SATURDAY UPDATE:  Hurricane Dorian’s Track Has Nudged Eastward – Heat/Humidity Return to Alabama

Latest NHC Advisory and updated cone on Dorian has better for Florida…in that the models are keeping the center of the hurricane east of the coast.  However, Florida is NOT off the hook, and the danger is increasing for the Carolinas later next week.  Much more on Dorian below.  On it’s current track, Dorian will have little or no direct impact on Alabama’s weather, except to “dry out” our forecast starting early next week.  Storms will thin out and go away.  That’s a Dorian effect.  For now, heat and humidity have returned, along with the threat of spotty storms.

TODAY:   Lots of sun.  Hot day.   More humid.  (Dewpoints yesterday fell to the upper 50s/low 60’s. Today dewpoints of 70 or above return.)  Widely scattered hit or miss storms will be roaming around later.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Hit or miss storms will start to thin out by Labor Day Monday.  The “Dorian Affect” will be to remove showers from our forecast Tuesday through Thursday.  (Subsistence around the storm)  HOT days ahead…

HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE:  Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian is a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, located 470 mile east of Palm Beach, Florida, moving west-northwest at 12.  (Pressure 948 mbs.)

Based on most models, which have shifted east, the official NHC center line now keeps the center of Dorian east of the Florida coast.  However NHC cautions that Florida is not off the hook, and even with the center east of the coast there could still be significant problems…Like Matthew caused in 2016. While the news is BETTER for Florida, powerful Dorian may be on a collision course with the Carolinas later in the week.

Here’s a close-up of the Florida part of the cone with more detail on timing and expected strength.

Here’s the highly respected EURO model’s track for the next several days.  It continues to shift track to the east.  BETTER for Florida, but potentially awful for the Carolinas.

 

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:  There are two Areas to Watch on the map.  One is way out in the tropical Atlantic off Africa, with a 50% chance of development.  But, there’s also a new “X” on the map in the Gulf.  There could be something developing over the next few days in the west Gulf that we’ll have to monitor.


BEACH FORECAST:   If you are spending Labor Day weekend at the Beach…there will be some spotty “splash and dash” type storms around, but it has nothing to do with Dorian.  Should be a routine Labor Day Weekend at the Beach.

I hope you have an enjoyable Labor Day weekend!   I’m excited about FOOTBALL on my TV today!!

I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  Have a nice weekend.   I’ll keep you up to date on Dorian.

-Rich

Hurricane DORIAN UPDATE: Catdegory 4 Hurricane

 

 

 

7:40PM UPDATE:  

BREAKING. NEWS..Dorian now CAT4…. NHC: Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Dorian has strengthened to an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph #Dorian

4:00 FRIDAY (8/30) Hurricane Dorian Update:

Hurricane Dorian in a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds located 420 miles east of the NW Bahamas.  It is moving WNW at 9 mph.  It is expected to become at category 4 hurricane by tomorrow, and it’s expected to still be a category 4 hurricane as it arrives near the Florida coast early Tuesday. While some computer models have shifted their track to the east, this should be viewed with great caution.   Let me quote the latest technical discussion from NHC which suggests much caution:

“Given the collapse of the steering currents, the

track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly

uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the

core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep

it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very

consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward

turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could

occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland.  Given

this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little

to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for

additional adjustments to the left or right depending on future

model trends.”

 

Here’s the New NHC Cone:

 

Here’s a closer look at the Cone details in closer to Florida..

 

NEW EURO MODEL RUN:   It’s just ONE model run and you can’t hang your hat on one run…BUT the New Euro (12Z), with it’s eastern shift, has given hope to many in Florida. Could the center of Hurricane Dorian stay just east of the Florida coast? Too early to say, but a nice trend for sure

Here’s the American Global Model …the GFS.  It has also shifted quite a bit to the right (the east on its latest track) but it shows Dorian making landfall along the mid coast of eastern Florida and then moving northeast along the coast.  The GFS comes out every six hours.  The EURO, twice a day.

I’ll have MUCH more for you bright and early in the morning on your Saturday morning blog update, if not sooner.

–Rich

Hurricane Dorian Update – Will it Impact Alabama? – FRIDAY Video

10:00 AM UPDATE:   

No shocking changes in the new NHC Advisory/Cone on #Dorian. Winds still 110 mph. Still expecting a Cat 4 hurricane at landfall late Monday night.
Air Force RECON now reporting a closed eye. Dorian’s eye now clearing showing on the GOES visible satellite. Is Dorian entering a rapid intensification cycle? Wind 110 mph now. Category 3 status soon.
EARLY MORNING UPDATE:

Good morning!   We continue to enjoy our lower humidity levels.  After a comfortably cool morning, we have a hot day on tap, but still the humidity is under control.  Hit or miss storms return for the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.  BUT, All eyes are on Hurricane Dorian.  Dorian is forecast to be a nearly catastrophic hurricane when it arrives in Florida on Labor Day.  But what about Dorian’s Future track after Florida landfall?  Could it have an impact on Alabama’s weather?  I’ll show you various model solutions, along with the latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane, on this hurricane destined for the history books.  Plus…are worried about your Labor Day Beach trip?   I’ll show you what to expect.

 

 

Comfortable morning….HOT day, but still tolerable humidity.

Still the afternoon dewpoints are going to be very tolerable today.  Over the Labor Day Weekend the big humidity returns.

Hot, Humid Holiday Weekend…a few hit or miss storms.  Routine summer forecast.  BUT, what about Dorian’s possible impact towards mid week?   The forecast is subject to change depending on Dorian’s track.  Stay tuned.

One of the important global models we like to look at is the EURO (ECMWF)…It takes Dorian to the east coast of south Florida Tuesday morning and then sharp curve to the north raking the coastline.  An awful potential scenario.

 

 

Got a weekend Beach Trip planned but you’re worried about Dorian?   You should be OK through Labor Day.  Scattered storms at times, but no impact from Dorian yet.

All Eyes on Hurricane Dorian’s Future – THURSDAY Video

 

(10AM 8/29/19 Dorian Update)

Latest forecast cone from NHC is quite disturbing.  It shows Dorian reaching Category 4 status Sunday in the Bahamas and reaching the Florida coast as a Extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds on Labor Day Monday,  The Cone now is as far northwest at Tallahassee.

4

CONE Blow Up…

 

Good morning!   Have you been outside yet?  You can feel a NICE difference!  Today will be enjoyable with the lower humidity, and tonight will feel great as we go back down to the 60’s.  Summertime humidity will return of course, along with those random hit or miss storms for the Labor Day weekend.  BUT, the big story continues to involve Hurricane Dorian, and the future track of this monster storm.  The models simply do not agree on the details.   How could Dorian effect Alabama’s weather?   I have the updated track from the National Hurricane Center, and I’ll show you what could happen to Dorian after it reaches Florida.  This could be an extremely serious Hurricane for the Southeastern US.  All eyes on Dorian.

Our humidity break lasts through Friday.  Humidity and hit or miss storms are back for the Labor Day weekend.

Hurricane Dorian, with 85 mph winds will become a major Hurricane Friday, and then head for the Bahamas and perhaps arriving in Florida on Labor Day.

DORIAN will be a major Cat 3 hurricane when it arrives in Florida.

What happens to Dorian’s track after Florida?   The models disagree.  Stay tuned.

 

 

 

Front Will Bring Nice Brief Relief – Watching The Tropics Closely – WEDNESDAY Video

(10:00AM Wed 8/28 UPDATE)

GULP……

Concern is growing with Dorian’s new forecast cone.. NHC is now projecting  Major Category 3 Hurricane Dorian approaching the Florida coast in the Sunday/Monday time frame, with potentially 115 mph wind.

Many questions remain about the track and intensity, but the level of concern is growing. Where does it go after Florida? Good question…… ALL EYES ON DORIAN.

 

Good morning!   A frontal system moving through our state today will deliver some nicer air..  Best chance of showers will be in the southern half of the state today.  Cooler nights are on the menu for tonight and Thursday night and lower humidity for a couple of days.  But, hold the phone.  The Southeastern US may have an unwanted encounter with that storm named Dorian over the Labor Day Weekend.  What track will it take?  The models do not agree.  Will it affect US after Florida?  I have the very latest model data and the updated forecast cone from the Hurricane Center on your very interesting Wednesday morning weather briefing.

 

Frontal relief soon.  Maybe some morning showers then drier air follows for this afternoon and tonight.

How about a couple of nights in the 60’s and lower humidity days on Thursday and Friday?

The New NHC DORIAN Cone shows that Dorian could be a 100 mph Hurricane very near the Florida Coast by late Sunday night.  the cone has now swallowed all of Florida.  Then what?   Does it make a left hand turn or go to the right?

Models show VERY different potential tracks on Dorian’s Future position and intensity.  Here’s the Euro and GFS solution at 1PM on Labor Day.  Hundreds of miles apart.

These are the EURO and GFS Ensemble spaghetti model tracks.

 

 

Tropical Storm Erin…we could care less about.