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FRIDAY UPDATE:   Numerous Showers & Storms Next Several Days

Good morning!  More heat, humidity and summertime storms are on the menu today.  Be flexible with your holiday weekend plans.  There will be a generous supply of storms each day through the middle of next week.  It won’t rain all the time.  But, the odds that you will encounter occasional storms over the holiday weekend will be rather high.  There will be tropical downpours and lots of dangerous lightning.  Gusty winds can be expected in the stronger storms.

So, we are stuck in a pattern right now, with an upper level low, which will be nearly stationary over the area for several days.  Steering currents are weak, and it has no place to go.  There are signs of improvement late next week, as storms finally thin out.

TODAY:  Hot & humid.  High in the low 90’s.  Heat index near 100.  Partly sunny.  There will be a generous supply of scattered storms around especially this afternoon this evening.  Today storms will be moving from the east to the west.  Please be careful and watch for dangerous lightning, especially on the Lake and the Golf courses, etc.  The 4th of July weekend, statistically has more lightning deaths and injuries than other time of the year.

Here’s a radar snapshot at 4:00pm.  Don’t take this literally.  It just shows the general coverage of the storms today. (rather numerous)

Some cities and towns have Independence Day Fireworks shows tonight.  There will still be some storms around at Fireworks time, but not quite as many.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  I wish I had better news for you.  Thunderstorms will be rather numerous each day through Wednesday.  It will be feast or famine.  The storms will be random.  Some towns will get more rain than others.

BEACH FORECAST:  Be patient and have a Plan B.  Showers and storms will be quite numerous on the coast during the entire holiday weekend.  It won’t rain all the time.  Watch out for dangerous lightning.  Moderate rip current risk through Sunday.

THE TROPICS:  While the tropics will be generally quiet, we’re watching for some possible “home grown” mischief in our backyard over the weekend.  A tropical Low may develop over the NW Florida coast, and eventually migrate northeastward into the Atlantic.  It’s not completely out of the question that a depression could form in the Atlantic.

OUR FREE WEATHER APP will keep you on top of the action.  Interactive radar will show you where the storms are now.   (Plus you can turn the lightning layer..) Future radar will show you where the storms will be over the next few hours.  You’ll get instant push notifications if a warning is issued for your location.  Download for your phone or tablet today.  Just search Rich Thomas Weather in the App Store.

Beautiful start to the Independence Day weekend! Happy birthday America!!

I will have another Blog Update for you tomorrow morning.    Please Stay safe and well, and be careful during this holiday weekend.

–Rich

Numerous Thunderstorms Will Plague the Holiday Weekend Forecast – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  No surprises today.  This very warm & muggy atmosphere is primed for more storms, especially this afternoon and this evening.  It’s looking more and more like the Fourth of July holiday weekend will be turbulent at times.  Numerous showers & storms will be around each day for here and the Gulf coast.  Be flexible with your plans.  There will be tropical downpours at times.  Of course, it won’t rain all the time.  There will be many dry hours, too.  But, total rainfall amounts over the weekend could be significant.  I have updated the daily rain chance through Tuesday.  Plus, I’ll show you which areas could see the most rain.  Will there be some tropical development?

Hot, muggy, with scattered storms today.

According to the Storm Prediction Center Mississippi and SW Alabama could see the most concentrated storms today.

Be flexible with your plans over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.  Numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Tropical Downpour.  Watch out for lightning.  Lightning deaths peak on the Fourth of July.

It’s not going to rain all the time, but the holiday weekend Beach Forecast is far from ideal.  Numerous showers and storms.

Rainfall amounts could be significant.  Especially across the southern half of Alabama and on the coast.

Could there be some tropical development near the Gulf Coast this weekend..and then into the Atlantic.  It’s possible.

Thunderstorm Season – Active Pattern Through the Weekend – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Welcome to July. Heat and humidity will set the stage for thunderstorms.  There will be a generous supply of storms each day from today, through the 4th of July Holiday weekend and beyond, for here, the Lakes and the Gulf Coast Beaches.  Clusters of storms will be rather strong at times, with gusty winds, lots of lightning and tropical downpours.  There will be a few warnings at times.  On this video, I have adjusted the daily rain chance through Tuesday.  I have an update on the tropics, too.

 

Heat and humidity will lead to widespread showers and storms.

Clusters of storms will move from the northwest to the southeast today.

An upper level  trough of low pressure, combined with deep tropical moisture will lead to numerous storms, day after day, for several days.

Thunderstorms will be rather numerous each day through the weekend into early next week.

Be flexible.  It will be stormy at times at the beach through the holiday weekend.  Have a plan B.  Watch out for lightning.

This is only AVERAGE rainfall for the next 6 days.  Actual rainfall totals will vary widely.  It looks very wet at times for several days.

The EURO model suggests a tropical depression could form near the coast and head northeast.  The GFS model also suggests tropical development.

 

 

Heat, Humidity, More PM Storms – Storms Increase Late Week – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  On this last day of June, expect another nearly intolerable hot & humid day with triple digit heat indices.  Yesterday we had a high of 94 with a heat index of 104.  There’s no reason to believe we won’t be in the same neighborhood today.  We’re getting into a very unsettled pattern.  Thunderstorms will become much more numerous over the next several days.  Unfortunately, the stormy pattern, with better than normal rain chances will be with us through the 4th of July holiday weekend.  I have “tweaked” the rainfall probabilities through Monday.  I’ll show you how much rain could fall, and we’ll check the tropics.

Moist, unstable atmosphere with dewpoints in the mid 70’s…added with intense heat will lead to big storms..  Feast or famine.

Radar should be much more active today than yesterday.

 

Unfortunately, Beach goers will have to dodge some storms and downpours through the holiday weekend.  Total rainfall in spots could total 3-5″.

 

In the TROPICS, NHC is monitoring an “area to watch” off the North Carolina coast.   Another wave coming off Africa needs to be watched, too, over the next few days.

More Scattered Storms Today – Triple Digit Heat Index – Active Weather Week Ahead – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  Heat and humidity with more scattered storms, sums up today’s forecast.  Yesterday we got to 102 on the Heat Index.  We’ll be in that neighborhood again today.  The big story for the week ahead will be another significant increase in the daily rain chance, especially Wednesday through the Fourth of July weekend.  We are headed into an unsettled period of days with frequent tropical downpours.  I have updated the daily rain chances through next Monday.  I have updated Beach Forecast for the week.  And, we’ll tropics and update the dust plume.

More triple digit heat indices today. Random Scattered PM storms.

Spotty storms will cool down a few lucky communities today.

a “Weakness” will develop in the upper atmosphere, which will keep us rather unsettled for several days, especially from Mid week and through the Holiday weekend.  Tropical Downpours at times.

Daily Rain chances will be quite high through most of the week ahead.

Be flexible with your 4th of July Holiday weekend plans.  We’ll be dodging raindrops at times.

Rain chance at the beach will be routine today and tomorrow.  But there will be a dramatic increase in the number of storms Thursday and through the holiday weekend.