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SUNDAY UPDATE:  Showers Will End – Windy & Colder

That big storm system will depart the state this morning, after producing drenching rainfall, and even flooding in parts of west Alabama.  There were some watches & warnings, but, fortunately, Alabama was spared widespread severe weather, unlike our neighbors to the west. The final tornado watch counties in SE Alabama have been cleared. Now, get ready for a windy cool-down, and another late season cool snap.

TODAY:   The risk of showers will be around for much of the morning, before the rain departs.  Winds will decrease behind a secondary front this afternoon.  West wind s will increase to 15-25 mph, but may gust above 30, between 1PM and 10PM.  Cool day today, with temperatures hovering in the low 60’s.  Cloudy/windy tonight, turning much colder, with clearing late.  Low 41 by morning.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Monday will be a very cool brisk day for so late in the season.  After a morning low of 41, the afternoon high will only climb to the low to mid 60’s.  Tuesday morning’s low near 40.  Then look for much warmer days Tuesday through Friday.  Except for a small chance of showers Wednesday night, we should stay storm-free until next weekend.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals from this extensive, slow moving storm system were particularly heavy across the western half of the state.  Doppler rainfall estimated of well over 5” cover a large part of west Alabama.  Flooding of some rivers and streams will have to be watched.  Farther east 1-2” of rain fell as far east as about the I-65 corridor.  Lighter amounts across the far east and SE counties.

 

 

Have a nice Sunday.  I’ll have you a complete video update online by 4:45AM.  We’ll take a close look at a week ahead.

Rich

Tornado Watch SW Alabama- Severe Weather Threat Diminishing For Some

Looks like a very wet and stormy night ahead for Alabama, with drenching rains, lots of lightning…  But, more and more it appears the threat for organized severe weather is fading across parts of central and SE Alabama.  Still, though, we could see some very impressive rainfall totals.  And, as the tornado watch expires across west and central Alabama…a new tornado watch is in effect across SW Alabama until 2AM, as far north as Dallas and Wilcox county.  However, for a lot of us the severe weather threat is greatly diminished.

Meanwhile, drenching rainfall totals will continue across Alabama tonight causing flooding in spots.

 

Much cooler air follows this storm system.

Tornado Watch for Much of West & Central Alabama- Adjusted Severe Weather Threat Today

Tornado Watch continues in effect for  much of western and part of central Alabama, as far east as Autauga, Lowndes and Dallas counties until 7PM.  Damaging winds up to 6o+ mph possible, with  a few tornadoes.

 

FUTURE RADAR:  The eastward progression of the line of strong/severe storms will take several hours.  Just to give you an idea of how long this severe weather window could last, here’s a Future Radar snapshot at 10PM tonight, and Midnight tonight as the line begins to weaken moving into eastern Alabama.

UPDATED THREAT MAP:

I like what NWS Birmingham has done on this updated graphic. The Enhanced Risk area has shrunk to a smaller area covering Clanton, Selma, just west of Montgomery, and a faster eastward timetable by about 2 hours..

 

For those of you from Crenshaw and Butler county southward to the coast, here’s the latest graphic from NWS in Mobile showing time line and threat level.

 

Here is the  video update I did before dawn this morning.

 

 

 

 

 

Some soaking rains are possible as this slow moving area of showers and thunderstorms crosses the state.

Drastically cooler air follows this storm system.  Very cool especially Monday and Tuesday morning.  Warming by mid week.

 

FRIDAY PM UPDATE: Latest Saturday Severe Risk Update

SEVERE RISK UPDATED (3:45PM 4/13/18)

GREAT Update from NWS Birmingham I want to share. I’ll have much more for you first thing in the morning)

After taking a look at the latest data coming in this afternoon, we’ve decided to increase our severe threat area to Enhanced for much of Central Alabama. In addition, we’ve refined the threat timing, trimming it down from 12PM Saturday in the west to 1AM Sunday morning in the east. That being said, MANY uncertainties remain in this forecast.

WHAT ARE THE UNCERTAINTIES?
1) Timing of the line of storms
2) How much instability will be available as the storms move through

The big question will be how far east this line will move by Saturday morning. Some forecast guidance is hinting at the line moving into northwest Alabama earlier in the day, which would limit severe potential for those locations. However, there is also a chance that line could also slow down, and allow more unstable air to push northward Saturday afternoon. That’s why we’ve gone ahead and upgraded much of the area to an Enhanced Risk, looking at that “worst-case” scenario of more unstable air being available.

COULD THIS FORECAST CHANGE?
Absolutely, in fact we’d like to recommend to everyone to check the latest forecast first thing in the morning to see exactly how this line of storms is evolving. We’ll be watching the evolution of the storms during the midnight shift tonight, and put out the latest forecast graphics likely by 5am Saturday morning.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE:
No matter which risk area you may be in on the map, you need to be prepared for severe weather. Have your plan in place in case you need to take shelter in the event a warning is issued!

 

Weekend Severe Weather Threat UPDATED – Friday Video

All eyes on that formidable storm system which will be affecting Alabama starting tomorrow.  Unfortunately, there are still many remaining questions on how the severe weather threat will unfold, including questions of timing and strength, with mush disagreement among the models…still.   I’ll do my best to sort it out for you on this video.  I’ll update how much rain could fall, and look at the new drought monitor map.  Are you ready for another drastic cool-down behind the storm system?  Here we go again.  Lots of good information on your Friday morning personal weather briefing.

 

The big storm system is out to the west of us today, but we are quiet, with a breezy warm day ahead.

Local NWS office in BHM highlights the ENHANCED risk area from Dempolis and Clanton and Alex City southward.  This where the greatest threat of tornadoes will exist.  As you see on the timelines, there is much uncertainty, thus the incredibly long severe weather windows.  It could, indeed, be a very long day and night in Alabama tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center likes the idea of the ENHANCED risk area centered on west Alabama, generally west of I-65.

 

After the storm system, once again, much cooler air funnels into Alabama with a couple of very cool days, and very chilly nights.

 

 

Some very beneficial rain is possible.