Good Morning! The stage is set for another hot & humid day. And, THAT will be the breeding ground for scattered thunderstorms. Maybe even a couple of strong storms. Storms will be more numerous than yesterday. The daily rain chances will fluctuate during the week. On this video, I’ll update the day by day chances, and I’ll show you why we could see an big increase in the number of storms by the weekend.
Complex of thunderstorms moving into the state today will increase our rain chance.
SPC says some storms could reach severe limits. Marginal Risk south to Troy, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa line. Damaging wind gusts.m
Heat and humidity continue. Rain chances will fluctuate from day to day. Best rain chances will start Friday and continue over the weekend.
A trough or “weakness” in the upper atmosphere will help in the spike in rain chances by Friday through Sunday.
Relatively spotty rain chances during the week. The rain threat will grow much higher closer to the upcoming weekend.
Today will not be as turbulent as yesterday across Alabama. It will, however, continue to be Very HOT. For the third day in a row, the Heat Index will be very close to the 105 Danger Range. (Yesterday, Montgomery had a high of 95, with a Heat Index of 107). Thunderstorms will be more widely scattered in nature today. Even though there won’t be many storms, in this kind of heat, a few storms could be quite strong. Rain chances will get a little better Monday and Tuesday, with storms in somewhat better supply.
TODAY: Hot & Humid. High middle 90’s Heat index at or close to 105 this afternoon. Widely scattered storms. Low tonight 75. Light wind.
The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Severe Risk covering the far eastern counties, northeast & north Alabama. Damaging wind gusts possible in the stronger storms.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Rain chances get a little better early and mid week as a trough of low pressure approaches. Otherwise, continued HOT. Highs low to mid 90’s
BEACH FORECAST: High Rip Current risk through Monday. Moderate risk Tuesday. Otherwise, the rain chance will be small. Highs in the upper 80’s Heat index 100-104. Gulf Water 86.
THE TROPICS: Good news. The Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico remain very quiet, for at least the next 5 days.
It was certainly feast or famine yesterday. I had dinner in Elmore county, where there was 1.5 inches of rain. When I got home, the rain gauge at my house in East Montgomery showed 0.00. The airport had .03. Friends camping in Tallapoosa county dealt with a severe thunderstorm with 60 mph winds. That’s the kind of a wild Saturday it was. Scattered wind damage was reported around the state, especially in the northern half.
I’ll have a complete video update Monday morning, online by 4:45AM. Stay hydrated in this heat. Have a nice Sunday. I’ll see you in the morning.
A Severe thunderstorm Watch now covers north Alabama until 9PM. The watch extends as far south as Chilton, Coosa and Tallapooosa. Up to 70 mph wind gusts, and ping pong ball size hail are possible. A brief tornado can not be ruled out
EARLY MORNING UPDATE (5:45AM):
The big story today is the heat and humidity. Once again, we’ll be dealing with a heat index into triple digits. (Yesterday Montgomery’s heat index peaked at a dangerous 109, on the first day of summer) This kind of heat can also be the fuel for a few strong to severe storms. Some towns could see quite a show. Many towns will not see a storm. Keep reading…
Here’s the set-up. The front stretched across north Alabama and Georgia, will continue to act as a ‘conveyor belt’ for some strong storm clusters to ride southeastward. These pesky storm clusters (MCS), can cause a lot of problems with localized severe storms. These storms could affect us, in isolated cases this afternoon and tonight. (A similar cluster of storms moved through North and east central Alabama overnight. Some of you a noisy thunderstorm in the wee hours)
TODAY: Hot and Humid. High in the mid 90’s, again. The heat index will be 101 to 106. (100 begins the extreme caution range, 105 begins the Danger zone) Spotty thunderstorms will develop. (Probabilities will be roughly 30-40%) The stronger storms could produce damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph. A few severe thunderstorm warnings are possible. While, the greatest risk will be across the eastern counties, those of us in the central counties need to be watchful. The storm threat continues through about 10PM tonight. Our weather App will instantly alert you to a warning for your location, with push notifications.
The Dangerous Heat Indices will continue today across the Deep South.
NEXT FEW DAYS: Sunday I think the storms will be few and far between. We’ll be back to the mid 90’s again, with triple digit heat indices. Not much change Monday through Wednesday…scattered PM storms and highs in the low to mid 90’s. We are now 93 days until the first day of Fall.
BEACH FORECAST: Moderate Rip Current Risk through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80’s. Heat index 100 to 105. Water temperature is 86.
I will have another forecast update tomorrow morning. Have a nice weekend. Stay hydrated. Keep an eye on the radar on our Weather App. You can download it in the app store. Just search Rich Thomas Weather.
Welcome to Summer! The first HEAT ADVISORY has been issued for much of central and southwest Alabama. Dangerous Heat Indices of 103 to 108 are expected with this extremely high humidity. Stay hydrated and limit sun exposure. More triple digit heat indices this weekend
(Early morning update):
Welcome to Summer! It officially begins at 10:54 AM. The Summer Solstice. And, it will feel like summer, with triple digit heat indices. In fact this first weekend of summer will sizzle. What the storm chances? We’ll track a storm cluster all the way from Nebraska to Alabama. Plus, the Beach Forecast and a peak into next week.
Hot & Humid first day of summer, with mid 90’s and maybe some spotty storms daytime.
Could that Nebraska complex of storms slide into Alabama in the wee hours of tomorrow morning? Perhaps. Some strong, maybe even severe.
Heat index will be nearing the 105 danger range today and again Saturday and Sunday.
Triple digit heat indices highlight a very Hot & Steamy first weekend of Summer. Only widely scattered storms.
Even at the Beach this weekend, look for the Heat index to reach the 100 to 105 range! HOT FUN in the summertime.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe thunderstorm Watch for most of south and central Alabama until 9PM. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and perhaps large hail up to Golfball size are possible.
11:30AM UPDATE: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a Level 2 Severe Risk across south and part of central and eastern Alabama. Also, a Severe t’storm Watch is likely soon from central & SE Alabama to South Carolina. Large Hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threat. #alwx
EARLY MORNING UPDATE AND VIDEO:
Good Morning! Today’s atmosphere is a little volatile, and the stage is set for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon, with damaging winds & large hail possible in the stronger storms. I have the latest Future Radar, and the updated threat level from the Storm Prediction Center. Get ready for some intense weekend heat, on the first official weekend of summer. Will there be any cooling showers? And, and I have a sizzling hot Beach Forecast, on your Thursday morning personal weather briefing.
Storms redevelop this afternoon. A few Storms could be severe with damaging wind gusts and golfball size hail is possible. Stronger risk exists in the eastern counties.
Today’s high of 93 will be fuel for the fire for the afternoon strong storms. Very humid.
Sizzling hot first weekend in Summer with mid 90’s and dangerous heat index levels. Storms thin out.
Dangerous triple digit heat index levels Friday through Sunday
Even at the Beach this weekend, the heat index will be 100+. That sand will be HOT HOT.