Updated Weekend Forecast – Hurricane Isaias Update – Potential SE US Impacts – FRIDAY Video

Happy last day of July!  Our forecast, for the first weekend in August, actually looks fairly routine compared to the drama in the tropics. I have updated the detail for here and the Gulf Coast.   ISIAIS became a hurricane overnight and is heading for the Bahamas.  It will make a close encounter with Florida this weekend and possibly make landfall in the Carolinas.  And, Isaias is not the only thing we are watching in the tropics.

 

ISAIAS will become a 100 mph Cat 2 Hurricane in the Bahamas and then make a close approach to Florida over the weekend, and possibly landfall in the Carolinas by Monday night.

 

Fairly routine weekend Beach Forecast

Isaias is not the only thing in the tropics.  It’s getting busy.

Scattered Weekend Storms – Where is Tropical Storm Isaias Headed? – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  After widespread showers & storms Wednesday, gradually, the number of storms will start to thin out in number over the next few days, as July comes to an end and August ends.  I have updated the rain weekend rain chance for here and the Gulf Coast Beaches.  Meanwhile, all eyes on Tropical Storm Isaias.  Where is it headed?   How will affect the Southeastern United states.  I have the latest on timing and the new cone from the National Hurricane Center.

 

More scattered showers & storms today, but not nearly as many as yesterday.

Showers and storms start to thin out in number today..  Not nearly as widespread as yesterday.

Routine first weekend in August.  Tropical Storm Isaias should not have any effect on our weather.

As we continue to watch the tropics, it now appears unlikely that Tropical Storm Isiais will have any impact on the beaches from Gulf Shores to Panama City.

NHC continues to ease the cone on ISAIAS a little farther to the east.  More on the Atlantic side of Florida and not the Gulf side.  It will make a close approach to the state Saturday and Sunday, as a strong tropical storm, perhaps a little below the threshold for a Cat. 1 hurricane.

Some of the models are still LEFT in the Gulf, but most model tracks, thankfully, are shifting RIGHT.

More Scattered to Numerous Storms – Tracking The Tropics – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Once again today, all signs point to another active day with scattered to numerous showers and storms.  Storms will be slow movers.  There will be some locally heavy downpours.  But, there are signs that we will be returning to a more routine pattern by the weekend.  Storms will thin out in number and become more widely separated.  I have updated the rain chance for here and the Gulf Coast through the weekend.  That tropical system approaching the Windward Islands, which will eventually get the name ISIAIS. There’s more and more evidence this system will impact the Southeastern United States.  I have the latest forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center.

 

Once again today…showers and storms will be scattered to numerous.  There will be locally heavy downpours in spots.

Here’s one models idea of the storm coverage late this afternoon.

The trend will be for the number of storms to start to thin out in number over the next few days.  By the weekend, we should be back to a rather “routine” summer forecast.  Widely scattered storms.

The weekend Beach Forecast looks routine.  We will be keeping an eye on that Tropical System which will effect Florida.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely become a tropical storm, officially today.

The new Cone of Uncertainty covers Florida and almost touches SE Alabama.  It could be a 65 mph tropical storm late Saturday night, affecting south Florida.  Then what?

No doubt about it.  Most of the models suggest Florida will affected by a Tropical Storm this weekend. Then, perhaps, this system could skirt the southeastern US Coast.

Scattered to Numerous Showers & Storms – Watching the Tropics – TUESDAY Video

Good Morning!  The atmosphere is primed for action today. Showers and storms should become scattered to numerous today and tomorrow.  Some towns could see some locally heavy downpours. On this video, I’ll show you Future Radar.  But, by late week and into the weekend, the number of storms will start to thin out again, closer to a summertime normal.  I have updated the rain chances through Sunday.  Meanwhile, in the tropics, all eyes on Invest 92-L.  There is a strong chance this system will become a Tropical Storm in the next 24-48 hours.  Could it have a future impact for the United States?  Some models indicate it might.

Plenty of atmospheric moisture, combined with an upper level disturbance will set the stage for scattered to numerous showers & storms today.

Radar will be active this afternoon.  Locally heavy downpours.

Widespread showers and storms Wednesday.  The number of storms will start to thin out in number by late week and into the weekend.  Routine summer forecast this weekend.

Invest 92-L has not organized enough into a definable center, yet.

But, there is a 90% chance this system will become a Depression or Tropical Storm in the next 24-48 hours.

Today the spaghetti models have shifted left.  This happens to be the GFS Ensemble members.  It certainly suggests there could be an impact to the United States by late in the weekend or early next week.

Numerous Showers & Storms This Week – MONDAY Video

Good Morning!  Some of you got a lot of rain over the weekend.  The stage is set for better than normal rain chances for at least the next three days.  Tropical downpours will produce locally heavy rainfall this week.  But, not all week.  We’ll look ahead to the weekend.  And, in the tropics, we’ll have to learn how to pronounce the “I” storm.   Later this week we’ll be tracking ISIAIS. Could this storm impact the United States?  I’ll show you some projected paths.

Unsettled atmosphere.  Better than normal chance of showers and storms this afternoon and this evening.

Tomorrow and Wednesday…a “weakness” in the atmosphere over the Gulf South, will promote widespread showers & storms.

Future Radar may be a little bit underdone.  Look at that big cluster of storms affecting coastal Alabama and Mississippi.

 

Numerous thunderstorms through Wednesday at least.  Locally tropical downpours.

Looks like we will have to start practicing the name ISAIAS this week.  Good chance we’ll be tracking another Tropical Storm.  Invest 92-L has a 90% chance of developing into a Depression in the next day or two.

Could this system possibly impact the Unites States by this coming weekend…or beyond?