thunderstorms by late tonight.

Strong to severe storms enter the state late tonight. Marginal Severe Risk from SPC through 7AM Thursday on the Day one outlook and Marginal Severe Risk area wide Thursday. Damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

Here’s one Hi-res model showing the storms moving into central Alabama before Dawn tomorrow morning. Some other models are a little slower.

After today…a very west and active weather pattern through Saturday.

Another concerning system approaches Saturday. Could this system have a severe weather potential? Quite possibly.

Right now the Storm Prediction Center says the greatest risk of Severe Storms and possible tornadoes will be east of I-65 and generally south of the I-85/U.S 80 corridor. This certainly could be adjusted as we get closer to Saturday.

Rainfall amounts through Saturday could be excessive in spots. Flooding could be an issue.

Warming Trend Continues – Very Wet Late Week – Strong to Severe Storms Possible

  Good Morning!  Our extended storm-free days continue today. Yesterday’s high was 78, today we should be 80 or above.  On this video, we’ll look ahead to weather changes. Showers and storms will overspread the area Wednesday night and Thursday.  Once again, the Storm Prediction Center says some of the storms could be severe.  The wet pattern continues Friday & Saturday, and total rainfall amounts this week could be rather significant.

This great pattern continues today. More sun. A little warmer. Great Day.

An approaching front will bring a risk of strong to severe storms across the area Wednesday night & Thursday. It’s the start of a very wet and active pattern which will stick around through Saturday.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state in a Marginal Severe Weather Risk, Wednesday night through 7AM Thursday morning. All of the area is in a Marginal Risk Thursday. Damaging wind gusts are the main risks. A tornado or two can not be ruled out.

Wednesday daytime should be dry and warm. An approaching front will bring a risk of strong to severe storms across the area Wednesday night & Thursday. It’s the start of a very wet and active pattern which will stick around through Saturday. The Sunday forecast is subject to review, based on timing.

As you can see from the map below, rainfall amounts could be rather excessive Wednesday night through Saturday.

Warming Trend Underway – Late Week Storm System – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  After a nearly perfect Easter Sunday, we are starting this week in a beautiful way.  The storm-free pattern will continue for at least a couple of more days.  A major warming trend is underway.  By Wednesday night into Thursday, a storm system in the Midwest will bring showers and storms back to the state.  Severe Weather is not out of the question on Thursday. Too early to say.  I’ll walk you through the details of the week ahead and show you how much rain could fall.

GREAT way to start the week today. High pressure is in control. Sunny. Warming trend continues.

An upper low in the Midwest will be the main player this week. Marginal Severe weather threat edges into west Alabama by Wednesday night through 7AM Thursday.

Formidable storm system on Thursday. Too early to say if there will be a severe weather threat.

WET period Wednesday night into at least Saturday.

NO cool air in our ten day future.’

NOT a good week for Pollen problem.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Perfect Easter – Warming Trend This Week

Happy Easter!  On this Easter morning, we’ll be in the 30’s, one more time at Dawn.  But, the late Season Cold Snap is fading.  There will be some nice warming today. The normal high is 74.  We’ll be close to normal this afternoon. 

    A nice Warming Trend is in the cards this week.  Monday & Tuesday will be picture-postcard perfect.  Risk of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms return by Wednesday, more likely Wednesday night and Thursday.

TODAY:  Last Easter was turbulent, with dozens of tornadoes. Today will be nearly perfect.  Sunshine will dominate.  High 74.  Clear skies tonight.  Not quite as chilly.  Low 44.  West wind 5 to 9 mph. 

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Great start to the new week!  Monday and Tuesday will be beautiful, as the warming trend continues.  Small risk of showers/storms Wednesday.  Better chance Wednesday night & Thursday.  The Friday and Saturday outlook is a little fuzzy.  We’ll hang on to a small rain chance, subject to change. 

NEXT STORM SYSTEM:  A formidable storm system in the Midwest will begin to effect the state by Wednesday Night and into Thursday.  The parent Low will be far away in Iowa.  It appears the best dynamics for severe weather will be to the west and northwest of Alabama.  Although the severe risk appears small in  Alabama for Wednesday night and Thursday, it is still possible that a small risk will be introduced in the coming days.  We’ll see.  Stay tuned.

Wednesday, SPC has indicated a severe risk just west and northwest of us. 

TORNADOES LAST EASTER:  Last Easter (April 12, 2020) was a BIG tornado day.  A historic 159 tornadoes touched down across 6 southern states. 

Here’s in Alabama there were 29 tornadoes statewide.  So, nice that we’ll have such a tranquil Easter this year. 

POLLEN:  No relief for everybody with allergies.  The pollen forecast for the next few days is not very good. High today.  Medium to high next few days. 

Tornadoes last Easter… This Easter picture postcard perfect!

I’ll have a complete video update tomorrow morning.  Enjoy this beautiful Easter Weather!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE: Cold-snap Will Moderate – Perfect Easter – Warming Trend Next Week

Good Morning!  Could we be close to a record this morning, around Dawn?  It sure is possible.  The Montgomery record is 33 (from 1987 and 1993).  We’ll be in the neighborhood, as our late season cool-snap continues. Today will still be way below normal, but not quite as cool as yesterday and certainly not nearly as breezy.

    Easter Sunday looks picture-postcard PERFECT.  Nice warming trend Monday and Tuesday.  Risk of showers and storms returns Wednesday and Thursday.  Any severe weather this week?  Scroll down. 

TODAY:  Near record-low at Dawn.  Risk of frost.  Perhaps a freeze.  Total sunshine today.  High 67.  East wind 6 to 11.  Clear and cold tonight.  Low 38.

EASTER SUNDAY:  Just about perfect.  After the morning chill wears off…nice afternoon warming.  High 74.  (that’s the normal high) East wind at 4 to 8 mph.  Last Easter there were 29 tornadoes in the state, and 159 tornadoes across the south.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Easter Sunday looks nearly perfect.  Chilly start.  Nice Day. Warming trend Monday and Tuesday.  Risk of showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday afternoon.  Better chance Wednesday night and Thursday.  (see below on severe weather potential)

SEVERE THREAT NEXT WEEK?:  Details are not clear on the storm system that will effect the state by Wednesday night/Thursday.  Could there be a severe weather potential?   Maybe.  But confidence in the forecast is very low this far out.  Stay tuned. 

MARCH TORNADO COUNT:  So far April has been tranquil.  Meanwhile, the March tornado count has increased yet again.  There were 3 more tornadoes surveyed in the state from that Wednesday storm system (March 31st.)   There were 25 tornadoes on March 17th, and 11 more tornadoes on March 25th.  That brings the March Alabama tornado total to 39.  The number of STRONG tornadoes (EF-2 or higher) is a staggering ten.   (Including 4 EF-3’s!)    An awful tornado month. 

POLLEN: The pollen count will be in the medium to high range for the next few days.

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There will be another blog update in the morning.  Have a nice Easter weekend!

–Rich