All-Time Driest September – Record Heat Streak Continues – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  This month of September will go down in the history books as the Record All-time Driest in Montgomery.  Meanwhile, the Record High Heat streak reaches Day 6.  On this video, we’ll update the hot week ahead.  But, we’ll also look ahead to some GOOD news on the horizon.  Could we be about a week away from some RAIN and then, much cooler air?  I have some very encouraging news to share, finally, on this morning’s video.

 

Day Six of the Record Heat Streak today.  Our high of 100 will easily break the record of 97.

HOT and DRY through Friday.  Saturday will not be quite as hot with isolated storms roaming around.

The records continue to pile up.  Today is Day 6 of this string of Record High days.  This streak could continue through Friday.  Meanwhile today we’ll end the month of September with the All-Time Record Driest since weather records began in 1872.

Important pattern change early next week.  Cool Front brings much needed showers to the state Monday/Tuesday.  Much cooler air follows the front next week.

 

Let’s hope this works out.  Take a look the numbers behind the front, by the middle and later part of the week.  WOW.  Fingers crossed.

 

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Record Heat – Record Dry

What can I tell you new?  Today is Day 5 of this Record High temperature streak — a streak which could make it up to ten days straight.  We are about to end the month of September with an all-time driest record:  .05”.  Last year we had about 4 inches.  (3.99).  The rainfall prospects are not good through next weekend.  How long could this last?  Keep reading, I share a glimmer of distant hope.

Five miles directly above us, that strong upper level heatwave high remains anchored for the next several days.  It will start to flatten out a little by the end of the week.

TODAY:  Rain chance under 10%.  Sunshine, Hot & Dry.  High 97.  (Record 96 from 1904)   Light wind.  Low tonight 73.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Upper 90’s each day through Friday.  The record streak continues, at least through Thursday, and quite possibly Friday, too.  No rain.

We started this Record Streak on Wednesday when we tied the record with 98.  Thursday, Friday & Saturday we broke the record.  Today is day 5.

DROUGHT CONTINUES:  The rainfall outlook, through the next 7 days is bleak.

We are about to break the record for the all-time driest September which was set back in 1923.  The last rain at the Montgomery airport was September 1st.

In case you missed it…here’s the latest Drought Monitor map, showing 83% of the state now involved in some level of drought.  This map is issued every Thursday.

DISTANT HOPE?:   I hesitate to show you this.  Sometimes, the far distant global model solutions don’t pan out like we hoped.  But, I’ll make an exception.  Here’s the EURO model late Monday, October 8th, showing significant frontal system bringing rain to Alabama.  We HOPE this pattern pans out.  I’ll keep you updated.

TROPICAL UPDATE:  Hurricane Lorenzo, in the eastern Atlantic is lonely.  It’s the only player on the Tropical Map right now.  Lorenzo is due to have a direct encounter with the British Isles later this week…still as a tropical system.  Very rare.

FINAL THOUGHT:  This might bring a smile to your face.  SNOW.  Lots of snow.  A record September Snowstorm is underway in the Rockies.  Up to a foot to a foot and a half of snow and still snowing.  How about that?

I will have a video update for you first thing tomorrow morning at 4:45AM.   Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Drought Grows Worse – Extended Record Heat Streak

I keep hoping this is just a bad dream.  The bad dream will continue for several more days, I’m afraid.  There were some isolated showers in east Alabama yesterday.  There could be a couple more today, maybe.  After that, though, the upper high gets stronger and the rain chance evaporates for the rest of the week.  Friday was Day 3 of the Record High streak.  Incredibly, that string could reach 9 or 10 days!  And, the drought is getting worse.  The rainfall prospects are awful for the week ahead.  Details below.

Here’s the upper level heatwave high, which won’t budge.  It is responsible  for the record heat and the dry pattern.

TODAY:   I’ll put in a 10% rain chance here in Central Alabama, and maybe as much as 20% near the Georgia border.  Otherwise, blazing heat.  Not much of a breeze.  High: upper 90’s to near 100.  (Record 96 from 1986).  Low tonight 71.    Here’s a future radar snapshot at 5:PM this afternoon.

FOOTBALL WEATHER:  There are two big SEC games in our state today, involving the state of Mississippi.  The heat will be relentless in Tuscaloosa as Ole Miss comes to town for a 2:30 kick, with upper 90’s during the game.  The numbers are slightly better for the Auburn /Mississippi State game, but not fun.  It’ll be in the 90’s, for that 6:00 kickoff in Auburn.  I’ll put the Auburn rain chance at 15% in the first half.  Stay hydrated!  I’ll be watching on the couch, with the A/C on high.

RECORD HIGH STRING:  Today is Day Three of what could be an incredible  9 or 10 day string of back to back Record High temperatures.  Talk about re-writing the record book!  These records will stand for many, many years.

DROUGHT GROWS WORSE:  With 83% of the state now involved in some level of drought, the news for the next seven days is dismal.

We are almost certainly going to break the all-time Driest September Rainfall Record in Montgomery.  This is now Day 27 since the last measurable rain.

Here’s the current Drought Monitor.  Notice the Severe Drought which covers parts of Coosa/Tallapoosa counties, and down in the Wiregrass counties too.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Read it and weep.  Hot and Dry for several days with very little day to day change.

LONGER RANGE RELIEF?:  I can’t tell you when it will rain again, but I can give you a nugget of hope about some nicer temperatures beginning the second week of October. Two of the big global models agree…the Euro and the GFS.  We’ll see.  Keep your fingers crossed.

 

TROPICAL UPDATE:  Karen is no longer a tropical system.  Lorenzo is a large, powerful, major hurricane in the eastern Atlantic.  At the moment, it is the only player on the board.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend!   Pray for rain.

-Rich

Tiny Rain Hope – More Record HEAT Ahead – Drought Update –FRIDAY Video

Good Morning!  There were a few precious raindrops, here and there, yesterday, and again today, a couple of isolated showers could bring smiles, perhaps, to a few lucky towns.  I have the rain chance under 20%, but not zero.  BUT, the large scale drought goes on and its  getting worse.  We’ll look at the rain prospects for the next week, and beyond.  The other side of the coin is the Extreme Heat.  Yesterday we shattered the Record High with 100.  That’s only Day 2 of records.  This record string could easily continue for several more days, well into next week.  Will we get any help from the tropics?   I have the updated weekend details on your Friday morning video

 

Yesterday the coverage of isolated raindrops was about 10%.   Today perhaps 15% of the area might get a few drops.  Good luck.  Otherwise extreme heat.  High near 100.  Third day of record highs.

 

The Upper Level Heat Wave High will not budge for several days.  The total string of back to back Record High days could total NINE days, perhaps through Thursday October 3rd.  Unprecedented.

Not only very HOT, but also dry for the next several days.

New Drought Monitor Map shows 83% of the state in some level of Drought.  Severe Drought conditions exist in parts of Coosa, Tallapoosa and in parts of Southeast Alabama.  Many of us are in the moderate drought area.

The Rain prospects for the next seven days are dismal.

 

 

 

 

 

ENDLESS Summer – String of Record Highs–THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  Here we go.. Yesterday our record high temperature string began as we tied the 98 degree record.  Today, and for the next 5 days, at least,  New Record Highs will be established or broken.  Still we are DRY, and the rain prospects are not good.  I have the new 7 and 10 day rainfall outlooks.  Any help from the tropics?  Plus, I have a peek into the future.  Will there be some frontal relief on Fair Week?

 

The upper level heatwave high will stay in place for several days.  Today’s Record High of 94, from 2016 and 1984 and 1954) will EASILY be broken….following yesterday’s Record tying 98.

One of the Hi-res models prints out a couple of showers in East Alabama this afternoon.  Still though, I’ll keep the rain chance right at 10%.

Hot and Dry next several days.  Normal high is 85.  We’ll be in the upper 90’s which will break records and I’ll keep the daily rain chances at 10%…at best.

Yesterday’s Record tying 98 was just the start.  I think we will break or tie records for at least SIX days straight.

This map speaks for itself.  UGLY.  Depressing.  The 7 day rainfall potential from WPC.

Now 25 days with NO rain at the airport.  Headed for the driest September in Montgomery Weather history.  Records began in 1872.

In the tropics…only 2 players left on the map.  Cat 2 Hurricane Lorenzo will become a Major Hurricane and turn northeast through the East Atlantic.   The other storm is Tropical Storm Karen…with a very odd shaped cone.

Karen is a minimal Tropical Storm with 40 mph winds.  It’s northward movement will be stopped by building upper level high pressure.  This may make the storm pause and loop before heading westward toward the Bahamas.  It’s future health is in question.  It could weaken to a depression over the weekend.