SUNDAY UPDATE:  Extended Summer Rolls On – Storms Fade Away This Week

Good Morning!   On this last day of September, the song remains the same.  More 90 degree heat, and humidity and some random storms.  But, the pattern is changing for the week ahead.  A building ride of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will spread across the Gulf states and grow stronger.  This will tend to keep the rain chances very small, especially Tuesday through Saturday…not zero, but perhaps 10% or less.  Meanwhile, if you’re looking for nice Fall air, our wait goes on.  The first few days of October will feature more 90 degree days.  In fact, I can’t see any meaningful cool fronts  in our future for the next several days, unfortunately.  Extended summer rolls on.

..Just a few words about yesterday.  There were spotty storms around.  Not many.  They weren’t moving much.  One little cluster hung right over the Auburn area.  Because there was some lightning involved, the football game was delayed for about 2 hours and 45 minutes.  Otherwise, it was a routine summer-like day, with Montgomery’s high of 90, again, after a morning low of 70.  Normal high is 84, normal low 60.

TODAY:  A stalled frontal system stretched across southeast Alabama, will be the focus for a few “hit or miss” random storms this afternoon & this evening.  High today near 90 again.  Low tonight near 70.

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:    There could be a stray shower or two around (scattered) on Monday.  But, the trend will be for few if any showers Tuesday through the end of the week, as the big upper high pressure ridge builds across the Gulf south, and becomes stronger.  That will suppress showers.  Daily highs will be 90 or above.  Lows at night near 70.

TROPICAL UPDATE:  The tropical outlook may from NHC, looks very lonely now with just tropical storm Leslie in the central Atlantic.  The remnants of Kirk are now just a weak, westward moving, tropical wave in the central Caribbean.  It’s chance of regeneration down the road appears small but now zero.

Have a great Sunday! I will have you a complete video update Monday morning online by 4:45AM, on the first day of October.    I’ll see you in the morning.  Goodbye September.

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Good morning!  Whether you are headed to the Alabama National Fair today, or one of many big home Football games in the state, your chances of encountering a random storm is relatively low today.  A little disturbance will come in play tomorrow.  So, on Sunday, your odds of running into one of those “hit or miss” storms is better tomorrow than today.  However, in the week ahead, look for a much different pattern.  By mid to late week, storms will be scarce to none, as upper level high pressure builds over the region. While the ridge will keep us dry, it will also stop any potential cool fronts from entering our state.  Extended summer will roll on.

TODAY:  Storms will be widely scattered, at best… not more than 20-30% coverage.  Partial sunshine.  Plan on another humid day with highs in the mid to upper 80’s.  There are lots of big home football games in the state today, including  Bama at 11:00AM, Auburn’s homecoming game at 3:00PM, and Troy plays at 2:30, to name a few.

NEXT FEW DAYS:    The best rain chance, in the week ahead, will be on Sunday, at 50/50.  But, after a wet week last week, the week ahead will feature few storms. In fact, by mid to late week, perhaps no storms, as the upper high ridge builds across the Gulf states and becomes stronger.

TROPICAL UPDATE:   Sub-tropical storm Leslie continues far out in the Atlantic.  Kirk has weakened to a Post Tropical Low pressure wave, in the hostile, wind shear environment of the Caribbean.   Yes, it is possible that someday, Kirk could experience “life after death” again.  Some of the models keep the hope alive into the west Caribbean.  We will monitor it’s future movement.  The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are quiet.

 

There will be another Blog update first thing Sunday morning. Have a nice weekend!

Rich

Weekend Forecast Update – Fewer Storms Around – FRIDAY Video

Good Morning!   Showers and storms, which have been quite numerous all week, won’t be quite as numerous today, and the storms will thin out more over the weekend.  Good  news at The Alabama National Fair comes to town and with a big slate of Football tomorrow.  We’ll take into next week, which could be a much drier week.  And, I have an update on the tropics…the latest on Kirk’s potential future.

 

Today, that southward moving front is still a player, but storms will not be nearly as numerous today as the last few days.  Highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

Storms will thin out over the weekend.  It will still feel like summer, even though it’s fall.  In the early and middle part of next week, as that upper high above us gets stronger, storms will be hard to find.   Rain chances will be small.

 

Tropical Storm Kirk has now made it into the Caribbean.  It may encounter some hostile wind shear which will weaken the system to a depression.  Will it make it all the way through to the western Caribbean?  Too early to say for sure.  Maybe.

More Widespread Showers/storms – Weekend Changes? – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!

The stage is set for another day of widespread showers and storms as a frontal system edges southward.  I’ll show you a very active and colorful Future Radar.  What about the weekend?  Will we still be dodging frequent raindrops?  I have “tweaked” the rain chances..and we’ll look well into next week as our pattern begins to change again.  In the tropics, Tropical Storm Kirk is the main story.  We’ll look into Kirk’s future track.

That front parked in north Alabama will be a big player today as it eases southward to the coast by Friday morning.  It will be the focus for widespread showers and storms again today.  Locally heavy downpours.

 

 

Over the weekend storms will still be roaming around, but they will thin out in number as upper level high pressure builds back over the region.  Temperatures will be hotter again.  This trend will continue well into next weekend.

 

The Tropical Weather Outlook map from NHC is a little bare this morning.  We don’t care about Post Tropical Storm Leslie.  Tropical Storm Kirk is the focus.

Tropical Storm Warnings continue as Kirk heads for the Caribbean Islands today.  Kirk may encounter a hostile environment over the Caribbean and weaken over the next several days.

If Kirk survives, could it some day be a problem in this part of the world?   Too early to say.

 

 

Front Brings Widespread Showers/storms – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!   An approaching frontal system will be the catalyst for widespread showers and storms today & tomorrow, and that may help knock the temperature down a few degrees.  I’ll show you a very colorful Future Radar.  What about the weekend?  I’ve eased the rain chances down a bit.  Storms may thin out.  I have your updated weekend forecast.  And, in the tropics, Kirk is showing signs of life again.  Could Kirk be a problem down the road?  I’ll cover it all in couple of minutes on your Wednesday morning personal weather briefing.

 

That approaching frontal system will be a big player in our forecast today and tomorrow.  The front actually stalls tonight and tomorrow, acting as the focus for widespread showers and storms across the area.  Locally heavy downpours.

The better normal rain chances for the next two days, start to slowly ease, as the number of storms starts to slowly “thin out” Friday through Monday.  Meanwhile, it gets hotter again.  Near or above 90 over the weekend and into next week, again.

 

Invest 98-L still has the chance to tease part of the southeast coast, nut the only other feature we care about in the Tropics now is newly regenerated Tropical Storm Kirk/

Kirk regained Tropical Storm status at 4AM CDT.  Tropical Storm warnings for the Caribbean Islands.   Kirk could weaken to depression status over the hostile environment in the Caribbean.    Will Kirk survive its trip through the Caribbean and later become a concern in this part of the world.  Maybe.  Don’t know.  Too far out. Models say maybe.