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Few and Far Between – Showers Become Scarce – MONDAY Video

Good morning!  Some of you had extremely heavy rain over the weekend.  Other towns had hardly any.  Today, with a big mound of high pressure building on top of us, showers should be rather scarce.  That trend may not last for long.  On this video, I’ll show the trends for the next week or so. Rain chances will vary quite a bit from day to day.  Plus, we’ll take a look out in the tropics, on your Monday morning personal weather briefing.

Storms ‘thin out’ today as high pressure builds on top of us in the upper atmosphere.

 

The trend to fewer storms does not last long.  Tropical moisture migrates back into the area as rain chances increase again by mid to late week.

Global models show another heat bubble builds over us by early next week. Here’s a look at the raw temperature guidance.

NHC has a low chance of tropical development in the west Gulf but torrential rainfall will drench much of coastal Texas.

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:  More Storms Today – Fewer Storms This Week

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.  Hopefully, today’s grilling duties will be passed on to somebody else.  But, we may dodging raindrops again.  In fact, our better than normal chance of storms continues for one more day, today.  I know – you keep hearing that storms will start to “thin out”.  I still think there will be fewer storms in the week ahead, starting tomorrow, as a bubble of high pressure builds, and replaces that low which has haunted us for days.  Yesterday was feast or famine.  Some of you had more than an inch.  The Montgomery airport had 0.00”.  A few of of you have had up to 5” in 7 days.  At my house I’ve had .81” in a week.  Feast or famine, indeed.

TODAY:  Showers & storms will become scattered to numerous today, particularly from lunchtime on, in through much of the evening.  High today near 90.  Low tonight 72.

FUTURE RADAR:   Once again today, radar will be quite active, and colorful.  Storms will be in rather generous supply.  But, again, they will be random.  Not every town will get one. Have a plan “B”.  You might have to move Dad’s festivities indoors at times.  Here are some Future Radar snapshots.

NEXT FEW DAYS – UPPER HIGH BUILDS:   For days I have been telling you about an upper high that will build over us, leading to fewer storms, more sun and hotter days.  I think that high will be most prominent from Monday through Wednesday.  Storms may increase again by the end of the week.

 

GULF DISTURBANCE AIMING FOR TEXAS:  There was quite a surge of convection in the Gulf yesterday with that “area to watch” (formerly Invest 91-L).  NHC still has a low 20% chance of development.  The Euro model is a little more generous with  a 30-40% chance of a depression forming in the SW Gulf as the system edges toward Texas.  The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

Good morning, again, from the Alabama Gulf coast!  Beautiful Saturday here yesterday from sunrise to sunset, and in between.

I’ll have another complete blog update Sunday morning around Dawn.  Have a nice Sunday!  Again, to all Dad’s, Happy Father’s Day!

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE: Active Storm Day Today – Storms Thin Out Soon

Soon there will be days when the number of storms will thin out.  Today is not that day.  Once again, the radar will be very active, as a south Alabama disturbance hangs tough.  That disturbance begins to fade by tomorrow, and a big bubble of high pressure will build, and our pattern will chance.  That will lead to fewer storms, more sun, and hotter temperatures.

TODAY:  Showers and storms will become rather numerous, again, particularly by the afternoon and evening. Still, though, not every town will get a storm.  You know the drill.  There will be more clouds than sun.  Highs will be held down to the upper 80’s by the amount of clouds and showers.  Lows tonight will be in the lower 70’s.

FUTURE RADAR:   Radar will be quite busy, and colorful, indeed.  If a picture is worth a thousand words, take a look at these future radar snapshots from later today.  Remember, we are only looking at storm coverage, not actual storm placement.

NEXT FEW DAYS – UPPER AIR CHANGES:   A stubborn area of low pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, located over south Alabama, will again be the culprit for storms today.  But, the upper Low will “fill” in the next 24-36 hours, as heights rise.  A Big area of upper level high pressure will build over the Gulf states.  High pressure is sinking air.  As the air sinks and expands, storms will be fewer in number, there will be more sunshine and hotter temperatures, particularly Monday through Wednesday and much of next week.

 

STILL WATCHING THE GULF:  The disturbance formerly known as Invest 91-L, is just a cluster of thunderstorms over the Yucatan and the SW Gulf.  The National Hurricane Center only gives this area a 10% chance of development.  Looks like moisture from this system is destined for Texas.  The rest of the tropical Atlantic basin is quiet.

Good morning from the Alabama Gulf coast!  Here’s a picture across the Back Bay looking towards the lights of Orange Beach.

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Could be an active storm day here today, but as my Dad once said, “It never rains in the restaurant.”

I’ll have another complete blog update Sunday morning around Dawn.  Have a nice weekend!

-Rich

Numerous Storms Today, But, Trend to Fewer Storms, More Sunshine – Friday Video

Happy Friday!  Once again today, the radar will active and colorful with scattered to numerous storms again, as a stubborn upper low persists.  But, on this video, I’ll tell you about a big change of pattern in the works, as a bubble of high pressure builds over Alabama and the SE US.  We’ll look ahead to a trend of fewer storms, more sunshine, and hotter days.  I have adjusted to rain chances for the weekend and beyond.  Plus, we’ll check on the tropics.  Anything to worry about out there?

 

That pesky upper low is still spinning around south Alabama, and that will lead to another day of scattered to numerous storms.  Radar will be quite active again.

A major pattern change is on the way.  A bubble of high pressure will build across the southeast states.  That will lead to feweer storms, more sun and hotter days. starting Sunday/Monday and through most of next week.

 

 

Active storm day at the beach today, but gradually over the next few days, the trend will be for fewer storms.

 

 

Pattern Change Ahead – Weekend Forecast Updated –Thursday Video

Good Morning!  We have another busy thunderstorm day ahead.  We may, in fact see a couple rounds of storms.  But, the news on this video is about a much anticipated pattern change, as storms thin out in number, and abundant sunshine returns.  When does that start?   How long does it last?  I have updated the weekend rain chances for here and the beaches.  Plus, the latest from the tropics as Invest 91-L heads for the Gulf of Mexico.  With your toast and coffee this morning, here’s your Friday morning weather briefing.

 

Busy, complicated Thunderstorm day today.  Better than normal chance.  Scattered to numerous storms.

BIG Pattern change in the upper atmosphere late weekend into next week, as a ridge of high pressure builds.   That means more sun, fewer storms and hotter temperatures ahead.

 

Fairly routine Weekend Beach Forecast.  Not too bad…

 

Invest 91-L, heading towards the Gulf, has a low 10% chance of tropical development according to NHC

Models take 91-L to Texas, then into the heartland.