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Thunderstorm Season – Active Pattern Through the Weekend – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Welcome to July. Heat and humidity will set the stage for thunderstorms.  There will be a generous supply of storms each day from today, through the 4th of July Holiday weekend and beyond, for here, the Lakes and the Gulf Coast Beaches.  Clusters of storms will be rather strong at times, with gusty winds, lots of lightning and tropical downpours.  There will be a few warnings at times.  On this video, I have adjusted the daily rain chance through Tuesday.  I have an update on the tropics, too.

 

Heat and humidity will lead to widespread showers and storms.

Clusters of storms will move from the northwest to the southeast today.

An upper level  trough of low pressure, combined with deep tropical moisture will lead to numerous storms, day after day, for several days.

Thunderstorms will be rather numerous each day through the weekend into early next week.

Be flexible.  It will be stormy at times at the beach through the holiday weekend.  Have a plan B.  Watch out for lightning.

This is only AVERAGE rainfall for the next 6 days.  Actual rainfall totals will vary widely.  It looks very wet at times for several days.

The EURO model suggests a tropical depression could form near the coast and head northeast.  The GFS model also suggests tropical development.

 

 

Heat, Humidity, More PM Storms – Storms Increase Late Week – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  On this last day of June, expect another nearly intolerable hot & humid day with triple digit heat indices.  Yesterday we had a high of 94 with a heat index of 104.  There’s no reason to believe we won’t be in the same neighborhood today.  We’re getting into a very unsettled pattern.  Thunderstorms will become much more numerous over the next several days.  Unfortunately, the stormy pattern, with better than normal rain chances will be with us through the 4th of July holiday weekend.  I have “tweaked” the rainfall probabilities through Monday.  I’ll show you how much rain could fall, and we’ll check the tropics.

Moist, unstable atmosphere with dewpoints in the mid 70’s…added with intense heat will lead to big storms..  Feast or famine.

Radar should be much more active today than yesterday.

 

Unfortunately, Beach goers will have to dodge some storms and downpours through the holiday weekend.  Total rainfall in spots could total 3-5″.

 

In the TROPICS, NHC is monitoring an “area to watch” off the North Carolina coast.   Another wave coming off Africa needs to be watched, too, over the next few days.

More Scattered Storms Today – Triple Digit Heat Index – Active Weather Week Ahead – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  Heat and humidity with more scattered storms, sums up today’s forecast.  Yesterday we got to 102 on the Heat Index.  We’ll be in that neighborhood again today.  The big story for the week ahead will be another significant increase in the daily rain chance, especially Wednesday through the Fourth of July weekend.  We are headed into an unsettled period of days with frequent tropical downpours.  I have updated the daily rain chances through next Monday.  I have updated Beach Forecast for the week.  And, we’ll tropics and update the dust plume.

More triple digit heat indices today. Random Scattered PM storms.

Spotty storms will cool down a few lucky communities today.

a “Weakness” will develop in the upper atmosphere, which will keep us rather unsettled for several days, especially from Mid week and through the Holiday weekend.  Tropical Downpours at times.

Daily Rain chances will be quite high through most of the week ahead.

Be flexible with your 4th of July Holiday weekend plans.  We’ll be dodging raindrops at times.

Rain chance at the beach will be routine today and tomorrow.  But there will be a dramatic increase in the number of storms Thursday and through the holiday weekend.

 

 

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:   Spotty Storms Today – Triple Digit Heat Index

Good morning!   Today will be rather routine for a summer day.  Some towns will get wet.  Many towns will not.  Monday will be very similar.   The big story today will be heat and humidity, as the heat index soars to 100 or higher.

It’s looking more and more like this week will be a lot like last week.  By mid to late week, showers and storms will be rather numerous each day.  This active pattern may even spill into at least part of the Fourth of July weekend.

Blame a weakness in the atmosphere which will migrate into Alabama from the northeast, for the increase in storms this week.

So, if your lawn needs to be cut, the days with the smallest rain chance will be today and tomorrow.  I would avoid the middle of the day, though, when the heat will be intense.  My grass is growing like crazy. 😊

TODAY:  We’ll be dealing with some cloudy intervals, but I think we’ll actually finally start to see some sunny intervals, too.  It will be a hot & humid day.  High near 93.  The heat index will reach 100 to 103.  Stay hydrated.  Spotty random cooling thundershowers will be around, but the will be widely scattered.  Many towns will get skipped.   Low tonight 73.

Here’s one model’s snapshot of late afternoon, just to give you some sense of the coverage on the storms.

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Monday will be routine. A 30% rain chance is a summertime normal.  But, notice how the rain chances start to dramatically increase, especially by mid to late week, and perhaps into the early part of the Fourth of July holiday weekend.  It’s a bit too early to determine if the whole holiday weekend will be unsettled.  I’ll let you know.

THE TROPICS:  It is amazingly quiet in the Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, for at least the next 5 days.

UPDATE:   

 A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
Cape Verde Islands is moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next 2 
to 3 days.  After that time, environmental conditions become less 
conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Meanwhile, at least for now, the Saharan Dust plume has dispersed, over us and has migrated to the Southeast U.S. Coast.

Sunset over Lake Jordan last night, enhanced by Saharan Dust. Beautiful. Thanks to our friend Lisa, for the picture.

I’ll have a complete video update for you tomorrow morning, posted by 4:45AM.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday …

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:   Scattered Storms Today – A Few Strong Storms?

Good morning!  Sunshine will be limited again today, due to clouds, and to some extent the Saharan Dust.   An upper level disturbance, combined with deep tropical moisture will lead to scattered storms this afternoon.

Although the storms will thin out a but Sunday, get ready for another active thunderstorm week ahead, much like this last week.

TODAY:  Again today clouds will dominate.  Sunshine will be limited.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, especially by afternoon and into this evening.  Some Storms could be strong possibly severe with damaging wind gusts possible.  High today 90.  Low tonight 72.

Here’s one model’s idea of what the radar coverage could look like by about 6PM.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area in a Marginal Severe Weather risk.  Again, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph is possible in a couple of the storms.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Storms will be few and far between Sunday.  But showers and storms will increase in number again the week ahead.  Showers and storms will be widespread Tuesday through Thursday.

THE TROPICS:  There’s nothing in the tropics right now.  Looks like the next few days will be quiet.

Meanwhile, the Saharan Dust layer remains across Alabama and the Gulf south today.  It will begin to disperse tomorrow and Monday.

I’ll have a complete video update for you tomorrow morning.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday …

–Rich