SATURDAY UPDATE: Great Weekend – Heavy Rain Potential This Week – Severe Weather Risk?

Happy Leap Day! The weekend news is simply great!  The morning chill will fade into a nice afternoon recovery.  We’ll be close to seasonal normal. Sunday will be warmer as we tease 70.

The Warming trend continues Monday through Wednesday, but the trade off will be the risk for scattered showers returning.  In fact, a series of disturbances will drift through the area.  That will set up the potential for excessive rainfall totals across Alabama and the Deep South this week, again.   But, will we be dealing with a Severe Weather Threat by Wednesday?  That threat is unclear at the moment.  It’s dependent on many factors which are still unclear.

TODAY AND SUNDAY:   Sunshine will help the morning chill fade.  The average high for this date is 65.  Today I think we’ll be near 63.  Not bad!  Nice Day.  Chilly tonight…low 38. (Normal 42)   Warmer Sunday.  GREAT DAY, on the First Day of March.  High near 70.  Enjoy this great weekend.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The warming trend will continue.  Tuesday appears to be the warming day with mid 70’s.  Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday.  Greatest risk of heavier rainfall and potential thunderstorms Tuesday night, Wednesday until Thursday morning.  More on that below.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL – SEVERE WEATHER RISK?:   The details of the week ahead are complicated, as a series of Low pressure disturbances and fronts swing through the area.  Look at the rainfall potential map below.  Rainfall amounts could be rather significant on this first week of March.

But, what about the Severe Weather Threat?  Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk just west of us for Tuesday.  But, they are unsure about the parameters in our state on Wednesday at this time.  IF we do see severe weather, the best chance appears to be daytime Wednesday into Wednesday evening.  We will continue to closely monitor that potential as we get closer to mid-week.  Right now severe weather is a MAYBE.

Here’s the set up on Wednesday and Thursday.  The front that moves through early Thursday will end the rain threat.

 

I’ll have another Blog update for you in the morning.  Have a nice Weekend.  Happy Leap Day!

-Rich

Nice Weekend – Severe Weather Wednesday? – FRIDAY VIDEO

Good Morning, on a sub-freezing Friday morning.   If you have weekend plans, the news continues to look very positive.  Friday and Saturday will be cool and dry with a lot of sunshine.  Nights will continue quite chilly for now.  A warming trend begins Sunday.  I have tweaked the weekend details.  Sunshine will be dominate.

But, all eyes are on that mid-week storm system next week.  We continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe storms on Wednesday. I have the latest on the potential threat, timing, and the severe weather ingredients.

 

Quiet day today.  A little below normal temperature-wise   Breezy this afternoon.  Dry..

NICE weekend.  Cool sunshine Saturday.  Warming trend Sunday.  Into the 70’s Monday through Wednesday.  Threat of showers returns Monday.  Potential Severe weather threat Wednesday.

Models continue to “waffle” on the details of the severe weather potential, however, on timing, it does appear to be a daytime event Wednesday.

Some of the the severe weather parameters, like available energy or instability, along with other thunderstorm parameters continues to suggest we could see some severe storms Wednesday.  Will they be tornadic?  Details are still a bit sketchy, but we have a few days to monitor this potential threat.

Series of Dry Days – Cold Nights – Nice Weekend– THURSDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  Wind chill is a factor this morning.  Bundle up.  Today will be rather brisk, but sunny.  How would you like at least 4 dry days in a row?  The nights will be cold, but I have a great weekend forecast, including what looks like a spectacular Sunday.  There’s a major warming trend in our not too distant future.  BUT, a potentially potent storm system next week has my attention.  There appears to be a growing threat of Severe Weather.  I have the latest on timing.

 

A BRISK DAY today…but the sun will be out.  WAY too chilly for the end of February.  The wind will add a bite.

Coldest morning will be around Dawn Friday.  Upper 20’s central Alabama, Near 30 near the Florida broder.

Lots of sunshine today through Sunday.  COLD nights,  but, dry for several days.  Chance of showers begin around Monday.  Big warming trend Sunday through the middle of the week, ahead of a big deal storm system which could be severe.

That Mid-week storm system certainly has my attention.  Potentially Potent, and most likely a Severe Weather Threat.  Ityneeds to be watched.   We have a few days to monitor it.

Sharply Colder Air Ahead – Dry Weekend – WEDNESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  An Arctic Cold Front sweeps through the state today.  There could be a couple of isolated showers along the front.  Get ready for another big temperature drop, as chilly air engulfs the area by this evening and tonight.  Wind chill will be a factor.  On this video, I’ll fill in a series of temperature ups and downs over the next week.  I have updated the weekend details.  Plus, we’ll check out a potentially potent storm system next week.

As the arctic front sweeps through the state today, a few spotty showers are possible.  Then windy and much colder by this evening and tonight.

WIND CHILL will be a factor early tomorrow morning.  Dress in layers.

These are actual lows on Friday morning at Dawn.  Upper 20’s possible in central Alabama.

A dry series of days.  Warmer Sunday and Monday.  Chance of a few showers by Monday.

Storm System Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Potential Severe Weather Event?   Maybe…  It has my attention.

Sharply Colder Mid to Late Week – Extended Series of Dry Days – TUESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  The risk of showers will end early, as the first Cool Front slides southeastward. Look for a mainly dry and mild Tuesday.  But, we are in for a t sample of some Arctic Air by late Wednesday, through Thursday and Thursday night.  In fact,  another front late Friday will deliver another brief Arctic  “set-back”.  I have tweaked the forecast.  I’ll bring you up to date on timing and the details through the weekend.  We could put together at least 5 dry days in a row!  I’ll also show you what could be an important storm system next week.

Showers exit early today.  Much of this day will be mostly cloudy and mild.

Another cold front sweeps through the state tomorrow afternoon.  It has arctic air behind it.  Sharply colder.

MUCH Colder Wednesday night, Thursday and Thursday night.  Then, another re-enforcing shot of chilly air arrives Friday night through Sunday morning.

Potential big deal storm system about a week away… Potentially severe storms?  Don’t know yet.  Maybe…

GFS trends show our big mid-week/Late week temperature set-back.  Then it idicates a big warm-up next week, followed by another Arctic Plunge around March 7th.