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SAT. 2:55AM UPDATE: Enhanced Sever Risk Continues – Working on your Blog Update

SAT. 2:55AM UPDATE: Enhanced Sever Risk Continues – Working on your Blog Update
Good morning…Just wanted to let you know I am doing the research and graphic building for your morning Blog Update, as we get ready for today’s Severe Weather Threat. Briefly, I wanted to show where the Tornado Watch is as of 3AM…back to west of us, already into Central MS. AND, our threat level for today has not changed. Still Level 3 ENHANCED. I’ll have a Blog Update online before 6AM.
While I work on your graphics…let me give you something to chew on. This is a technical discussion meant for Meteorologists which will give you a great overview of the situation. SORRY it’s so technical, but you will get the gist of is…it’s very good!
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:
Consensus of latest guidance clearly indicates that previous
forecasts are on track with little changes needed other than minor
timing changes. Confidence continues to increase that an intense
QLCS producing widespread damaging winds with isolated gusts to 70
mph possible and embedded quickly developing tornadoes with a
couple strong tornadoes possible. Extensive pre-frontal severe
QLCS has developed as expected, extending from Illinois to the
Texas Coastal Waters with confirmed reports of damaging winds,
a recent TDS east of Shreveport, and a measured 70 mph wind gust
near Beaumont TX. This QLCS will continue to maintain itself
and/or intensify as it encounters a large area of 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE over Louisiana and Mississippi and the upper trough becomes
more neutrally tilted. This potent shortwave trough will lift
northeastward to the Mid-South by this evening, taking on a
neutral tilt at mid-levels and a negative tilt at upper-levels.
It will be accompanied by a 120kt mid-level speed max behind the
QLCS, with 80-85kts of mid-level flow in closer proximity to the
line, and a 70kt southerly 850mb LLJ. A current broad area of low
pressure will consolidate into a 1000mb deepening surface low, and
the pre-frontal QLCS will continue to race eastward across
Alabama during the day today.

Regarding timing, did bump the start time up to 9 AM mainly for
the far northwest counties based on the current line orientation
and radar extrapolation, but most areas will see the threat hold
off until after 11 AM. Also changed the end time to 7 PM as the
line should be in Georgia at that time. Some argument could be
made for upgrading the risk to moderate, but don`t want to get too
caught up in risk levels as everyone should take this seriously
regardless. Severe thunderstorm warnings should also be treated
seriously given the strong wind potential and potential for
tornadoes to spin up with little lead time, and especially mobile
home residents and those with many trees near their home should
consider moving to a safe place even for severe thunderstorm
warnings. Brief heavy downpours along the line may cause minor
flooding of poor drainage areas, but short duration of heavy rain
at any one location should prevent much of a flooding threat. Have
already seen a couple 35 mph gradient wind gusts in our area,
with several sites recording 35-45 mph gusts across Mississippi
and Louisiana so the wind advisory remains on track.

FRI PM: Saturday’s Significant Severe Risk – Not Many Changes

If you got a minute to watch a quick 1 minute 46 second video chat…here’s an update on tomorrow’s severe weather threat.  NOT Much has Changed from this morning as far as expectations.

 

CLICK ON THIS QUICK VIDEO CHAT!!!   

Video Jan 10, 3 47 51 PM

 

 

Our to the west of us…this afternoon:  Looks like it could be a day in April, huh? But, it’s January 10th. Numerous tornado warnings and couple of Tornado watches, Oklahoma and Texas. Farther east a significant Level 4 Moderate Severe Risk for the ArkLaTex. This is Alabama’s future tomorrow. Monitoring..

 

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

It’s rare in the month of January to see such a STRONG Severe Weather Threat.  Saturday’s ENHANCED Risk is level 3 out of 5.  It’s not out of the question that the risk could be bumped up to Level 4 before the storm system arrives.  Tornadoes are likely in Alabama tomorrow.  A few could be strong, EF-2 or higher.  Damaging wind gusts 70+ mph are also good bet with many of the storms.  The action could begin late morning west, spreading eastward through the day and exiting the eastern counties later in the evening.  I have the very latest information on this developing situation on this video, as we continue to prepare for this potentially significant severe weather event.  Have a family plan.  Stay weather aware.

Nothing severe here today.  Scattered showers today and tonight.  Maybe a thunderstorm.  Look at the map!  There’s that big storm system lurking out to the west of us.

Could be a major outbreak of tornadoes across the ArkLaTex Region today.   RARE Moderate Risk.  Level 4.

PRIME TIME LINE from about 10AM in the far west to 8PM in east and SE Alabama.  TORNADOES are likely.  A few Strong.  Damaging wind gusts to 70+ mph.  The ENHANCED Level 3 risk could possibly be upgraded to Level 4 before this event begins.

Just to give you a taste of Future Radar, here’s one snapshot around 3PM, showing the squall line in central Alabama and individual cells, possibly rotating ahead of the main line.

On and off rain is in the forecast for the next few days..

Series of disturbances in the next 7 days could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts in spots.

 

 

 

THURS. PM: New Severe Weather Timeline Adjusted for Saturday

UPDATE ON THE SATURDAY SEVERE WEATHER TIMELINE:  

We’re getting close enough, now, to Saturday’s Severe Weather Event for a few adjustments in the timeline . Severe Weather is LIKELY Saturday.  The timeline has been adjusted slightly, later.  The window extends from about 10AM in the far western counties to about 8 PM in the far southeastern counties.  For MANY of us…11AM to 6PM will be the prime window.  The ENHANCED risk continues.  That would be level out of 5. Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts 70+ mph, and tornadoes are possible.  Some tornadoes could be strong, EF-2 or higher.  Further revisions are possible. An upgrade to a level 4 list is not out of the question, as new model data arrives between now and Saturday.  Keep checking for updates!

 

EARLY MORNING POST: 

Good Morning!  Enjoy a rather tranquil, and mild Thursday.  We continue to monitor an approaching storm which will bring a Significant Severe Weather Threat to our neighbors to the west tomorrow and across Alabama Saturday.  The threat includes damaging winds and tornadoes.  On this video, I’ll bring you up to date on potential impacts and timing.  Now is the time to for you to think about your Saturday plans.  Rainfall over the next 7 Days could be excessive in spots.  I’ll show you how much rain could fall.  I have everything you need to know on this important morning briefing.

 

Enjoy a quiet, mild day today…

 

The massive storm system out to the west of us will cause a variety of different weather problems.  Could be a BIG tornado day in the ArkLaTex region tomorrow.

The evolution and eastward movement of the front Saturday from morning until early evening.

Rare & significant for January, and ENHANCED Severe Weather Risk for much of Alabama Saturday.  Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.  A few strong tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

Threat begins fairly early Saturday morning in the west and exits east Alabama by about 6PM.  An all day event for the state.

Unknown factor…will there be individual supercells ahead of the main line?  We hope not.  That’s a dangerous scenario.

With the threat of rain, from a series of disturbances, in the forecast for the next several days…rainfall in parts of Alabama and neighboring states could be excessive in spots over the next 7 days.

Confidence Grows for Severe Weather Outbreak Saturday –WEDNESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  Our weather is quiet, and pretty nice today and tomorrow.  After a cold start this morning, but we’re headed for the 60’s this afternoon, and tomorrow will be warmer.  However, confidence continues to grow for what could be significant outbreak of severe weather Saturday.  The threat includes damaging wind gusts, 70+mph,  and tornadoes.  On this video, I have the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. Plus, an update on the timing.  The action could begin early Saturday, with the threat continuing for much of the day.  Be aware, and be prepared to be very flexible with your plans.  This is not a standard severe weather threat day.  If you live in a manufactured home, think about where you could move to a safer structure to ride out a tornado watch.  Now is the time for planning.

 

Nice quiet day today with a nice afternoon warm-up after a chilly start.

Nice and quiet Thursday.  Warmer.   Into the 70’s Friday with scattered showers.  Significant severe weather event Sunday.  THEN, the front returns northward, and stalls over Alabama  Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday.

Severe Weather action could begin along Alabama’s western counties by 9am and work eastward with the front during the day, and out of the state by about 6PM.

There are many factors that make up a Severe Weather Threat.  Two important ingredients are Shear or spin AND Instability or lift.  BOTH will be in ample supply Saturday.  This is something called the K factor, which combines those two ingredients.  Levels will be high Saturday.  Here’s a NOON snapshot from the EURO model.

SPC maintains a higher ENHANCED risk area for much of the state Saturday.  Significant risk of damaging wind gusts 70+ mph and tornadoes.  Perhaps a few strong tornadoes.

LOCAL NWS Threat map from the BHM office extends the ENHANCED risk to the Georgia line and I think this is a prudent outlook.  It continues the timing from 9AM in the far west to 6PM in the far east.  This could change in later forecaasts.

 

Rainfall amounts over the next seven days could become quite excessive to say the least.  Rivers levels which are already high, will need to be closely monitored for the Flooding Threat.

Update on Saturday’s Severe Threat – TUESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  A weak cool front is drifting through the state very early.  There were even a couple of showers with the front overnight.  Much of today and tomorrow will be very nice. We have another freeze tonight.  But, All Eyes continue on that weekend storm system, which will bring a potentially  significant  Severe Weather Threat to our state Saturday, including a tornado risk.  The models are a little closer on the movement & timing of this system.  I’ll update you on the details, including the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. Plus, we will take a peek later in the month.  Will the above normal temperatures continue, or will the log jam break?

 

Breezy but nice today.  Clouds early give way to sun.

Near Freezing Wednesday morning.  Nice Day Wednesday.  Warmer Thursday but dry.  Risk of showers maybe a thunderstorm or two Friday and Friday night.  Severe Weather Risk Saturday.  All modes of severe weather.

The new SPC Saturday Severe Threat map raises eyebrows.  It now includes an Enhanced risk in parts of central and most of West Alabama, including a potential significant tornado risk.

Highs in the mid 70’s Saturday will add to the level instability for what looks like a widespread severe weather outbreak.

Rainfall amounts could be significant in spots.