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Latest Forecast

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Parade of Storm Systems – Very Wet & Active Week

The forecast for the next 7 days is complicated.  I could get overly “wordy” on the fine details, but I won’t.  I’ll condense.

A series of storm systems will swing through the Gulf States, one after another.  The first one is today.  We get a nice break tomorrow in between storm systems.  Tuesday through the end of the week look very wet, indeed.  The “caboose” of this weather pattern will come next weekend, with a storm system that could produce severe storms.  As you will see, parts of north Alabama are expected to receive serious rainfall totals which could cause flooding, as a frontal system stalls across that part of the state.

TODAY:  We’ll in the warm air south of a warm front.  Cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Can’t rule out some ruble of thunder.  Breezy.  High upper 70’s  Showers and thunderstorms become more likely tonight.  Overnight low 52.

Here’s a few Future Radar snapshots showing the spotty nature of the showers across south Alabama with more concentrated rain to the north.  The better rain chances shift southward tonight.

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Monday (President’s Day) is the “pick of the litter” as the best weather day this week.  It’ll be partly sunny with highs in the 60’s.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL:  What sticks out on this map below is the excessive 7-10” potential rainfall totals across North Alabama, particularly Wednesday through Friday.  The amounts drop off quickly as you move south.  We could easily see 2-3” totals even as far south as I-85.  South Alabama will see lighter amounts.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK?:  I’ll be brief.  There are a few windows of opportunities Wednesday through Friday, when the Storm Prediction Center could introduce Marginal Severe Weather threats for parts of the state.  The weather system that concerns me the most arrives this weekend.  It appears many of the necessary severe weather ingredients will be available.  We’ll watch this unfold as the week goes on.

SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK:  Today is the first day of Severe Weather Awareness Week in Alabama.  Now is the time to meet with your family and come up with a plan of action.  Know where your county is located on the map.

Identify your Home’s safe spot.  Typically it’s a small enclosed room or substantial hallway on the lowest level, far away from windows.  Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.  Have at least two reliable methods of getting a warning, like a weather app on your phone and a weather radio that can wake you up in the middle of the night.   Review safety plans.  I have a link to the National Weather Service Awareness plan below.

https://www.weather.gov/bmx/outreach_feb2019

PRATTVILLE TORNADO 2008:  it was a miracle, on this day 11 years ago.  Like today, it was a Sunday, 3PM, when an EF-3 tornado tore through Prattville causing extensive damage in many neighborhoods.  Fortunately, nobody died.  Truly a miracle.

I’ll have a complete video update Monday morning at 4:45AM.  Have a great Sunday!

 

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  UP AND DOWN RAIN CHANCES – RISK OF RAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS

It’s not going to rain all the time, but there are several wet days in our future, through all of next week.  Today for instance, there will be many dry hours. Sunday will be a wetter day, with showers & thundershowers.  Monday, President’s Day will be the best of the next 7 days.  There may even be a little sun.  But, rain is not only likely Tuesday through Thursday, the rainfall could be locally heavy.  Parts of Alabama could see excessive rainfall totals.  Details below.

TODAY:  The greatest risk of spotty showers will be mostly this morning, for most of us, as a weak front drifts south toward the coast.  It will be mostly cloudy with a few “sun-breaks”,  and mild.  The average high for today will be very close to 70.  It will be mild tonight, low 58.

SUNDAY & MONDAY:  The front near the coast returns northward, as a warm front on Sunday, and it will act as the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High in the mid 70’s. Rain chances will generally average 40% daytime but rise  to 80% Sunday night.  Monday is the BEST day.  Chance of showers early, but then gradually some sunshine will take over.  High in the mid 60’s.  Enjoy Monday because we have some wet times ahead.   Here’s the set-up for Sunday.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  The wettest days are likely to be Tuesday through the end of the week, as a series of storm systems move along a stalled front, somewhere in west Alabama.  The exact position of that front will have a lot to say about who gets the heaviest rainfall.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL: The numbers on the map below are a little more conservative than earlier forecasts, but still, some potentially serious rainfall totals are possible, especially from west central through north Alabama in the week ahead. This will cause river and creek levels to swell, and flooding in low lying areas is possible.  Even here in central Alabama, there is a  potential of 2-4”in the I-85 corridor, rising quickly to 3-5” north of I-85.  Obviously, these numbers are subject to revision.

Here’s a manual forecast from NWS Birmingham, which shows some more conservative numbers here in central Alabama.

Here’s a wider shot.  Much of the South will be drenched by excessive rainfall in the next 7 days.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT?:  The jury is out on the severe weather potential, because the details are “muddy” and the models don’t agree.  However, based on what we know, I think the better odds for strong to severe storms is likely to be Wednesday afternoon.  Stay tuned for more over the next few days, as the situation becomes clearer.

 

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I’ll have another blog update on Sunday morning, early.   Have a nice weekend!

-Rich

Parade of Storm Systems – Friday Video

Get ready.  We are getting into a very active weather pattern. A string of storm systems are lined up between here and the west coast and beyond.  It won’t rain all the time, but it will be wet at times for the next several days.  Total rainfall across the south over the next several days could be excessive.  On this video, I’ll walk you through the “up and down” rain chances through the weekend and into next week.

 

That front to the north of us will be like a train track over the next few days, as waves of low pressure move along the front, one after another, after another.   Mild today and tonight.

Future Radar shows how the rain chances ramp up overnight tonight and into the morning hours Saturday.

 

It’s not going to rain all the time, but the chance of rain is in the forecast every day…for the next several days.  Notice how the rain chances seem to get a little better every day Sunday through Wednesday.

 

The biggest message of the next 7 days is the potential for prolific rainfall amounts across the south from Louisiana to the Carolina’s.  This could become a serious situation, particularly across the Tennessee valley.

This is a conservative “model blend” rainfall potential forecast for the next several days.  Potentially crazy amounts, especially in north Alabama and north Georgia.

The GFS model is even more excessive with the potential rainfall totals.  Lets hope its wrong.

Wet Pattern Returning – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  We have a nice day to look forward to, but get ready for a change.   We are headed into a very active weather pattern for the next several days, as a parade of storm systems march across the Deep South through the next 7-10 days. Rain chances will escalate each day.  Rainfall could be excessive in parts of our state.  I’ll walk you through the details and I’ll show you how much rain we can expect.

 

Nice Valentine’s Day, today, but get ready for an active pattern ahead, as a parade of storm systems move across the region next few days.

Showers will be very isolated Friday, but look for an escalating rain chance each day. starting this weekend and in through the middle of next week at least.  Temperatures will be mild for February, but a little cooler Monday and Tuesday.

The next storm system, which could have the best potential for strong to severe storms in the next week will arrive around mid-week.  Here’s the set-up next Wednesday.  Too early to sero in on the threat, but it looks like some of the ingredients will be present.

 

Rainfall totals across the south will be excessive in the next 7+ days.  Perhaps 5-6″+ across parts of north Alabama and north Georgia.

 

Brief Pause From Active Pattern – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  We have a couple of quiet days in our otherwise very active pattern.  We’ll be dealing with a series of storm systems over next 7 to 10 days.  The weekend forecast has undergone significant revisions.  I’ll bring you up to date on the fast time line and the updated rain chance.  Which storm system has the potential for strong to severe storms?  Plus, we continue to scan the distant horizon for more arctic air.  Will we see any and when?

Nice break between storm systems today!   Lots of sun.  High near 60 after a chilly start.

Nice Thursday… But, then, a very active pattern for several days, as a series of fronts and disturbances affect the area.   Looks like the next chance of strong/severe storms could hold off until sometime in the next Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, about a week out.

Active weather pattern could produce significant rainfall totals over the next 7 days, particularly across the Tennessee Valley.

The BEST news…the extreme arctic flood gates appear to be closed for the next 10-12 days.