Late Week Storm System Ahead – TUESDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  Happy New Years Eve!  The Year 2019 should end on a nice note.  Trouble-free for us, while others in the East deal with a Big Storm.  What’s next?  We’re monitoring a Gulf Storm System which threatens to bring soaking late week rain to a big chunk of our state, and possibly a severe weather threat to some areas.  I’ll break down the details on this video, and we’ll look ahead to big cool-down for the first weekend of 2020.  When will the next Arctic Air arrive?   We’ll peek into the long-range horizon.

 

While a big chunk of the nation is dealing with a Major Storm on this New Years Eve, our weather should be pretty nice!

New Years Midnight, will be not far from average…clear skies and a temperature near 39. Happy New Year!

Our next significant storm system. Gulf Low pressure system will move northeast into Mississippi and then into northwest Alabama Thursday and Thursday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has added a Marginal Severe Risk covering much of south and SW Alabama Thursday.  Damaging wind gusts are the main risk, but a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. We’re watching for future adjustments to the outlook area.

Some parts of the state could see some rather soaking rainfall totals.  Heaviest rain in Alabama will be across north and NW parts of our state.

 

 

 

Much Cooler Days and Cold Nights – Late Week Storm System – MONDAY VIDEO

Good Morning!  ..Big change of reality today… We’ll be about 20 degrees colder today.  After record highs in the upper 70’s yesterday, we’re back closer to normal today with highs in the 50’s  And, we haven’t been in the 30’s for awhile, but it looks like we’re headed there for the next two nights. What’s next?  In this video, I’ll update you on the first big storm system of the year 2020.  It’s on the way later this week.  I’ll also show you some even colder air on the horizon.

After a record high of 77 yesterday, we may not make it out of the 50’s tonight.  Headed for the 30’s next two nights.

Looks like a very routine New Years Eve forecast.  Not TOO cold.  Relatively normal.  DRY!

Dry and pretty nice New Years Day.  Wet & stormy Thursday into Friday.  Much cooler by Saturday.

The first storm system of 2020 will bring drenching rains and thunderstorms to the state Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday.

Rainfall amounts could be significant in spots.

SUNDAY PM: Severe Weather Threat in Alabama Tonight

A tornado now covers extreme west and northwest Alabama until 9PM.  Threat of severe storms with damaging wind gists to 60+ mph.  A few brief tornadoes are possible.

EAST of the WATCH area, a Marginal Severe Risk covers the area as far east as a Talladega, Montgomery Greenville line through Midnight, as a line of thunderstorms moves eastward.  By about Midnight, with the line perhaps near or just past I-65, the severe potential should rapidly diminish.  East Alabama should be off the hook.

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EARLY MORNING UPDATE:  

Good morning!  Our very warm December airmass is still in place.  Highs in the mid70s today, with dewpoints in the “juicy” 60’s will lead to storm development this afternoon, especially in the west half of  the state this afternoon.  Then, tonight, a line of storms will march across the state along a Cold Front, which will bring a screeching halt to our string of days in the 70’s.  The cooler air that follows, for New Years Week, will actually be closer to normal for this time of year.

TODAY & TONIGHT:  Showers are possible anytime today.  But, the better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will begin this afternoon, and will continue through the evening and tonight.  More on the Severe Weather Threat below. Breezy today.  South winds 10-16 will gust to 20.  High today 74.  Colder by late tonight.  Low 51.

MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT:  This will be a “low end” severe weather threat in Alabama today and tonight, The Severe Threat could begin as early as about 2PM in the western strip of counties.  Individual thunderstorms will develop west of I-65, some of which could become severe, with damaging wind gusts 60+ mph.  Brief tornadoes are possible.  That’s phase one of today’s threat.

Phase two, involves a line of thunderstorms, along the cold front tonight which will march eastward reaching roughly the I-65 corridor at Midnight. Again, damaging wind threat to 60_+ mph appears to be the main risk, but even with the line, an embedded brief tornado or two can’t be ruled out.

By about Midnight, with the line perhaps near or just past I-65, the severe potential should rapidly diminish.  Therefore, on this graphic from NWS Birmingham, notice how they indicate that the eastern counties have been removed from tonight’s Marginal Severe Risk.  I am totally onboard with this assessment, that the line will begin to lose its severe potential by about Midnight, and east Alabama should be off the hook.

Even beyond the counties covered by the Birmingham Weather office, the wider threat of a few severe storms extends into south Alabama as well, as far south as a Troy/Monroeville line.  This is the threat area outlined from the Storm Prediction Center.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Behind the front, Monday will be about 15 degrees cooler.  We will be in the 30’s on Monday night and Tuesday night, as the year 2019 comes to a close.  Another storm system will bring  a showers threat perhaps late New Year’s Night, but more likely Thursday and Friday.  Too early to talk about any potential severe weather threat.

NEW YEAR’S EVE FORECAST:  New Years Eve in Montgomery, and around the area, will be uneventful, and typical for any New Years Eve night, based on averages.  Skies will be mostly clear, and the Midnight temperature will be near 38.  Wind chill should not be a factor.  Most of New Year’s Day should be dry with highs in the upper 50’s Near normal.

BAILEY’S GOOD SATURDAY:  Thanks for your continued support, and interest on my dog Bailey’s health!

That 24 hours in ICU Thursday really did wonders.  It perked her up quite a bit.  Yesterday, especially, she was eating, walking, and feeling pretty good.  Visits from good friends brought a lot of smiles.  She was her regular self.  We’ll take each day one at a time.  Each day is a gift.  We have an appointment with her cancer doctor tomorrow morning.  It will be great to meet Dr. Smith, and to get her assessment on Bailey’s prognosis.

Look at this great Bailey smile, during a visit from our great friend Greg Budell.

Stay weather aware today, especially by this evening and tonight.  Our weather app will keep you up to day, and will instantly alert you to any watch or warning for your location.  You can download it in the App store, by searching Rich Thomas Weather. I will have a video update for you first thing tomorrow morning. It should be online by about 4:45AM, or thereabouts.   Have a nice Sunday!

–Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:   Sunday Storm System – Few Severe Storms  Possible – Then Colder

Good Morning!

Our remarkable string of very mild December days continues.  Today will be the fifth day of 70+ degree highs.  Not bad in late December!

You could run into a brief showers or two today, but the Main Event will be a rather impressive Sunday storm system which will bring in a round of showers & storms Sunday, and even more likely Sunday night.  Below, I’ll update you on the Severe Weather Threat with this system.  Then, get ready for some MUCH cooler air behind the storm system.  But, actually, the cooler air that follows will be closer to normal for this time of year.

TODAY:   It will be mostly cloudy, but the warm pattern continues. I can’t rule out a few peeks of sunshine.  I expect a high in the lower 70’s again.  Spotty showers will be roaming around.  Your chances of seeing one are about 20-30% daytime and 30-40% tonight.  Very mild tonight.  Low 64.

Here’s a Future Radar snapshot for late this afternoon, just to instill the idea that the showers will be very isolated in nature.

SUNDAY STORM SYSTEM:    All of the state is in a Marginal Severe Risk on Sunday.  Having said that, the area from I-65 westward has the highest odds of seeing a few severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts.  Tornadoes can’t be ruled out.  During Sunday afternoon from 1 to 6, the western half of the state could see a few supercells thunderstorms develop.  Some could become severe.  Rotating storms could drop a tornado or two.  Later, Sunday evening and night, a “squall line” will swing through the state.  Again, damaging wind gusts to 60+ mph are possible and tornadoes can’t be ruled out. By about Midnight, the threat should have diminished.   Here’s the Sunday set-up, and the Marginal Severe Threat Map from SPC.  This storm will also bring a variety of Winter Weather in the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes.  That could have a major impact on Holiday travel.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Following the Sunday storm system, expect  a big temperature drop to close out the year.  Highs will fall to the 50’s.  We’ll be in the 30’s Monday night. I have now added a tiny rain chance late New Years Eve night after Midnight and about a 40% New Years Day.    Next storm system will begin to affect the area by Thursday and Friday..January 2nd, and 3rd.

BAILEY IS HOME NOW:  I took my dog Bailey home from ICU at Carriage Hills Hospital yesterday.  She’s glad to be home and I am so thrilled she is beside me on our couch.  I am going to continue to keep her comfortable, and  as happy as possible over the coming days.  She’s a good little girl, and we’ll deal with one day at a time.  Here’s a snapshot just before we left ICU yesterday.   Thanks again for all your kind messages.  I’ll do my best to take care of her.

Have a nice weekend!   I’ll have another Blog Update in the morning.

 

-Rich

FRIDAY UPDATE:   Sunday Storm System – Big Temp Drop Behind the Storm

Good Morning!   Instead of a video this morning, I have this blog update for you.  I’ll have some updated news about Bailey later in this blog post.

First, let’s talk weather.  We have had a remarkable Christmas week of comfortable, unseasonably warm temperatures.  Today, Saturday & Sunday we will be near or above 70 again, before a big temperature drop on Monday.  Rain chances will be tiny today and Saturday, a little better Saturday night, but the main event will be Sunday Evening & Sunday Night, as a strong cold front approaches, bringing a round of showers and storms, and at least the possibility of a few strong/severe storms.

TODAY:   It should will be another very mild December.  Mostly cloudy.  There will be a couple of showers on the radar mainly from I-65 westward.  I’ll keep the rain chance under 20%.  High today near 70, perhaps a tad above.  Low tonight 56.

Here’s a Future Radar snapshot, showing a few isolated showers, perhaps, popping up this afternoon.  Your chances of seeing one are very tiny.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Saturday will be much like today.  Mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  Better chance of showers late Saturday night.  Showers and thunderstorms become likely Sunday and Sunday night.  Sharply colder Monday.  I have now removed rain from the forecast for New Years Eve and New Years Day.  The better rain chances will probably hold off until Thursday and Friday, January 2-3.

SUNDAY STORM SYSTEM – SEVERE?:   The timing on the Sunday system is slower now.  Showers and thunderstorms will begin in the west Sunday afternoon, and spread eastward Sunday evening and Sunday night.  There will be enough instability for some stronger storms, possibly reaching severe limits.  A Marginal Severe Risk now covers the area.  The main time window appears to be from 3PM to 9PM.  (That will be refined as we get closed to the event.)  Damaging wind gusts to 60+ mph will be the main risk.  A couple of tornadoes are not out of the question.  It appears that a slightly higher risk will be west of I-65.

Here’s the map set-up at 6PM Sunday evening.

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, has most of the area in a Marginal Severe Risk on Sunday.

BAILEY NEWS TAKES A TURN FOR THE WORSE: 

First, Thank YOU! I am simply overwhelmed and gratified of the outpouring of well wishes, support and prayers for my dog  Bailey. I waited close to 8 days for a pathology report on her biopsies. 

   She has spent yesterday and last night in ICU at Carriage Hills Animal Hospital.  I got some pretty awful news yesterday about a very aggressive form of cancer. The cancer is in the lymph nodes and in the liver. They didn’t sugarcoat the prognosis. It’s not good. Nevertheless, we’re doing what we can, and prayers are powerful.  I have some important decisions to make about her future, and the correct course of action.

Again, thank you for keeping her and us in your thoughts and prayers.  It’s difficult, and many of you who have gone through this  understand how tough certain decisions can be.  I last went through this with my dog Skyy in 2012.  Bailey and I have been together for 7 years now.  She’s a rescue from MHS.  She might have been two when I met her 7 years ago.  Her age is unknown.  She had a tough early life, but her life, and my life, got a whole lot better when we met at the shelter.

Here’s Daddy saying goodnight to her last night in ICU.  That smile was the result of a steroid shot that perked her up a bit.  Smiles have been rare lately. Her formerly blue eye is now yellow.  A result of the cancer affecting her liver.

I’ll have additional blog updates over the weekend.

 

–Rich