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SATURDAY UPDATE:  Hurricane Warning Along Florida Coast – Front Brings Risk of Showers

Good morning!  Welcome to August. While our weather is fairly routine this weekend, Florida is preparing for an encounter with Hurricane Isaias.  Tropical storm conditions will begin by later today along part of the Florida coast.  In the week ahead, Isaias will rake the U.S. East coast with tropical storm conditions.  Complete details of Isaias below.

Here in Alabama, a weak front will enter the state this afternoon. It will bring some spotty showers & storms to the state.  The front will fizzle by tomorrow.  Showers and storms will very isolated starting tomorrow.


TODAY:   Mostly sunny.  Hot again.  High 93, Heat Index near 100.  Spotty PM showers or thundershowers.  Low tonight 72.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The indirect effect of Isaias will be to limit the moisture in Alabama.  Showers will be isolated in nature Sunday through Tuesday.  Then, back to scattered storms Wednesday and Thursday.

BEACH FORECAST:  Yellow flags are out for a Moderate Rip Current Risk today.  Low rip current risk Sunday and Monday.  Today should be mostly sunny & dry.  Isolated showers possible Sunday and Monday.

HURRICANE ISAIAS:  Category 1 Hurricane Isaias is raking the central and NW Bahamas this morning, heading for an encounter with the Florida coast.

At 4AM CDT, the center of Isaias was located 80 miles SE of Nassau, Bahamas, moving NW at 12.  Winds now 85 mph. Further strengthening is possible, but rapid intensification is not expected.

Here’s a close up on the Florida portion of the NHC cone.  A Hurricane Warning now extends from Boca Raton to north of Daytona Beach, to the Flagler county line.  Tropical storm watch along the northeast Florida coast.  The track remains about the same, however any westward shift of the track could put more areas under potential hurricane conditions.

Over the next few days..Monday through Wednesday, Isaias will rake the US East Coast with tropical storm conditions, heavy rain and rough surf.


ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:  Isaias is not the only show in the tropics. In the Tropical Atlantic there is an area to watch, with a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days.   In the far eastern Atlantic, near the Azores, Tropical Depression Ten should have a relatively short life. It will become a ‘remnant low’ later today.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Stay safe and well.


Updated Weekend Forecast – Hurricane Isaias Update – Potential SE US Impacts – FRIDAY Video

Happy last day of July!  Our forecast, for the first weekend in August, actually looks fairly routine compared to the drama in the tropics. I have updated the detail for here and the Gulf Coast.   ISIAIS became a hurricane overnight and is heading for the Bahamas.  It will make a close encounter with Florida this weekend and possibly make landfall in the Carolinas.  And, Isaias is not the only thing we are watching in the tropics.


ISAIAS will become a 100 mph Cat 2 Hurricane in the Bahamas and then make a close approach to Florida over the weekend, and possibly landfall in the Carolinas by Monday night.


Fairly routine weekend Beach Forecast

Isaias is not the only thing in the tropics.  It’s getting busy.

Scattered Weekend Storms – Where is Tropical Storm Isaias Headed? – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  After widespread showers & storms Wednesday, gradually, the number of storms will start to thin out in number over the next few days, as July comes to an end and August ends.  I have updated the rain weekend rain chance for here and the Gulf Coast Beaches.  Meanwhile, all eyes on Tropical Storm Isaias.  Where is it headed?   How will affect the Southeastern United states.  I have the latest on timing and the new cone from the National Hurricane Center.


More scattered showers & storms today, but not nearly as many as yesterday.

Showers and storms start to thin out in number today..  Not nearly as widespread as yesterday.

Routine first weekend in August.  Tropical Storm Isaias should not have any effect on our weather.

As we continue to watch the tropics, it now appears unlikely that Tropical Storm Isiais will have any impact on the beaches from Gulf Shores to Panama City.

NHC continues to ease the cone on ISAIAS a little farther to the east.  More on the Atlantic side of Florida and not the Gulf side.  It will make a close approach to the state Saturday and Sunday, as a strong tropical storm, perhaps a little below the threshold for a Cat. 1 hurricane.

Some of the models are still LEFT in the Gulf, but most model tracks, thankfully, are shifting RIGHT.

More Scattered to Numerous Storms – Tracking The Tropics – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Once again today, all signs point to another active day with scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Storms will be slow movers.  There will be some locally heavy downpours.  But, there are signs that we will be returning to a more routine pattern by the weekend.  Storms will thin out in number and become more widely separated.  I have updated the rain chance for here and the Gulf Coast through the weekend.  That tropical system approaching the Windward Islands, which will eventually get the name ISIAIS. There’s more and more evidence this system will impact the Southeastern United States.  I have the latest forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center.


Once again today…showers and storms will be scattered to numerous.  There will be locally heavy downpours in spots.

Here’s one models idea of the storm coverage late this afternoon.

The trend will be for the number of storms to start to thin out in number over the next few days.  By the weekend, we should be back to a rather “routine” summer forecast.  Widely scattered storms.

The weekend Beach Forecast looks routine.  We will be keeping an eye on that Tropical System which will effect Florida.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely become a tropical storm, officially today.

The new Cone of Uncertainty covers Florida and almost touches SE Alabama.  It could be a 65 mph tropical storm late Saturday night, affecting south Florida.  Then what?

No doubt about it.  Most of the models suggest Florida will affected by a Tropical Storm this weekend. Then, perhaps, this system could skirt the southeastern US Coast.

Scattered to Numerous Showers & Storms – Watching the Tropics – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  The atmosphere is primed for action today. Showers and storms should become scattered to numerous today and tomorrow.  Some towns could see some locally heavy downpours. On this video, I’ll show you Future Radar.  But, by late week and into the weekend, the number of storms will start to thin out again, closer to a summertime normal.  I have updated the rain chances through Sunday.  Meanwhile, in the tropics, all eyes on Invest 92-L.  There is a strong chance this system will become a Tropical Storm in the next 24-48 hours.  Could it have a future impact for the United States?  Some models indicate it might.

Plenty of atmospheric moisture, combined with an upper level disturbance will set the stage for scattered to numerous showers & storms today.

Radar will be active this afternoon.  Locally heavy downpours.

Widespread showers and storms Wednesday.  The number of storms will start to thin out in number by late week and into the weekend.  Routine summer forecast this weekend.

Invest 92-L has not organized enough into a definable center, yet.

But, there is a 90% chance this system will become a Depression or Tropical Storm in the next 24-48 hours.

Today the spaghetti models have shifted left.  This happens to be the GFS Ensemble members.  It certainly suggests there could be an impact to the United States by late in the weekend or early next week.