Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon/Tonight

Good Morning! We are monitoring a Severe Weather Risk today, which has been expanded and now covers a big chunk of the state.  Damaging Wind Gusts are the main threat,  but tornadoes can’t be ruled out.  I have the latest on timing  and the updated threat level map, plus Future Radar.  After the storm system, get ready for not only a nice weekend, but a great string of days ahead.  Could we see our first 90 degree day soon?

Set up at 1PM.   Low near Memphis the Cold front in Mississippi, and the warm front advancing northward.

Most of us in a Marginal Severe Risk, as far north as Tuscaloosa, Wetumpka, Union Springs.  More Concerning is the Level 2 risk area covering much of southwest and south Alabama.  While damaging wind gusts are the main threat, tornadoes can’t be ruled out.  Main risk window from 1PM to 8PM.

 

Most of us could see .5 to 1″ rainfall, but much heavier amounts are possible on the coast.

 

An UPDATED Drought Monitor Map will be issued later this morning.

After a tiny threat of showers Friday AM, big improvements mid day and afternoon.  Perfect forecast for the weekend and beyond.  Could we see our first 90 degree high by Tuesday & Wednesday?

Showers end by mid day Friday, leading to a nice Beach Weekend..

WEDNESDAY UPDATE – Warm & Dry Today – Storm System on The Way

Good Morning! I’m on the road this morning.  This is just a forecast update.  There are no wholesale changes.  Today will be the last in a string of warm/dry days.  The storm system on the way will bring showers and storms to the area by late Thursday and Thursday night.  Although some parts of our state could see strong/severe storms, this does not appear to be a severe weather situation for most of us.  And, wait till you see the details of our beautiful weekend forecast!

TODAY:   Cloudy at times, mixed with filtered sunshine.  Warm.  Dry.  High near 84.  Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.  Mild tonight.  Low near 60.

LATE WEEK STORMS SYSTEM:  Simply put, the approaching storm system will have a southerly track.  This will, generally keep the stronger thunderstorm threat closer to the coast.  We like that.  Here’s the EURO model trend for Thursday night/Friday AM.

The Storm Prediction Center keeps a Marginal Severe Risk into southwest Alabama Thursday evening/Thursday night, through 7AM Friday AM.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS:  After the storm system departs, we have a text book perfect weekend forecast!

BEACH FORECAST:  Stormy Friday!   But, then, get ready for a really nice weekend.  The Gulf water is till chilly.

Hope you have a great day today. Everything is back to normal tomorrow, The next video will be online by 4:45AM Thursday.  Enjoy another

TUESDAY BLOG UPDATE – Warming Trend Continues – Late Week Storm System

Our remarkable warming trend continues today.  We had 78 Sunday, 82 yesterday and we should be in the mid 80’s today.  We do have a storm system to deal with by late Thursday into Friday.  Will there be any severe storms in the state?  That’s up for debate.  More details on that below.

You will LOVE the weekend forecast.  Keep reading…

Here’s the set-up today…..

TODAY:   Nice  day!  A good bit of sunshine.  High in the mid 80’s .  Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph.  Mild tonight, with increasing clouds.  Low near 60.

LATE WEEK STORMS SYSTEM:  The two key global models continue to disagree on the track on the low pressure storm system.  The GFS has a weaker low, tracking closer to the Gulf coast.  That would keep the stronger thunderstorms near the coast and into the Gulf.

The EURO model, on the other hand continues to hang tough. It has  the low pressure tracking  across the northern part of the state.  That’s a little more concerning as far as the storm threat.

The truth probably lies in the middle.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Severe Risk covering much of southwest Alabama Thursday night through 7AM Friday morning.  We’ll see if they adjust their outlook as we get closer to this event.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS:  Warm and dry today and tomorrow with highs in the mi 80’s.  A few showers could pop up as early as Thursday afternoon, but showers and storm are more likely on Thursday night into Friday.  Right now, a couple of stronger storms are not out of the question with this storm system, but I don’t expect any widespread severe weather, based on what we know now.

Next weekend, looks GREAT!!    Looks a couple of nearly perfect days!   Highs into the 80’s.

POLLEN UPDATE:  Medium to high tomorrow through Wednesday.  Medium range Thursday

Hope you have a great day today. I’m on the road later this morning, briefly.  There will be another Blog Update early WEDNESDAY AM.  The next video will be Thursday morning.  Have a great day!

Rich

Warming Trend Underway – MONDAY Video

Good Morning! Our amazing warm-up, which started on Easter Sunday, continues today. We have a nice string of days to start this week. Will this be the first week of Spring without severe weather? Maybe. Not sure yet. There is a storm system by late week, which I’m watching. So far the models do not agree on it’s track. I’ll bring you up to date on what we know.

 

Warming trend continues today.  After 78 on Easter Sunday…lower 80’s today and mid 80’s on Tuesday.

How will this next system evolve?  What track will it take?  Will there be any strong/severe storms?   The models are not agreeing on the solution.  We still have a few days to watch this.

String of nice warm dry day through Wednesday.  Showers & storms Thursday night/Friday.  Nice again Saturday.

Rainfall with this next system could total about an inch.  That’ll help our rainfall deficit  which is still just south of five inches for the year.

Hopefully we’ll see better news on the Drought Monitor may which will be updated on Thursday.  Recent rains last week could have, hopefully put a dent in the Moderate Drought.

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Perfect Easter – Warming Trend This Week

Happy Easter!  Sure, it’s chilly on this Easter Morning.  With temperatures in the low 40’s at sunrise, we’re at least 10 degrees too cold. (Sunrise at 6:09AM)  But, there will be a remarkable recovery during the day.  It should be nearly perfect.

Get ready for a string of nice days, which will encompass most of the week ahead.   The next storm system will affect the area by Thursday night into Friday.  So far, I see no indication of a severe weather threat.  I’ll keep you informed.

TODAY:   A Chilly morning.  Low 40’s for Easter Sunrise Services.  Sunshine today.  Remarkable afternoon recovery.  Nearly perfect.   High 77.  Cool again tonight.  Low 48.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   There’s a warming trend in our future.  After a chilly start Monday, we’re headed for the lower 80’s  Perhaps the mid 80’s Tuesday.  The next storm system will affect the area with showers and perhaps some thunderstorms by late Thursday night into Friday.  It does not look severe at this time.

BEACH FORECAST:  Moderate rip current risk today and tomorrow.  Otherwise, the Beach Forecast is getting a little warmer after a chilly couple of days.

POLLEN FORECAST:  Not as high as it was last week. Medium to high today and tomorrow.  Medium on Tuesday.

I’ll have a complete video update Monday morning.  We’ll focus in on the details of the week ahead. Happy Easter!

–Rich