SUNDAY UPDATE:   Better Rain Chance in the Week Ahead – Near The Heat Index Danger Range Today & Monday

Good morning!   Rainfall coverage may be slightly better today.  Still, though, unfortunately, only about 30% of towns and neighborhoods will get lucky.

However, the news about the week ahead is getting better.  As you will see below, the prospects for getting wet will increase quite a bit.  Random storms will be most numerous Tuesday through Friday, and possibly beyond.  After a dry week last week, this is just what the doctor ordered. We sure need the rain.

We’ll be very close to the 105 Heat Advisory criteria today, and particularly tomorrow. Stay hydrated.

Here’s the set up this morning.  A weak front draped across north central Alabama will hopefully act as a focus for some scattered thundershowers.

TODAY:  Sun/cloud mix.  By afternoon…more clouds than yesterday.  HOT.  High 96.  Heat index peaking at 103 to 105.  Scattered afternoon & evening storms for a few lucky towns. Low tonight mid 70’s.  Here’s a Future Radar snapshot at 3PM.  Looks more generous coverage than yesterday.  Good luck.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  The rainfall probabilities speak for themselves.  Much better probabilities than last week, especially Tuesday through the end of the week.

A “weakness” or trough in the upper atmosphere will promote the better rain chances this week.

Hopefully a lot of communities will benefit from some nice downpours this week.

THE TROPICS:  Things are relatively quite at the moment.  NHC is tracking that Area to Watch in the tropical Atlantic, currently with a 29% chance of development in the next 5 days.  There are a number of tropical Waves we’re tracking from the Caribbean to Africa.

I’ll have a complete video update for you tomorrow morning.

Stay safe and well. Enjoy your Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  Hot August Weekend – Better Rain Chance Next Week

Good morning!  It looks like we are in for one of the hottest weekends of the summer so far.  Highs will soar to the upper 90’s and the Heat Index will be well into triple digits.

Although those random afternoon storms will be very isolated in coverage this weekend, hang on… The rain chances will get a lot better in the week ahead.  The Heat Dome over the state now will start to break down.  A “weakness” in the atmosphere will promote much better coverage on those afternoon storms, particularly Tuesday through Friday.

TODAY:   Very hot day.  More sun than clouds.  High in the upper 90’s.  Heat Index 101-105.  Widely scattered storms.  Roughly 20% coverage at best today and Sunday.  Low tonight 75.     This Future Radar snapshot at 5PM does not look too encouraging.

SUNDAY:  Very similar to today’s forecast, except the models are printing some very excessive Heat Indices on Sunday afternoon.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Lots of folks are looking for some rain, as are lawns are burning up after a week with few showers.  The rain chances start to pick up Monday.  By mid to late week the chances increase to 50-60% each day.  The storms will still be random of course, there will just be more to go around.

BEACH FORECAST:  If this is your weekend for the Beach..the news is good.  Showers will be few and far between.  Low rip current risk.  More sun than clouds.  Gulf water temperature is now 85.

THE TROPICS:  For the moment, things are relatively quiet.  There is one Area to Watch with a small chance of development.

But, in case you missed it, two disturbing forecasts came out this week.  One from the tropical experts at Colorado State.  The other from NOAA.  Both of them forecast an “extremely active” rest of the season.  The NOAA forecast is the most aggressive in numbers since they started issuing these outlooks 22 years ago.

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.   Stay safe and well.

-Rich

Sizzling Hot Weekend – “Extremely Active” Hurricane Season Expected – FRIDAY Video

Happy Friday!  As hot as it’s been lately, the weekend will be a little hotter.  And, like the last few days, any cooling showers and thundershowers will be few and far between.  On this video, we’ll look ahead to some better rain chances in the not too distant future.  And, the news about the rest of this year’s hurricane season is little disturbing.  I’ll show you a couple of updated forecasts that have certainly raised some eyebrows.

 

Isolated storms at best today.  HOT again… Triple digit heat index.

HOT weekend.  Upper 90’s  Only widely scattered storms through the weekend.  Better chances next week.

It’s a rather routine Weekend Beach Forecast and a pretty good one.  Low Rip current Risk is listed.

The Tropics at this moment are relatively quiet, BUT, that could change in a big way very soon.

Two updated seasonal Hurricane forecasts came out in the last 48 hours…one from Colorado State and the other from NOAA.  They are rather disturbing, and they are in agreement that the rest of the the hurricane season will be “extremely active”  We could run out of names like we did in 2005.  That year we had 25 named storms and to dip into the Greek alphabet.

Blazing Weekend Heat – Isolated Storms – THURSDAY Video

Good Morning!  If it’s not hot enough for you yet, it’s about to get a little hotter.  Our relentless Summer pattern rolls on.  Yes, there will be a few showers on the radar.  But, like the last few days, showers will be few and far between over the next few days.  On this video, though, I’ll show you when the rain chances will get better.  Out in the tropics, it looks like things are about to get busier again, as a series of tropical waves roll off Africa.

Another HOT day today with a Heat Index into triple digits and only a small rain chance.

Again today…showers will be few and far between.

HOT WEEKEND forecast.  Rain chances get slightly better Monday and Tuesday.

Pretty routine weekend beach forecast.

Although Invest 94-L seems to be fizzling,  we’re tracking a number of tropical waves between Africa and the Islands.  Are things about to get more active again in the Tropics?

Hotter Days Ahead – Isolated Storms – WEDNESDAY Video

Good Morning!  Get ready for more hot days, with not many showers on the radar.  Storms will be widely scattered today.  Showers will be few and far between form the next few days.  Hotter days are on the way for the weekend, as another one of those big Heat Domes builds and expands.  I have updated the weekend numbers for here and the coast.  And, we’ll check the tropics.

Weak frontal boundary over north central Alabama.  South of that boundary, some widely scattered pop up storms are possible

Hotter days ahead.  Upper 90’s this weekend.  Rain chances slightly better by Sunday and Monday.

Pretty good weekend beach forecast!

 

Isaias, now over Canada is still producing Tropical Storm force winds.  Invest 94-L is now fading in the Atlantic.