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More Showers & Storms – Locally Strong – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Showers and thunderstorms will be in ample supply across Alabama today and tomorrow.  In fact, a few of the storms could be strong with damaging wind gusts possible.  This active thunderstorm pattern will hang around through Friday.  On this video, I’ll also look ahead to an improving weekend forecast. Thunderstorms will thin out in number.  I have updated the daily rain chance through the weekend for here and the Gulf coast beaches.  Could there be some hotter days by next week?

 

We are on the wet side of an upper Low near the ArkLaTex.  Looks like thunderstorms will be in ample supply.

MARGINAL Severe Risk today and tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat.

The better than normal  rain chances remain in the forecast through Friday.  Showers thin out Saturday.  Sunday and Monday are mainly dry.

The upper trough lifts out and the upper high pressure ridge expands eastward.  Alabama will start to dry out and heat up.

Good chance of storms Friday, down at the Beach.  Smaller chance Saturday.  Mainly dry Sunday.

NHC gives Invest 91-L only a 30% chance of developing before moving inland this evening and tonight.

Active Thunderstorm Week Ahead – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  The atmosphere is primed for action today and over the week ahead.  Look for a better than normal chance of those daily showers and storms.  Some days will have better chances than others.  I have updated the rain chance through the weekend.  Plus, another period of hotter temperatures may be just a few days away.  And, The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a new Area to Watch off the Southeast US coast.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms today.  Diminishing tonight.  Not as hot.

We’ll be on the WET side of an upper level low over the southern plains this week.

Better than normal rain chances will continue through the end of the week.  The showers will thin out over the weekend has temperatures get hotter.

The Upper Ridge will expand and get stronger.  The Heat will build & expand again next week.

NHC is monitoring an Area to Watch off the southeast us coastline:

Widespread showers and thunderstorms extending across Florida, the 
Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are 
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an 
upper-level disturbance.  Although a weak surface low could form 
along the surface trough just off the east coast of Florida and 
move northward toward Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and 
Wednesday, the low is not expected to become a tropical cyclone due 
to strong upper-level winds.

MEMORIAL DAY UPDATE:   More Random Storms – Unsettled at Times This Week

Good morning!  On this Memorial Day, expect a fairly typical summer day.  Like yesterday and the day before, highs will be 90 or above.  Some towns will get wet.  Other towns will not.  That’s the summertime normal.  Random storms.

It will be rather unsettled in the week ahead.  Rain chances, many days, will be above the 30% summertime normal.  Some storms will have a lot of intense lightning and gusty winds.

Why?  Here’s the set-up this week.  There is strong high pressure in the Atlantic, with it’s clockwise winds funneling moisture into the state.  Meanwhile, we are on the west side of an upper low over the ArkLaTex region.  Unsettled.

TODAY:  Much like yesterday.  Sun & clouds mix.  Hot & Humid.  High 91.  Random, scattered hot or miss storms, especially late afternoon and evening.  Here’s a future radar snapshot at 4PM showing the general coverage of the storms.  The radar will not look like this.  This is a model idea on coverage.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Unsettled at times in the week ahead.  Tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler due to somewhat cooler air moving in from the northeast.  The better than normal rain chances will be around for most of the week and into the weekend.  Best chance appears to be Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

BEACH OUTLOOK:   Rip current risk is HIGH today and Moderate tomorrow.  Please be careful!  Scattered thunderstorms could interrupt your plans from time to time. Be flexible.  The better than normal rain chance continues through the week ahead.  Gulf water is now at a season high 79.

NEXT WEEK:    Another upper ridge builds.  Get ready for the return of Big Heat.

MEMORIAL DAY: Please remember…

Memorial Day is much more than just a three-day weekend and a chance to get the year’s first sunburn. It’s a time to remember the men and women who sacrificed their lives for their country.

Whatever you have planned today, whether it’s a trip to the beach or a backyard BBQ, have a great day today.   Chase and I are headed to the Park again.  Here’s a snapshot from yesterday morning at Blount Cultural Park.

I’ll have a complete video  update for you tomorrow morning.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Memorial Day …

SUNDAY UPDATE:   Summertime Pattern – Frequent Showers For The Week Ahead

Good morning!  We are locked into a mid-summer pattern, but it’s only May.  Expect more hot and humid days with a generous supply of those afternoon & evening storms each day.

In fact, the odds of encountering one of those random downpours will actually get better in the week ahead. Some towns will get luckier the others.

Take a look at the storm total rainfall map from just the last 2 days.  Notice some of the heavier pockets of rainfall have been generally along and west of I-65.  Looks like a bull-eye of particularly heavy rainfall amounts in Lowndes county.  Since Thursday, the Montgomery Airport has had 2.34”.  Maxwell AFB  1.15”.   My rain gauge in East Montgomery has had 1.76” since Thursday.  Maybe your town saw more than that.

TODAY:  Rinse and Repeat.  Today will be much like yesterday. Patchy AM fog will give way to  sun/cloud mix.  Thunderstorms will start to pop up before lunch and will become more numerous in the afternoon and evening.  A couple storms could become string with gusty winds. Hot & humid.  High 92.  Low tonight 70.   Take a look at this Future Radar loop from 10am to 9PM.  This will give you an idea of how the storms will blossom in the daytime heat and become quite numerous.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Memorial day will be rather routine with a high near 90 and scattered storms.  Daily showers & storms will be in plentiful supply Tuesday through Friday.  Clouds and showers will knock the high temperatures down just a bit.

BEACH OUTLOOK:  There are many folks who have started their Beach vacations.  The outlook for the week ahead calls for an increasing chance of showers and storms each afternoon & evening.  Be flexible with your plans. Moderate rip current risk today and a HIGH risk on Monday.

 

I’ll have another blog update for you tomorrow morning.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Memorial Day weekend…

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Hot and Humid Holiday Weekend – More Pop Up Showers & Storms

 11:00AM UPDATE:

Not surprising…NWS In Birmingham says, “Isolated severe storms will be possible from noon to 8pm across all of Central Alabama. Damaging winds up to 60mph and large hail will be the primary threats.” (Much like yesterday..) #alwx    

Early morning update:

Good Morning, on a very humid Saturday morning.  Dense Fog will be widespread through about 9AM.

Yesterday’s pop storms were in rather generous supply.  Some of the storms became strong, with a few reports of damaging wind gusts.  Today afternoon and evening storms will again be in generous supply.  Although no severe weather is expected, a couple of stronger storms are possible.

The rest of this Memorial Day holiday weekend will be very warm & humid.  It will feel more like late June or early July.  In fact this hot & humid pattern with scattered daily pop-up storms will continue.

TODAY:  Very humid.   Hot today.  Sun & cloud mix.  High 91.  Like yesterday, the morning will be dry, but those heat of the day pop up showers and storms will start popping up after lunchtime and become rather numerous by later this afternoon and into this evening.   Coverage will be rather generous.  Perhaps 40-50%.  Again, a couple of the storms could be strong with gusty winds.  Boaters on Lake Jordan and Lake Martin should be watchful.  Keep an eye on Radar and Future Radar on our weather app.

Storms will fade out tonight.  Low tonight 69.

I don’t like to show Future Radar in a situation, because it can be so misleading.  However, this will give you at least some sense of how widespread the coverage could become by later afternoon.

It’s only May, but how about some mid summer humidity today and over the next few days.  Above 70 on the dewpoint today.  OUCH.  Not good.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  This pattern will continue through the holiday weekend and beyond. Sunday’s high could reach the low to mid 90’s.  Monday will be at least 90.  Scattered, random, pop-up storms will be around each day.  They will peak in the later afternoon and early evening and fade out at night.

BEACH FORECAST:  Widely scattered storms are possible today and tomorrow.  Storms become more numerous on Monday & Tuesday.  Moderate rip current risk is forecast for today and tomorrow.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Have a great Memorial Day Holidat weekend.   Stay safe and well.

-Rich