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SPECIAL 4PM Monday Update:    Cat 2 Hurricane Sally Threat Growing as The Storm Slows, and Track Shifts East

Sally is stronger now… a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 100 mph.  Moving WNW at 6.  145 miles SE of Biloxi.  Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward to Pensacola.  The track continues shifting eastward.  Sally is expected to slow down dramatically which will exasperate hurricane conditions.  Landfall is forecast for late Tuesday night along the Mississippi coast.  Then there will be a sharp curve to the east into Alabama Wednesday and Thursday.  Here’s new track map.

 

CENTRAL ALABAMA:  This is subject for much review as we learn more about Sally’s future forward speed, intensity and track.  But, it appears we could see Flooding Rainfall.  Flash Flood Watch in effect.  Rainfall amounts could be excessive. (especially closer to the coast).  The threat of Tropical Tornadoes will begin as early as daytime Tuesday in south Alabama.  It looks like there could be a significant tropical tornado threat for much of central and south Alabama on Wednesday.  It looks like Sally will have a very prolonged grip on Alabama’s weather long into Friday.

RAINFALL POTENTIAL:    This map speaks for itself.  Excessive rainfall totals are anticipated.  And, this is certainly subject for revision as we continue to learn more about Sally’s changing track, and timing.  Flooding rainfall will be perhaps the biggest impact Sally will have on our local weather.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:  Unbelievable.  FIVE named Tropical systems and two Areas to Watch.  Brand New today is tropical storm Teddy and Tropical Storm Vicky.  There is 0nly one more name on the list before we switch to the Greek alphabet.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL: A weekend Cold front will bring in some much nicer air over the upcoming weekend, with sunshine, lower humidity and nicer humidity.

I will have a complete video update for you in the morning.  Stay safe and well.  Stay weather aware. .

–Rich

Hurricane Sally is Now in a Rapid Intensification Cycle

NOON UPDATE:

Hurricane Sally has quickly intensified from a 65 mph storm to 90 mph within two hours. The Rapid intensification Cycle continues. Sally is now expected to become t least a 105 mph Hurricane at landfall on Tuesday. It’s not out of the question that it could become close to a Cat 3 major Hurricane. Plus, the eastward shift of the track is now quite concerning for the Alabama coast and for our central Alabama impacts. Stay weather aware as the danger escalates.

Expected rainfall will be EXCESSIVE.

 

10:00AM UPDATE:

Hurricane Warning issued for the Alabama Gulf Coast, as the Sally track continues to shift a little eastward. Still a 65 mph Trop. Storm, expected to become a hurricane later today and make landfall tomorrow. Excessive rainfall expected. Updated rainfall potential numbers 

 

EARLY MORN ING UPDATE:  

Obviously,  the total focus on this video will be on Sally.  I have the latest track from the National Hurricane Center, and I’ll run down what kin d of impacts we are expected to see here, and we’ll update the projected rainfall from Sally.  Plus, what happens after Sally?  Could we see some weekend relief?

Sally is expected to become a hurricane later today.  It will make landfall Tuesday or Tuesday evening along the LA/MS coast.  It will slow down dramatically, which is bad news.  Dangerous storm surge and flooding rainfall.  The system will make a right turn into Alabama on Wednesday.  We will be on the very active side of the storm.

Lots of impacts for us.  Threat of flooding from heavy rain, Tropical Tornadoes and gusty surface winds.

This map speaks for itself.  Significant rainfall amounts are expected.

 

Obviously Sally will dominate our weather this week.

There are SIX more features we are tracking in the tropics, but we are only going to worry about Sally right now.

Could we see Cool Frontal Relief this weekend?  The models are advertising a front which makes it all the way through here to the coast with nice air behind it.

The EURO is even hinting at some upper 70’s for highs behind the front…  ??

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Sally Will Make Landfall as a Hurricane Along the Northern Gulf Coast – What Impacts for us?

4:o0PM UPDATE:  

No change in Sally’s status. 60 mph Tropical Storm, expected to become a Hurricane Monday. Expected landfall Tuesday along the northern Gulf Coast. Very little change in track/cone. No change in watch/warnings. Hurricane Watch on the Alabama coast and Tropical Storm Warning

 

 

**10 AM UPDATE:

Sally is getting stronger. Air Force RECON reports the winds at 60 mph now. Sally track nudged a little westward on new NHC cone. Expected to become a Hurricane Mon. and make landfall on the northern Gulf coast Tues. It will slow dramatically which will exasperate the storm surge and flash flooding threat. Sally’s winds could be stronger than indicated

EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

Obviously today’s weather blog will be dominated by Sally, which is a tropical Storm in the southeastern Gulf, bound to become a Category 2 Hurricane before making landfall along the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday.  It will become a slow mover as it approaches the coast and that will exasperate a very complicated forecast.  I’ll do my very best to sort out what we know now, but understand, as the future track and intensity of Sally will changes, the forecast details will also change as we get closer to landfall.

SALLY’S CURRENT TRACK FORECAST:  Sally’s wind s have increased to 50 mph, now 115 miles west of Port Charlotte, Florida moving WNW at 13 mph.  It ‘s expected to intensify in the Gulf.  It is forecast to a Cat 2 hurricane before landfall on the LA/MS coast Tuesday.  Be aware, the intensity forecast is conservative.  It is possible the storms could go into a rapid intensification cycle on Monday.  The storm will slow it’s forward speed as it approaches the coast and that is NOT good news, at all.  Sally is the 18th storm of the 2020 season.

CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS: The Alabama Coast is under a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning.  The Tropical Storm warning covers the rest of the FL Panhandle.  Hurricane Warning along the LA/MS coast includes the city of New Orleans.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:  For us the greatest impacts would begin late Tuesday night, Wednesday and Thursday, including the threat of excessive rainfall, tropical tornadoes, and gusty wind, possibly gusting in the 30-40 mph range, with much higher amounts the father southwest you go in the state.  **Keep in mind this forecast will be changed and updated as the track of Sally changes and depends on Sally’s ultimate intensity.

Rainfall amounts will be excessive.  And, this map is highly dependent of Sally’s track, timing and intensity.

TODAY & Monday:  Both today & tomorrow will be relatively routine.  Hot & humid.  Low to mid 90’s.  Random,  scattered mostly afternoon & evening storms.  Breezy.  East to southeast winds at 10 to 15.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   All of this, obviously is subject to radical change depending on Sally’s Future path.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:   The Hurricane Center has it’s handful.  There’s still Paulette and Rene and Tropical Depression Twenty, plus multiple areas to watch.  TD 20 will probably become “Teddy”.

I’ll have a complete video Monday morning. There may be additional updates today as needed.  Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday.

–Rich

Special SATURDAY PM UPDATE: Hurricane Watch on the Alabama Coast. Sally will Intensify over the Gulf

4:00PM UPDATE:  
Hurricane Watch from the Mouth of the MS eastward to the Alabama/ Florida border. Tropical Storm Sally expected to grow stronger and make landfall as a hurricane Tuesday. The new Track curves Sally as a depression Thursday. All of Alabama now in the NHC cone.
1:00PM UPDATE:
*BREAKING: “My Name is Sally“. NHC: T.D 19 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally. Not far from Naples. Wind 40 mph. Moving west at 7. Expected to become a Hurricane before Tuesday landfall. Hurricane watch likely for northern Gulf coast later this afternoon 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/121801.shtml?

Good morning!  There is now much uncertainty in the forecast for the week ahead.  T.D. 19 near South Florida will track into the Gulf, and likely become a named tropical storm.  It is likely to threaten the northern Gulf Coast by early to mid-week, as it slows down.  The exact impact it will have on the Alabama Gulf coast and the rest of Alabama’s weather depends on the exact track, speed, and evolution of the system.

TODAY:  Partial sunshine, very humid.  High in the lower 90’s  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours.  They will tend to fade out at night.  Low tonight 73.

 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19:  There is much uncertainty on TD 19’s future.  It was almost Tropical Storm strength when it came ashore last night not far from Miami.  It is expected to reach Tropical Storm strength later today, again.  In the warm water of the Gulf the system will be near Hurricane strength or stronger at landfall in the early to middle part of the week. It will slow forward speed quite a bit in the Gulf due to weaker steering currents.

 

Some models take it to hurricane strength.  The official NHC intensity forecast is a tad conservative at the moment.  It also depends on the amount of potential wind shear the system could encounter.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:  It is not known if TD 19 will get the name Sally or Teddy.  It all depends on that other Invest, Invest 95-L in the Tropical Atlantic.  We don’t know which system could be named first.   Meanwhile, there is Paulette, and Rene in the Atlantic and 2 other Areas to watch, one in the central Gulf and another one coming off Africa.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The Sunday forecast is routine, but Monday through Wednesday especially, is certainly up for revision as we watch the potential impact of the Tropical Storm (or Hurricane).

The Potential Rainfall Map is a bit disturbing and up for debate and revision over the next few days.

I’ll have another blog update in the morning, or later today if needed.   I’ll have new information from the National Hurricane Center.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your weekend!

–Rich

Special FRIDAY PM UPDATE: Tropical Depression 19 to Become a Storm In the Gulf

Special Friday PM Update: Tropical Depression 19 – Likely to be Tropical Storm in the Gulf
(4:00 PM CDT (9/11/20)
Tropical Disturbance Invest 96-L is now Tropical Depression 19, and could, rather quickly become a Tropical Storm. The system will affect South Florida tonight and then move into the Gulf. It will very likely become a Tropical Storm. National Hurricane Center says people along the northern Gulf coast should monitor this system closely. Next two names on the list are Sally and Teddy. We could see two depressions develop by later today or this weekend. The other one is in the Tropical Atlantic.
Image may contain: text that says '5N MS SC ON 2MTue Tue PM LA GA AM Mon 2MSun 2PM Wed 25N 2PM Mon Mexico D Fri 2 AM Sun 2 PM Sat T.D. T.D.19 Bahamas Cuba 100W 95W Tropical Depression Nineteen Friday September 1, 2020 PM EDT Advisory NWS National Hurricane Center 90W 85W Current information: Center location 25.4 79.0 w Maximum sustained wind 35 mph Movement WNW at mph 80W Forecast positions: Tropical Cyclone O Post/Potential TC Sustained winds 39 mph 39-73 mph H74-110 mph M: 110 mph'
EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

Good morning!  Deep tropical moisture covers the Gulf south.  There was a generous supply of showers and storms yesterday, and today will be similar.  Some towns will see multiple showers.  The coverage on the showers & storms will be quite dense Saturday through Monday.  That could affect a lot of outdoor plans for here, the Lakes and the Beaches.  Be flexible.  Have a plan “B”.

We’re also keeping close tabs on potential tropical activity in the Gulf.  It’s not out of the question we could see a Depression develop over the weekend or early next week.  More on the tropics below.  The tropics are quite busy.

TODAY:  Limited sunshine.  Like yesterday, there will be some scattered downpours in spots.  Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon & evening, but just about anytime.  High today 91.  Low tonight 74.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Looks like a very wet pattern through the weekend, and well into next week.  Scattered to numerous storms each day.

The Euro model prints out some potential pockets heavy rainfall over parts of south Alabama and the Florida panhandle through Tuesday.

THE TROPICS:  There are many systems being monitored in the Tropics.

Paulette is expected to become a hurricane over the next day or two.  It could affect Bermuda.  Tropical Storm Rene is curving into the eastern Atlantic.  Invest 95-L has a 90% chance of developing into a Depression or Tropical Storm Sally soon.  It needs to be watched several days on the line.  Will in curve, or could it be a potential threat to the United States?

Closer in, there is a disturbance in the central Gulf which will be curving west and then southwest.  Meanwhile, low pressure near the Bahamas has a decent chance of possibly becoming a Depression in the Gulf either late this weekend or early next week.  We will continue to monitor that closely.

BEACH FORECAST:  With deep tropical moisture in place, the chances that you encounter an occasional heavy downpour on the coast is pretty high over the next few days.  Be flexible.

The Rip Current risk is listed as low, however I did notice yellow flags here on the coast yesterday.

   Good morning from Orange Beach.  It’s clear right now, but we had a storm during the night.

Back at my home in East Montgomery, my weather station reports that there were two nice downpours yesterday.  One was mic afternoon and the other one was apparently around 10PM last night.  I had .42”  I also got lightning alerts on both storms.  The airport only had .10”  Storms were moving westward.  That should be the case again today.

I will have a complete video update for you in the morning.  Stay safe and well.  Have a nice day.

The lights of the city of Orange Beach, from across Back Bay at 5AM…

–Rich