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Latest Forecast

Potential Tropical Storm Nine is Born – New Cone Covers Florida

The Disturbance called  Invest 95-L has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  It’s located 235 miles SE of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas, moving NW at 8 mph.  Winds 30 MPH.  It does not currently have a closed circulation, but it is expected to become a Depression or Tropical Storm in the next 24 hours.  The Bahamas Government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the NW Bahamas Islands, including the Abacos.  Needless to say, this is the area that was devastated by Dorian a few days ago.

The system is expected to affect the Florida coast with tropical storm force winds and heavy rain over the weekend.    The next available name on the list is Humberto.  Alabama is currently NOT in the forecast cone.

The worst news for Alabama would be that this system probably will not bring us the raindrops we were hoping for.  MUCH more in the morning!!

 

 

 

Intense Heat Continues – Will Invest 95-L Visit Alabama with Needed Rain? – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!   Intense Heat continues in our forecast today and tomorrow.  But, there’s a big question about our future. Will that tropical system in the Bahamas visit Alabama with some beneficial raindrops, or will it bypass us?  The models are in big disagreement on the future of Invest 95-L.  On this video, I’ll do my best to decipher the forecast.  We need the rain!  And, what about that next tropical system, way out in the Atlantic.  Does that system have future implications for the United States?  There’s much to discuss this morning.

 

The Upper Level Heat Bubble High spells another hot day today with the rain chance very small.

Great uncertainty of the future track of Invest 95-L could have a big impact on the forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

The Hurricane Center now gives Invest 95-L a 70% chance of becoming a depression in the next few days, as it heads in the direction of Florida and the Gulf.

Some models bring the system right over Florida.  Some into the Atlantic.  Some into the Gulf.

Further out, Invest 94-L could have a very interesting future in maybe 8-10 days, if it can survive…

For instance…the EURO model suggests it could be a hurricane (maybe) in the Bahamas and approaching the US coastline. Stay tuned.

Much uncertainty now on the impact 95-L could have on the Beach forecast this weekend.

 

 

 

 

Hot & Dry Now – Watching Tropical Development – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!   The intense late summer heat continues today.  In fact, even the chances of seeing a shower will be very remote through the end the week.  BUT, we’re watching the tropics.  Invest 95-L in the Bahamas could be the system that brings our next best chance of rain, perhaps by Sunday & Monday.  Keep the fingers crossed.  I have the latest model runs.  And, there’s a couple of other systems we’re watching, too.

Another very hot summer day today.  Highs in the upper 90’s  Heat index 100 to 105.  Isolated storms can’t be ruled out, but the chances are 20% or less.

Several systems being monitored in the tropics.  Invest 94-L near the Leeward Islands could be a player down the line in a few days next week as it heads in the direction of the Bahamas and the SE US.    But, closer to home, Invest 95-L could have an impact on Alabama’s weather before this weekend is over.

NHC gives 95-L a 50% chance of development into a Depression over the weekend in the Gulf.  Some of the model tracks take the system into Alabama.

The EURO model likes the Idea of this Tropical Low moving into Alabama maybe late Sunday, through Monday & Tuesday, which would bring very beneficial raindrops to the state,

The American GFS model tracks the system farther west.  Most of the ensemble members are west of Alabama.  Stay tuned.

 

 

TUESDAY UPDATE:  The Heat Goes On – Spotty, Random Relief

Good morning!  More intense heat today!  Heat index will be in triple digits, but just below heat index criteria.  There were a few healthy storms roaming around yesterday.  Some put on quite a show.  There were a few warnings.  Today storms will be few and far between.  When can we expect relief?  We have our eyes on that third weekend of September.

TODAY:   A HOT day.  High in the upper 90’s again.  Heat index 102 to 105.  Widely scattered, random storms.  Tonight’s low 73.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Still hot.   Upper 90’s through Thursday.  Mid 90’s Friday.  A little lower over the weekend.  Spotty storms.

LONGER RANGE:  For many days I have been teasing you.  The third weekend in September offers big hope for nicer air, lower humidity and cooler nights.

THE TROPICS:  First, we don’t care about Gabrielle.  A tropical wave coming into the Bahamas needs to be watched as it moves northwest.  In the Gulf of Mexico it could perhaps develop into a Tropical Low.  The EURO model indicates a 50-60% chance.  Meanwhile there is Invest 94-L and another Area to Watch.

 

Today, I am still at the NWA Weather Conference in Huntsville.

Tomorrow we are back to normal.  I will have a complete video update online tomorrow morning at 4:45AM.  Have a great Day today!

–Rich

Brutal Heat Again Today – Widely Scattered Relief – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  I wish I had better news.  Today will be another of day of Dangerous Intense Heat.  Yesterday we had a record high of 100, with a heat index of 108.  Today will be almost a carbon copy.  Spotty relief in the form of a few random showers will dot the radar screen for a handful of lucky towns perhaps.  Oh, but do see some nicer air a few days away.  I’ll bring you up to date here on your morning video from our NWA Weather Conference in Huntsville.

 

I’ve got the afternoon rain chances at 20%…so there will be spotty relief, otherwise more brutal heat.  HEAT ADVISORY in effect.  Heat index as high as 106 to 109.

Tiny rain chances in the forecast for the next couple of days… Meanwhile the intense Late Summer Heat continues.

Hang on!   Around the third weekend of September the models continue to advertise nice relief.  Thge GFS hints at some morning lows in the 50’s!