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Latest Forecast

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Big Changes Ahead – Severe Risk Overnight– Temperature Plunge Ahead

UPDATED Severe Risk for tonight and overnight. Upgrade to a Level 2 ‘Slight Risk’ for the far western counties. Expanded Marginal Risk covers the rest of central AL and parts of south and SE Alabama, 7PM to 7AM. Damaging winds to 60 mph. Brief tornadoes also possible. #alwx

EARLY MORNING BLOG UPDATE:  

Good morning!  Welcome to the last day of November.  The Game Day weather couldn’t be better!.  More on that below.  But, get ready for a big change of reality.  A storm system will move in tonight, with showers and thunderstorms. I’ll bring you up to date on the Severe Weather Threat.  Then, as December begins, our temperatures will begin to take a big plunge.  Another change of wardrobe,  for maybe 3 days, before we start to moderate.

We’ve been spoiled the last few days with highs in the 70’s.  By Monday, we may not reach 50 degrees.

TODAY:   This string of great days continues for at least today.  The month of November will end on a very warm note. There will be some sunshine.  Clouds will increase during the day.  South wind 6 to 12.  High 77.  Showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight, and for most of us, especially late tonight.  Becoming windy tonight.  Low 62.

Here’s Future radar at 8PM.   We will be dry this evening.  Storms come later.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK?:  I’ll be honest with you.  The Severe Weather Threat overnight tonight is small, but not zero.  Last Wednesday morning, we had tornado damage in Pike and Barbour county from a similar storm system. (Two weak tornadoes touched down)  Tonight, we have a Marginal Severe Weather risk across the area, in the overnight hours, reaching southeast Alabama just before Dawn.  Make sure you have your weather radio in the alert mode.  OUR weather app will instantly alert you to a warning for your area…even with an audio cue, if you have that feature turned on.

DIFFERENCE OF OPINION:  The Local NWS office in Birmingham has all of us in the risk area. The Storm Prediction Center does not.

The main threat would be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.  But, in these November/December weather situations, there’s a great deal of  directional shear.  Brief tornadoes can not be ruled out.   A small risk, yes But, like last Wednesday, it can happen.

This graphic from NWS Birmingham shows most of us in the risk area, except for the far eastern and northeast counties.  It also shows some guidance on the timeline.

Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center keeps the risk across extreme NW Alabama.  Just wanted to make you aware of that.  I agree with the local NWS officials.  It’s better to err on the side of caution.

Here’s some Future Radar snapshots during the overnight hours.

GAME DAY FORECAST:  What can I say?  It’s one of the BEST Iron Bowl weather forecasts in years.  PERFECT.  Cool start at Dawn near 50.  Nice warming.  Low 70’s at Kick, mid 60’s at the end.  Lots of sun.  Light south wind.   Epic forecast.  Enjoy the game!

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Risk of showers ends early Sunday morning. Then, windy and turning colder.  High temperature in the morning…then falling.  30’s Sunday night.  Monday’s high may not reach 50 degrees.  20’s Monday night.  COLD start to December.  More rain from the next storm system Thursday night and Friday.

TERRIBLE travel scenario for travelers, coast to coast.  Expect significant airline delays today and tomorrow

Bailey and I will be heading northward from the coast this morning.  I’ll be watching the game on our couch.  And, I’ll be awake overnight, watching radar and monitoring the storm threat.   Another Blog in the morning.   The next video will be Monday morning.   It’ll be tough to leave the coast!

Final sunset last night from down here…

Rich

BLACK FRIDAY UPDATE:  Clear Sailing for Now – Saturday Night Storm System – Big Temperature Plunge Soon

Good Morning!   Whether you are a Black Friday shopper, or just enjoying the Holiday weekend off…today will be a GREAT late November day.  On Thanksgiving, Montgomery’s high was 71°, and it was 73° here on the Alabama Coast.  Today & Saturday we are headed back to the 70’s.  Timing is everything.  Looks like the weather will be great for the Big Game in Auburn, tomorrow.  That Weekend Storm system, we’ve been tracking, should hold off until Saturday night.  Then, look for a big temperature plunge behind that storm, as we start a new week and a new month.

Elsewhere:  Many Americans are dealing with the Second Big Holiday Weekend storm system.  It is causing hundreds of canceled and delayed flights.  Major Travel Nightmare.

TODAY:   Should be a great day!   Considerable high cloudiness, mixed with sunshine. Comfortable.  High 73°.  Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.  Partly cloudy tonight.  Not quite as cold…Low 50.

IRONBOWL GAME FORECAST:  I didn’t see any reason to make changes in the forecast.  It simply looks great.  For the tailgaters, it will be a chilly, but typical November morning with an early morning low of 48° .  The High during the afternoon will reach the low 70’s.  Winds will not be a factor:  South wind 5 to 10 mph.  I have the rain chance at 10% or less.  The Weekend Storm system should hold off until Saturday night.  Epic weather for the Ironbowl!

NEXT FEW DAYS:  So, we have nice weather today, and most of Saturday.  Showers & storms, possibly severe, Saturday night.  Rain threat continues Sunday morning, then sharply colder, with falling temperatures.  We’ll fall to the 30’s Sunday night.  Monday’s high will barely scrape 50°.  We are headed for a sub-freezing Tuesday morning.  Fortunately, the cold air won’t linger long, this time.

WEEKEND SEVERE THREAT?:  No change in thinking for Saturday evening’s Severe Weather Threat, which could begin as early as 6PM in the far western counties.  The threat will continue in the overnight hours through about 6AM in the east and southeast counties.  All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds to 60 MPH, and a few brief tornadoes.  It’s a similar set up to that Thanksgiving Eve storm system which brought tornado damage to Pike and Barbour counties.

The Severe Weather Threat area from the local Birmingham NWS office shows the threat area covering all but for eastern and NE Alabama, through 6AM Sunday.

The graphic from the Storm Prediction Center is a little different.  It mainly includes the western strip of counties.

HOLIDAY GREETINGS FROM THE ALABAMA COAST:  It was a picture-postcard Thanksgiving.  I had a wonderful food experience at the Perdido Beach Resort Thanksgiving Buffett. Bailey is here with me, and she sends warm holiday greetings to you and your family!

Enjoy this weather!  In many parts of the country, the weather is awful!

I hope you and your family have a GREAT Holiday Weekend.  I’ll have another Blog update in the morning, as we monitor that Saturday night storm system.  Happy Black Friday!

–Rich

THANKSGIVING UPDATE: Great Holiday Forecast – Weekend Storm System

Happy Thanksgiving!   Our holiday forecast couldn’t be better.  But, many, many Americans are dealing with harsh weather, as a series of powerful storm systems march across the nation.  We, fortunately, are in a “nice spot” between the storm systems, for now.  We are keeping close tabs on that next storm.  I’m afraid we will have to deal with a Severe Weather Threat Saturday evening, and overnight Saturday night.  December begins Sunday.  A cold front arrives Sunday.  It will turn sharply colder late Sunday and Sunday night.  Monday will be a cold, raw day.  Change of wardrobe again, but hopefully for just a couple of days.

Coast to coast…here’s the complicated storm set-up on this Thanksgiving.

TODAY:   Beautiful!   Sunshine will dominate.  We start in the 40’s at sunrise, and end up in the middle 60’s this afternoon.  (Normal high is 65, low 41)    Mostly clear tonight.  Low 45.  Enjoy!  This is a treat, compared to the weather elsewhere.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Our great weather continues on Black Friday.  A warming trend will take us into the low 70’s  Saturday, we’ll be in the middle 70’s as clouds increase. The severe threat will be Saturday evening and overnight.  Sunday will be a day of falling temperatures.  Sharply colder for Sunday night and Monday.  Cold Tuesday.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT:  Right now it appears the window for Saturday evening’s Severe Weather Threat could begin as early as 6PM.  The threat will continue in the overnight hours through about 6AM in the east and southeast counties.  All modes of severe weather are expected.

The Severe Weather Threat area from the local Birmingham NWS office shows the threat area covering all but for eastern and NE Alabama.  I think this is a more realistic assessment.  Brief tornadoes are possible, along with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

Right now, the Saturday severe weather threat graphic from the Storm Prediction Center (through 6AM Sunday), only includes the western counties.  It’s very possible (if not likely) their risk area will be expanded as we get closer to this event.  Stay tuned.  We’re monitoring.

Here’s the Saturday Storm-set-up.  Once again this powerful storm system will have a huge impact on holiday travel.

IRONBOWL GAME FORECAST:  It’s a great gameday forecast!  For those tailgaters, the morning low in Auburn will be 48°.  We will see a nice recovery during the day, with a sun/cloud mix.  I think the high could reach the low 70’s   I’ll keep rain the rain chance in the 10% range.  Fortunately, it appears that next big storm system will not arrive until Saturday night.  Winds will be southerly 6 to 12 mph.   A phenomenal forecast, when you think about Irowbowl game weather history.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING:  Hello from the Alabama Gulf Coast!  I have booked a famous Thanksgiving Buffet meal down here today.  I hope, wherever you are, you and your family and friends have a wonderful Thanksgiving!   Enjoy this beautiful weather.  Many areas of the nation are suffering through very harsh weather.   Here’s a snapshot of sunset here in Orange Beach on Thanksgiving Eve.

 

I hope you and your family have a very happy Thanksgiving.  I’ll have another Blog update in the morning, as we monitor that weekend storm system.  Enjoy this beautiful holiday.!

–Rich

Storm Systems Will Hamper Holiday Travel –TUESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  Today will be another care-free, and very comfortable day.  But changes are approaching.  A storm system will swing through the state Wednesday, and there will be another storm system over the weekend.  If you are traveling to other states, especially north of us, be ready for travel delays.  Airport delays will common, coast to coast, because of the ripple effect, as the storms cause delays at major hubs.  On this video, I’ll bring you up to date on the timeline, which has changed. Will there be any severe weather?   What about Iron bowl weekend?

 

While we will be comfortable and dry today, we note the significant storm system that will be moving across the mid section of our nation with heavy snow from the Midwest to the Great Lakes, and showers and locally severe storms in the warm air sector ahead of the front.

Attention Travelers…this storm system will have snow and ice in the cold air sector and severe thunderstorms, including a tornado threat in the Nation’s heartland today.

The local NWS office has included the western counties in a Marginal Severe Risk from Midnight to 7AM Wednesday, along and west of a Birmingham/Selma line.   Damaging wind gusts are possible, and a brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

The front marches across the state tomorrow with a band of showers and storms ahead of it.   Meanwhile a large part of the nation will be effected by this storm system from the Midwest and Great Lakes to the northeast.

 

Timing is everything, and it still appears the Thanksgiving forecast will be nice.

Black Friday will also be dry and comfortable.  But Storm System #2 arrives this weekend. Showers and storms by Saturday night into Sunday.  Possibly severe?   We don’t know yet.

Right now, I think we should be dry in Auburn for the Iron Bowl, with a 2:30 kickoff.  Temperatures should reach the 70’s  The storms arrive Saturday night.

 

 

MONDAY VIDEO: Thanksgiving Week Storm System

Good Morning…on a very chilly Monday morning.  We should see a beautiful start to this holiday week today.  BUT, there is  a major storm system developing which will affect Thanksgiving Week Holiday Travel in a big way, with significant snow & ice in spots and rain and thunderstorms in other spots.  I have the latest on timing.  Plus, I have updated a very nice Thanksgiving forecast.  Then, there is a significant Iron Bowl weekend storm system to worry about.  Will it arrive after the game?  Will it bring a Severe Weather threat to our state?  I’ll bring you up to date.

Nice day today!   Buy changes ahead.

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Major storm system could have a significant effect on Holiday Travel this week.  If you are traveling by air, expect delays.

Two storm systems on this holiday week.  FIRST one, Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Second one arrives during Iro Bowl WEEKEND.

NICE Holiday Forecast.

Important storm system arrives sometime Iron Bowl Saturday.  Will the showers arrive during the game?   Or will the big storms move through Saturday night/Sunday?  Will the storms be severe?