NEW YEARS EVE UPDATE – STORM SYSTEM  APPROACHING

Good morning!  Widespread dense fog across Alabama and adjacent states will make for tough travel through 9AM.  It should be a very warm last day of 2018.  A storm system on the way will bring in an increasing risk of rain and thunderstorms, especially by evening.  A few severe storms are not out of the question, especially west and northwest of the River Region, as a weakening squall line moves southeastward across the state.  There’s more rain ahead.  In fact, the risk of rain will continue through Thursday.

Here’s the set-up today.  Here’s the storm system which will adversely affect a lot of New Years Eve plans for much of the eastern US.

TODAY:  Dense fog advisory for much of the state till 9.  It’ll be a mostly cloudy day.  Becoming windy later.  South winds will increase to 10-15 and gusting as high as 30 mph.  High today in the low to mid 70’s.   Scattered showers are possible this afternoon, but the risk of showers and thunderstorms will increase this evening and tonight.  A weakening squall line enters the state this afternoon, and weakens as it heads into central Alabama between 7 and Midnight tonight.  A few storms will feature gusty winds to 35-40 mph.

FUTURE RADAR gives you sense of the squall line movement from late afternoon till Midnight as the line of storms weakens and heads southeast.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK?  The greatest severe threat today will be in Alabama’s far northwest counties. There is a “non-zero-tornado risk”.  Damaging wind gusts are possible.   A Marginal Severe Risk exists as far east as an Anniston, Clanton, Selma line, as the line of storms begins to weaken as it pushes east.  Here’s the threat map and the expected time line.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!:   If you’re going be at one of the outdoor celebrations at Midnight,  have the umbrella ready!

THE NEXT FEW DAYS:  The front moving through today, will stall in south Alabama. That spells more rain, at times New Years Day through Thursday.  The heavier rain will be in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  Sunshine and chilly air takes over Friday.  The weekend looks dry, and mild with lots of sun.

EXPECTED RAINFALL:  We sure don’t need any more rain.  Additional rainfall amounts could easily reach 1-2”…perhaps more, before the rain threat ends by late week.

DO YOU REMEMBER LAST year?  It was Bitter Cold.  Wind chill on New Years Eve was in the single digits.  The high on New Years Day was 33.  The low New Years Night was 18.   What a difference!

NEW YEARS WORLD WIDE:   Your New Years Eve outdoor plans should include umbrellas and ponchos. Future Radar, through Midnight, shows the eastward progression of a weakening squall line across the state this afternoon & tonight. A few storms across NW Alabama could be strong, with gusty winds

Our Weather App will keep you up to date on where the rain is this afternoon & tonight.   I hope you gave a Safe and Happy New Year!

Rich

SUNDAY UPDATE: Periods of Rain Through Thursday

Alabama is very soggy this morning.  Rivers and creeks are still running very high.  The stage is set for more rain over the next few days, as a series of storm systems affect the area.  Today’s rainfall amounts will be light. The Monday/Monday night storm system will involve thunderstorms, with heavier rainfall amounts.  But, the heaviest period of rain appears to be in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  It appears that sunshine will finally arrive, in abundance, along with colder temperatures, by next Friday, January 4th.

TODAY: Dense fog advisory until 9AM.  Like yesterday, rainfall will be rather light & spotty, with expected totals staying under ½ inch.  There will be many dry intervals.   It will be very mild, with a high near 67.  Tonight’s low 62.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT:  Monday will be an unusually warm day.  Highs will reach the mid 70’s As a large storm system approaches the area, south winds could gust to 15-25 mph.  It’ll be mostly cloudy with a few sun-breaks.  Thunderstorms will become more likely Monday evening and.  Monday night, as a weakening squall line moves across the state.

Here’s the map set-up on Monday.  SPC says some storms could reach severe limits across west and NW Alabama Monday evening, but the line of storms will weaken as it moves east.  This storm system will have a massive negative affect on National air travel as it moves eastward.

At Midnight, New Years Eve…it should be cloudy & mild, and 65° with a 60/70% chance of thunderstorms.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Following the Monday night storms, the risk of showers will continue on New Year’s Day, as the front stalls somewhere in central/south Alabama.  A wave of low pressure will move along the front Wednesday/Thursday with a surge of locally heavy rain.  FINALLY, a cold front moves through Thursday night with much cooler air.  Sunshine returns Friday.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS:  The future rainfall expectations are a little more reasonable now, but still troubling.   Any additional rainfall will continue to exacerbate the already saturated grounds and the bank-full river and streams.

FLOOD WARNINGS:  The Alabama River at Montgomery and the Tallapoosa River just east of Montgomery will peak above flood stage today with minor flooding expected.  A flood warning also continues for the Catoma Creek.  Many other Alabama rivers and streams are under a flood warning.  For more information, click here.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BMX

Have a good Sunday!  I’ll have additional updates through New Years Day.

 

Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Lots of Additional Rain Next Several Days

The last thing Alabama needs now is more rain.  But, unfortunately, we have several more days with rain in the forecast.  After this morning, it’s possible we may not see the sun again until next Friday, January 4,  if then.  Obviously, we’ve had a serious amount of rainfall in the last 48 hours.  There were water rescues in parts of our state.  Any additional rainfall would exasperate and already bad situation.  Concern is growing that more significant rainfall totals can be expected over the next 6 days.

ON THE MAP this morning, a new Low pressure system is developing in the western Gulf, which will ride northeastward today, tonight & Sunday.

TODAY:  :Patchy dense fog in spots.  Rain across south Alabama this morning will spread northward.  Rain will become widespread by later this afternoon and tonight.   High today 63.  North wind at 5-10.  Low tonight 55.

Here’s a couple of Future Radar snapshots.  Rain advances into central Alabama this afternoon and becomes more widespread tonight.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms from time to time Sunday.  Showers and storms become likely Monday. No severe weather is expected.  Rainfall could be heavy.  Rain threat for Midnight celebrations look pretty high.  More Rain on New Years day.  Then, a new surge of locally heavy rain is possible in the Wednesday PM/Thursday time frame.

HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN?:  Let me be clear.  ANY additional rain would be a very bad thing.  But, excessive rainfall amounts could create a serious additional flooding potential.  This expected rainfall map below, which is a blend of several models, could be a little underdone.  It suggests more than 3 inches of rain could fall over the next few days.

RIVER FLOOD WARNING:  The Alabama River at Montgomery is near flood stage this morning.(35 feet) It will go to about 3.5 feet above flood stage by tomorrow morning. Minor flooding is expected. Flood warnings continue for various rivers and streams across the state. Click here to find out the river levels in your area. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BMX

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I’ll keep you up to date with any changes as the New Years weekend unfolds.  Have a great Saturday!

Rich

Locally Heavy Rain Totals Next Several Days –– FRIDAY Video

Good Morning!  More heavy rain in the state again today, following drenching rain in the past 24 hours.  A few storms could reach severe limits.  On this video, we’ll look at the bigger problem.  A series of storm systems could keep rain in the forecast for at least the next 7 days.  I’ll show you how much additional rainfall could fall, and the potential for flooding.  Any winter air ahead?  Looks like coats may come back out after New Years Day.  There’s a lot of good information for you this morning on your Friday morning personal weather briefing.

Storm system #1 isn’t even done with us yet.  More potentially heavy rainfall.  Very mild.  Looks like a break in the action this evening and tonight before storm system #2 over the weekend.

Marginal Severe Weather Risk today covers all of southeast Alabama and part of central Alabama.  Damaging wind gusts are possible in the stronger storms.  Tornado risk is not zero.

Cabin fever.  Rain is in the forecast for at least the next 5 to 7 days.  Forget about sunshine.

On top of all the heavy rain which has fallen so far, we could see excessive future rainfall totals from a sedries of storms over the next 7 days.

Just through about 3AM in the overnight hours, this is what Doppler Radar storm total rainfall showed.  This is just the rain which has already fallen   There is SO much more rain ahead.

THURS PM UPDATE: Flash Flood Watch – Wind Advisory

THURSDAY PM UPDATE:  

Sharing a little new information on the potential rainfall  through Friday night.  Some spots in west and SW Alabama could see 4-6″.  Elsewhere in central Alabama, 3-5″ are possible.  Plus, there will be more over the weekend and early next week.  Total rainfall through the next 6 days will be excessive.

And, this is new.  The Storm Prediction Center has added a Marginal Severe Risk for much of central and South Alabama for Friday.  Damaging winds are possible in a few of the stronger storms.  A tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

 

HERE’S THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

Good Morning!  Get ready. There are not too many bright spots in the forecast.  Rain will be rather relentless for the next several days, as a parade of storm systems line up through the end of the year and into the New Year.  On this video, I’ll bring you up to date on the risks we’re facing, including the Flash Flooding threat. I’ll show you how much rain could fall.  Will there be any breaks between the storms?  We’ll look well into the first week of the New Year and beyond.

 

Rain and a few storms will be widespread today and tonight.  Attention travelers, this storm will have wide ranging implications, including a blizzard in parts of the Midwest and north central States.

Flash Flood Watch already covers a multi-state area.  Wind Advisory today and tonight for wind gusts as high as 25 mph.

SPC has outlined a severe weather risk which includes Alabama’s western and SW counties.  The stronger severe threat today continues over parts of Mississippi and Louisiana.

As storm system number one edges east tomorrow, storm system number two in the southwest states will bring another round of rain and storms to Alabama this weekend.

Rain is a good bet for at least the next SIX days, through the end of the year and into the New Year.

Rainfall amounts could be excessive with Flash Flooding possible.  The seven day totals on this map are on the conservative side.