New Year’s Eve Blog Update: New Years Storm System – Severe Weather Threat Tonight

Good Morning!  On this last day of 2020, expect another warm day.  We had 75 in Montgomery yesterday.  We’ll be in the 70’s again today, but big changes are on the way.  A significant storm system is approaching, as 2020 ends and 2021 begins. 

    The timetable of the storm system is slower now.  The risk of showers and storms will continue for much of Friday, until the storms move east into Georgia.   Most of the state remains in a severe weather threat beginning late tonight and well into Friday.

TODAY:   Mostly cloudy, breezy and warm.  High in the low to mid 70’s   Scattered showers possible by this afternoon and this evening.  Overnight tonight, temperatures will be in the very mild 60’s, as the storm threat increases.  It will become windy.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT:  The approaching storm system and frontal system is moving slower now.  The threat will begin around Midnight in the far west and southwest counties, and exit extreme east Alabama by about 1PM Friday.

The Storm Prediction center shows a greater Level 2 threat for severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes over much of west Alabama, (west of I-65) through 6AM Friday.  Then, for the rest of Friday,  through early afternoon, a Marginal Risk covers much of our state.

The Birmingham NWS office has a slightly different take on the threat level.  They extend the Level 2 risk to include much of southeast Alabama as well, as potential storm redevelopment occurs during the daytime heating on Friday.  I agree with this assessment.  The greatest threat of a few brief tornadoes would be along and south of the US 80/I-85 corridor.  Notice the very helpful timeline of their graphic.  They show much of central Alabama in a 4AM to 10AM window, with storms exiting the state by about 1.

FUTURE RADAR:  Here’s a Future Radar loop which covers the timespan from 11PM till 2PM Friday.  Note some of the strong cells from Midnight through the morning hours in west and SW Alabama.

 Here’s a 2AM snapshot.  It’s these discrete cells, well ahead of the main front, which could start to rotate and produce tornadoes.

Expected rainfall amounts are not concerning.  No flood threat is expected.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   News Years night will be dry.  A few showers are possible Saturday as a brief disturbance brushes by the area.  Sunday will be nice, but a little cooler.  Coldest night will be Sunday night.  Another warming trend begins Monday & Tuesday.

Here is the final tranquil sunset of this truly terrible year, for all of us. A Toast to better days in 2021! Happy New Year!

Chase and I will be headed back northward later this morning.  I’ll be in place for any potential severe weather tonight and Friday.  I’ll have updates as needed.

 Make sure you have our weather app on your phone or tablet.  It will instantly alert you to severe weather Watches and Warnings for your location.  Go to the app store and search Rich Thomas Weather.

Chase and I enjoyed our brief but very nice stay here in paradise.  Happy New Year to you and your family!

–Rich

WEDNESDAY Blog Update: New Years Eve Storm System – Severe Weather Threat

Good Morning from the Alabama coast! 

TODAY:   Sun and cloud mix. Very mild, again.  High 71. Partly cloudy and not as cool tonight.  Low 55.  Can’t rule out a stray shower overnight.

NEW YEARS EVE STORM SYSTEM:  A potent storm system moving northeast out of Texas.  Showers and storms will be scattered across the area Thursday afternoon, and evening. The main event will be later. The timing is awful.  The main band of showers and storms will move through state in the overnight hours of New Years Eve through the early hours of New Years morning. 

Some of the storms will be strong to severe.  Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible.  The primary window for severe weather will be about 10PM in the western counties until about 9AM Friday in east and southeast Alabama.  Happy New Year.  Here’s the updated outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.  This outlook ends at 6AM Friday.

Here’s the SPC Severe Risk after 6AM Friday…covering southeast Alabama. 

FUTURE RADAR:  This is the NAM Model loop from Midnight to 8AM.   The first 8 hours of the year 2021. 

Many towns will get a good soaking.  Heaviest rainfall will be in south and southeast Alabama.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   After the rain moves out by mid-day Friday, the rest of New Years Day will be dry and mild.  I’ll leave in a tiny rain chance Saturday as a little disturbance brushes by the area.  It will be mild Saturday, but a little cooler Sunday.  Coldest night will be Sunday night. 

There’ll be another Blog Update tomorrow Morning.  Enjoy today’s nice weather.  Chase and I are going to enjoy another nice day on the Alabama coast.

–Rich

New Year’s Eve Storm System – Severe Weather Threat

Good Morning!  Dense Fog Advisory this morning. The news is very good in the short term.  The warming trend continues.  Today and Wednesday will be tranquil and mild…very nice for late December.  But, a formidable storm system will arrive before 2020 ends on Thursday night.  Severe weather is also possible.  The timeline has changed.  I’ll bring you up to date on the details and we’ll look ahead to the weekend.

After the morning fog issues…NICE day today! Mild for December. Great day…

New Years Eve storm system will brings showers and storms to the state by Thursday evening / Thursday night. Stormy end to 2020. Severe weather threat. The time line now extends until Friday morning.

The adjusted severe weather outlook through Friday morning at 6AM shows the threat expanding eastward to a Tallassee Troy line by Dawn. Level 2 slight risk west of a Selma/Greenville line. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

Could be up to to 2″of rain in spots.

The air that follows the storm system is NOT Arctic air this time. The weekend will be cooler, but not cold.

Warming Trend Continues – New Years Week Storm System

Good Morning!  We are in for a couple of really nice late December days before a vigorous New Year’s Eve storm system arrives.  Our morning chill today will fade quickly.  We’ll be well into the 60’s today through Wednesday.  The Thursday storm system needs to be watched.  It could bring round of Severe Weather to Alabama and the Gulf south.  On this video, I’ll brin you up to date on the timeline and we’ll look ahead to the New Years Weekend forecast, which looks cooler but nice.

Weak front will have little or no effect on our weather today. Nice way. Warming trend continues. Not as cold tonight.

NICE Tuesday and dry and mild Wednesday. Showers and storms Thursday, Thursday night, ending Friday morning.

Potent New Year’s Eve storm system. Showers and storms Thursday, Thursday night, ending Friday morning. Possible Severe Weather situation. Cooler behind the storm system but no Arctic air this time.

This storm system could bring a significant severe weather threat to the state by Thursday afternoon or more likely Thursday night, including the threat for tornadoes.

Cooler behind the storm system but no Arctic air this time. The FRIGID air stays locked up in Canada where it belongs.

SUNDAY UPDATE: Warming Trend Begins – Mid-week Storm System

Good Morning!  After another very cold start, there is good news ahead.  A nice warming trend begins this afternoon and continues into Mid-week.

   The biggest news in the week ahead, involves another storm system which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the state, before yet another big temperature plunge.  (not quite as severe as the Christmas plunge)

TODAY:  It should be a great day today.  Lots of sunshine.  Great afternoon temperature recovery, after a cold start. High near 60.  Not quite as cold tonight.  Chilly, though…Clear sikies. .low 36. 

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Nice warming trend continues Monday through Wednesday.  Highs in the 60’s.  Showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.  Sharply colder again behind the storm system.  

NEW YEARS WEEK STORM SYSTEM:  Showers and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday evening/night into Thursday.  Sharply colder again behind the storm system.  It’s not no known yet, whether this will be severe weather producer or not.  ‘Tis the season.  Stay tuned for more.

Have a GREAT Sunday! I’ll have a complete video update in the morning. 

–Rich