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Worst Possible News For Puerto Rico

WORST POSSIBLE NEWS FOR PUERTO RICO. (4:00PM 9/21/17). My heart breaks, as history is about to transpire in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. As if this hurricane season hasn’t been terrible enough, tonight and Wednesday, the center of Extremely Dangerous Maria is expected to move across St. Croix and Puerto Rico. NHC says: ” It now appears likely that Maria will
be at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico”. “Maria’s core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.”

This, I’m afraid is the worst possible case scenario for Puerto Rico. They have had not had a direct Category 5 hurricane strike since 1928. Please keep the people of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in your thoughts and prayers.
Winds in Maria have increased to 165 mph, moving WNW at 10, with an incredible central pressure of 916 Mbs.

I’m aboard an aircraft now returning from California. I’ll have a complete on the tropics and our weather in the morning.

All Eyes on Dangerous Maria – Tuesday Video

Although our weather is fairly routine through the end of the week and into the weekend, you may encounter a storm here and there.  In fact I have adjusted the rain chance.  BIG news concerns Extremely Dangerous Category 5 Maria with 160 mph winds, taking direct aim at the US Virgin Islands and perhaps a catastrophic hit in Puerto Rico.  What about the Southeast US.  Where will Maria’s track take her?  Sit back.  Here’s your Tuesday morning weather briefing from southern California, at the National Weather Association Conference.



Pretty routine next few days.  Hot & humid with scattered mainly afternoon & evening storms.  They will be random, and fade out after dark.  Highs at or above 90 next few days.  Lows at night near 70.

Extremely Dangerous Category 5 Maria  made a direct hit on some Leeward Islands overnight, following a rapid intensification cycle late yesterday.   Now, sadly the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may take a direct hit from Maria.  This is history.


Not Since 1932 has Puerto Rico taken a direct hit from a Cat 4, and not since 1928 has it taken a direct hit from a Cat 5.  This is potentially catastrophic

While many models curve Maria’s future path from the US, some models take it dangerously close.  The jury is out on Maria’s future US impact.  Stay tuned.

Besides Maria..long-endurance Jose will tease the northeast US coastline with winds and high surf.  Tropical Storm Warning.



I’m still here at the National Weather Association Conference in Southern California… But, I’ll return to Alabama late tonight.  I don’t think there will be a video tomorrow, but maybe.  There will be a blog update for sure, and everything is back to normal Thursday.


Hot & Humid Forecast – All Eyes on the Tropics – Monday Video

Storms will thin out in number today, but I’ll show you how our rain chances will pick up again later this week.  The big thing everybody is talking about is the tropics.  Jose is still around, and Maria could threaten Puerto Rico as a major category 4 storm.  Then, where does it go?   I’ll show you the latest on your Monday morning weather briefing from Southern California.

Today will be a hot and humid day with widely scattered storms in the afternoon in the evening.  High near 90 today and low near 70 tonight.  Rain chances about 20%.

Next few days will really feel like summer, even though we are in the very last few days of official sumer.  Storms will increase in number by about Wednesday & Thursday as a disturbance approaches.

In the tropics we have two hurricanes, Jose and Maria and what’s left of Lee, now a tropical depression.

Although Jose will stay off the US coast, it will cause a lot of wind and waves along the US east coast from the Carolinas to Cape Code.  Tropical Storm Watch in effect on the coast.,

Maria is a hurricane that could have a significant impact on a lot of land areas.  Hurricane warnings for the Leeward Islands including many areas that were impacted by Irma.  Maria could become a major Cat 3 or 4 hurricane and impact Puerto Rico in a big way.  Hurricane Watch in effect.  After that…Turks and Caicos.  But will Maria impact the US or stay off shore.  Most models suggest it will make the curve, but we don’t know.  ALL EYES ON MARIA.  Global spaghetti models below.

As you heard in the video, I’m here in southern California at the National Weather Association Conference.  I will try and get you a video again tomorrow morning.  Keep in mind I’m operating on Pacific time.  Tuesday late in travel time.  Probably NO Wednesday AM video, but back to normal on Thursday morning.  Have a great day!


Our Week Ahead – And, Three Names in the Tropics

Dense fog advisory expires at 9AM.  And, here we go again.  Humidity, heat and scattered storms are on today’s menu again.  Coverage will be roughly 40%.  It was feast or famine yesterday.  Many towns had nothing.  The Montgomery Airport had a trace.  Red Level had 2.77”  There were some severe thunderstorm warnings in spots.  Today won’t be quite as active.   Here’s Future Radar today.

WEEK AHEAD:  Drier air Monday & Tuesday, means more sun and storms will be hard to find.  And approaching disturbance will increase the risk of storms by Wednesday through Friday.  It will be HOT, with highs mostly in the lower 90s, in these last few days of official summer.

THE TROPICS ARE BUSY:  All of a sudden, Jose has siblings.  Lee and Maria were born in the tropical Atlantic yesterday.  One of the three could have implications for the southeastern United States as I hinted Friday & Saturday.

Briefly, Jose, who has already had a long life may tease the middle Atlantic or northeast coastline by the middle of this week.  It will be more of nuisance than anything else.  Gusty winds, heavy surf….kind of like a nor’easter in the winter.

We don’t care about Lee.  It will be an Atlantic “fish” storm before it fizzles.  The storm which could have implications for the US in the 7-10 day time frame is Maria.  Maria could become a major hurricane and be a significant threat to some of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as it continues northwestward toward the Bahamas and the SE US.   Maria worries me A LOT.  We will have to monitor it’s progress.  Who could affect?  Well, this many days out, like we learned with Irma, the models disagree widely.  But any place from the Gulf states, to Florida and all the way up the US east coast  are fair game for Maria.  OR, Maria may curve and miss the US altogether.  The point is, we don’t know.  Below, I have the latest Maria cone, and the spaghetti models.

The three key global model tracks concern me.  Here’s the GFS, the Euro and the Canadian.

Here’s the cone on Jose and Lee, too.

Greetings from Southern California where the ian day of the Broadcaster’s workshop is today.  We’ll be “in class” from about 8AM until 5:30PM, with a break for lunch.  I’m excited about the lineup of “Talks” today.  The purpose of this trip is to listen and learn.

Random Summer Storms are Back

There are about 5 days officially left in Summer.  You wouldn’t know that from our forecast.  It will be a very typical summer day.  Heat, humidity, scattered, random, PM storms will be around.  Like yesterday, some towns will get a heavy downpours, other towns will not.  We had a high of 93 yesterday.  Today I think we’ll be around 88-90.  Not much change in the next few days.  Some hot days are on the weather menu, despite the fact it’s September.  It’s going to be a hot day for football today in Auburn and Tuscaloosa, and we can’t rule out a heavy downpour perhaps.  Your odds of getting wet are about 50% or so.

Here’s Future Radar today.  It gives you a good sense of how random the storms will be.

THE TROPICS:  Jose is grabbing a lot of attention because it has gotten a little stronger, with winds back at 80 mph.  The track has shifted westward again.  The NHC cone now grazes part of the east coast, and later today and tropical storm watch could be required for parts of the coast from North Carolina northward.  Jose could have an encounter with the US coastline this week.

Meanwhile, the system I am most interest in, which could have a future impact on the Southeast United States is Invest 96-L, in the Tropical Atlantic.   Not so concerned about T.D. 14, because I think that system may fizzle in the far east Atlantic.

Invest 96-L’s future is more interesting.  All three global models, suggest that 96-L could become a hurricane and perhaps be close to the US coastline within about 8-10 days.  We’re watching.

ON THIS DATE:  None of us will ever remember what happened here in Alabama 13 years ago today when Hurricane Ivan roared ashore in Gulf Shores at 1:50AM.  It changed a lot of our lives.  Power was out for days for some of us, for weeks for others.  Remember Ivan’s crazy track?  It looped around and became a tropical storm and hurricane again and was given it’s original name back.  A unique moment in hurricane history.

Greetings from Southern California, and specifically Orange County.  It’s the annual National Weather Association’s Conference, where we catch up on the science and the developing technology.  Meteorologists from around the country are here, and not just broadcasters.  Today is more of a tourist day for me. Looks like Disneyland.  Work starts bright an early Sunday morning at 7:45AM for an all day session with broadcasters.   Have a great Saturday.  I’ll talk to you later…