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Severe Weather Threat Today & Again Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

(11:45AM 5/3/21)

The Tornado Watch issued earlier for east central Alabama has been replaced. Now, a Severe thunderstorm Watch covers much of the state until 8PM. Damaging winds up to 65 mph and ping pong size hail is possible. A couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

Expect a couple of bumpy days today and tomorrow. Tomorrow, we are in a Level 3 Enhanced Severe Weather Risk. All modes of severe weather are possible. Stay Weather Aware.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:

Good Morning!  The next 3 days or so will be quite active. Wet & stormy at times.  Showers and thunderstorms will be quite numerous.  The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Severe Weather Risk Today, Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Rainfall amounts through mid-week could be heavy spots.  We’ll look ahead.  Late in the week, cooler and less humid air will arrive.  We’ll also take an early look at what’s shaping up to be a nice Mother’s Day weekend.  

Warm & humid today. That will be fuel for the fire. Showers and storms likely. Some storms could be severe this afternoon and this evening.

Level 2 Severe Weather Risk Today. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the main threat. Couple of tornadoes possible.

ENHANCED Severe Weather Risk Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Level 3. Damaging wind gusts, Large hail. Risk of a few tornadoes.

Locally heavy rainfall totals over the next 2-3 days.

Showers and storms will be numerous through Wednesday. Cooler and less humid Thursday and Friday. So far, the Mother’s Day weekend looks good

SUNDAY UPDATE: Storms Hold Off Until Tonight – Wet & Stormy Pattern Ahead – Strong Storms Possible

Tornado Watch covers much of west Alabama and into Mississippi. In Alabama the watch includes Dallas county westward until 10PM. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible.

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:

    Good Morning!  We’ve had a pretty nice weekend so far.  A storm system is on the way, But, I’m optimistic that today will be mainly dry, and showers & storms will hold off until tonight.  Your biggest complaint today, could be the amount of clouds that will be increasing during the day. Sunshine will be limited.

    An active pattern begins tonight.  Showers and storms will overspread the area.  Some storms by later tonight could be strong to severe.  It will be wet & stormy at times through Wednesday night.  It looks like another Severe Weather Risk by Tuesday afternoon/evening.

    On this blog update, I’ll look ahead to what is shaping up to be a nice Mother’s Day Weekend.

TODAY:   Another warm day.  Partial sunshine, but considerable clouds.  High 85.  Risk of some isolated showers later in the afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms become likely tonight.  A few storms could be strong, possibly severe in the overnight hours.  Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat.  Low 68.

 Here’s a couple Future Radar samples late tonight.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK:  Tonight, SPC carries a Marginal Severe Risk as far east as a Montgomery/Andalusia lineThe stronger Level 2 Risk covers the western counties, west of Selma.  The main time window would be from about 6PM in the western counties to about 2AM Central.  Damaging wind gusts would be the main threat.

   Tuesday’s situation is highly dependent on mesoscale details that won’t be known until Tuesday morning.  An approaching front, combined with strong daytime heating will set the stage for strong to severe storms in the afternoon & evening.  Right now, most of the state is in a Level 2 threat.  Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threat.  The tornado threat in this situation is not zero, but it appears very low.   

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Wet and stormy tonight through Wednesday night.  Locally heavy rainfall.  Strong to severe storms at times.  Right now, late week is looking much better, and that may carry well into the weekend, too.

LOVALLY HEAVY RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts through Thursday morning could be heavy in spots.  Some places could easily see 2 to 3”, if not more.

MOTHER’S DAY WEEKEND:  Right now, I am very optimistic about Mother’s Day weekend.  Saturday should be sunny & nice…high near 80.  Sunday will be a warm day.  Mid 80’s.  A storm system will be approaching, but I optimistic that showers and thunderstorms may hold off until Sunday night. 

10 DAY MODEL TRENDS: It will turn a little cooler late week, Thursday & Friday behind the storm system. Then, look for another big warming trend next week May 9 – May 12th.

I’ll have a complete video update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE: Nice Start to May Today – Wet & Active Pattern Begins Sunday Night

Good Morning!  Welcome to May.  What a nice start to the new month.  Sunshine, warm, but not humid.  Much of the weekend will be dry.  There may be some widely scattered showers by Sunday afternoon.  All in all, though, much of this weekend will be nice for outdoor activities.

    Get ready, though.  We are about to get into a wet & stormy pattern starting Sunday night and through much of the week ahead.  There could be some excessive rainfall totals in spots.  A few strong storms are certainly possible.

TODAY:  Nice first day of May.  Lots of sunshine.  Warm, but not humid.  High 84.  Winds 5 to 10 mph.  (Northeast in the morning, southeast wind in the afternoon)  Clouds increase tonight.  Low 61.

Today, all the active weather stays well west of Alabama.  Much of our region, including the Gulf Coast should see a nice Saturday.

SUNDAY:   Warm again.  High in the mid 80’s.  Mostly cloudy.  Widely scattered showers possible during the afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms become likely Sunday night. 

SEVERE WEATHER RISK?:   Marginal Severe risk will edge into the western counties of Alabama overnight Sunday.  The line of storms will tend to weaken below severe limits after moving through the western counties.  On Monday, the Marginal Severe Risk will affect northwest Alabama.

EXPECTED RAINFALL:  Waves of showers and thunderstorms this week will produce some rather impressive rainfall totals.  Some spots in central Alabama could see more than 3 inches.  Our neighbors just west of Alabama could see potential flooding rainfall amounts.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Active pattern begins Sunday night through Wednesday.  Periods of Showers and thunderstorms, as a series of disturbances move across the area.  Some strong storms are possible, particularly late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Highs in the 80’s through Wednesday.  Warmest day will be Tuesday…highs in the upper 80’s.  Muggy.  Nicer days late week.

BEACH FORECAST:  Not a bad weekend!   Lots of sunshine today.  Breezy.  Chance of a few spotty showers Sunday afternoon.  Showers and storms become likely Sunday night and Monday.

POLLEN FORECAST:  Pollen count will be in the medium to high range today, and medium Sunday and Monday.  Lower Tuesday.

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There will be another blog update in the morning.  Have a nice Saturday!  

–Rich

Scattered Showers – Much of the Weekend Dry – Active Next Week – FRIDAY Video

Good Morning!  A stalled front in the state today will be focus of a few scattered showers.  But, weekend news is not bad.  Saturday is dry and comfortable.  Much of Sunday looks dry.  But, get ready for a rather active pattern ahead.  The first wave of showers and thunderstorms move into the area Sunday night.  Then, look for waves of showers and storms at times next week.  As you will see on this video, rainfall amounts could be rather excessive, and some storms could be strong to severe at times.

That stalled front draped through the state will be the focus for s few scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm today and tonight. Warm day.

Much of the weekend will be dry until Sunday night. Sunday night is the start of a rather active few days.

The SPC Sunday Severe outlook (through 7AM Monday) includes the western part of our state. Level 2 risk covers Mississippi.

Starting Sunday night we get into a VERY active pattern for much of the week ahead.

Rainfall amounts over the next 6 days could be rather excessive in spots.

Here’s your weekend beach forecast. Next week will be rather stormy at times on the coast.

Front Approaches – Risk of Showers & Thunderstorms Returning – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  Today will be dry and warm.  But, an approaching front will bring the risk of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast overnight tonight.  But, what about the weekend?  The news is pretty good for much of the weekend.  There are new wrinkles as we look at the early part of next week.  I’ll update the details and we’ll check the Beach Forecast, too. 

Very warm for late April again today. Dry today. Risk of showers and storms arrives overnight tonight.

Risk of showers and thunderstorms Friday. I’m optimistic about Saturday. Should be dry. Chance of showers and thunderstorms returning by late Sunday and Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Here’s the updated Beach Forecast. Gulf water temperature is now 70.