Cold front Brings Showers & Storms, Then Cooler– Wednesday Video

Good Morning..on the last day of Meteorological Winter.  (Dec 1-Feb 28 on the weather calendar)  The first of 2 fronts affects the state with scattered showers today.  The second front tomorrow, the cold front could bring strong storms to parts of our state.  I’ll have the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.  Much cooler air is on the way.  I’ll show you the temperatures for that first  weekend of March, which will feature some chilly nights.  Plus, we will peek into the middle of March.  The temperature slide will continue.

The most concentrated rain will be across north Alabama today, but all of us will see a risk of showers with a northward moving warm front.

The big weather maker tomorrow is the cold front which will slide southeastward with a line of showers and storms ahead of it.  Warmest temp will be in the morning, with falling temperatures by afternoon.

 

Today the severe threat is mostly west of our state from north MS to the Arklatex region, through 7AM Thursday.  The Thursday shows parts of east Central AL in the Marginal Severe Risk area.  A new outlook will be issued by SPC at 11:30 and this area could be expaqnded.

After the Cold Front moves through Thursday, the stage is set for a nice first weekend of March with cool days and chilly nights.

The Euro shows 2 storm systems over the next 6-7 days, and it shows a trend to cooler, than colder next 10 days.

The extended outlook from the Climate Forecast System (CFS), shows the temperature slide continues as we get deeper into the month of March.

 

Nice Today – Mid Week Storm System Ahead– Tuesday Video

Good Morning!   What a nice day we have to look forward to today.  But, more weather changes are on the way with a 2 part storm system Wednesday and Thursday.  Can we expect any severe weather?  How cool will we get behind the front?  I have the latest details on the first week of March.  And, cold weather fans, stick around to the end of the video, as we get a peek at maybe some substantially colder air in the not too distant future.

 

Just a great day ahead today in between storm systems.  Comfortable.

Two part storm system Wednesday & Thursday.  First we deal with a northward moving warm front, followed by the cold front on Thursday, which could have a potent line of storms ahead of it on Thursday.

After the mid week storm system, a series of nice days through the first weekend in March, with cool days and chilly mornings.

 

Global models indicate an active period of time during the next 10 days, with at least 2 significant storm systems.  Take a look at the GFS temperature guidance for days 9 & 10.  Now that’s some chilly air!

Active Weather Week Ahead – Monday Video

Good Morning!  Heavy rain during the night will continue through the morning commute, before departing by lunch.  Much to talk about on this video.  A mid-week storm system looks fairly potent.  We’ll talk about the potential for severe weather.  Then, as March begins, I’ll show you a trend to cooler, than colder temperatures.  Could be a very active first 2 weeks in the month for storms. But, I think you will like the forecast for the first weekend in March.  A lot of good information this morning on your Monday morning personal weather briefing.

 

Looks like drenching rains through the morning commute, but rain should exit the area well before Lunch.

A mid week storm system has by attention.  SPC says some storms Wednesday night could be a severe Wednesday  night through 6am Thursday AM into extreme NW Alabama.  I’m pretty sure future severe outlooks for Thursday will include a good chunk of our state.  Monitoring.

After the mid week storm system, looks like a nice first weekend of March.

 

Looks like an active first 10 to 16 days ahead with multiple storm systems, and a trend to cooler then colder temps.

 

 

 

 

SUNDAY UPDATE:  Cold Front Brings Rain & Storms

Our 6 day string of 80+ temperatures ended yesterday, with a record breaking 84.  Now today, as expected, a band of rain and thunderstorms is moving through the state, and a secondary surge of rain and storms will soak the state tonight.  Fortunately, the severe weather threat has eased for most of us.  So, hopefully we get the needed rain without much of a  severe weather worry, and maybe some of this pollen will get washed out of the air, for now.

TODAY:  A band of rain and storms will continue sliding southward through the day. There may even be a brief lull in the activity around mid-day.  But,  a secondary disturbance will bring a resurgence to the rain and storms this evening & tonight.  Some of the heavier rainfall totals could occur in the overnight hours.  Temperatures, which were near 70 at dawn will be steady, then fall to the low 60’s by late afternoon. Winds will gust to near 20 mph at times, shifting to the north behind the front this afternoon. Temperatures fall into the 50’s tonight.  Here’s the frontal position at noon.

 

FUTURE RADAR:  The shifting band of mainly rain, but a few thunderstorms moves into south central Alabama this morning and into the rest of the state this evening and especially tonight.  Here’s just a a few future radar snapshots to give you a sense of the coverage.  Our weather app on your phone will show you updated Future Radar throughout the day.

 

STORM PREDICTION CENTER:  Fortunately, the Storm Prediction Center has pulled back on the areal coverage severe weather risk for today/tonight in their latest outlook.  Currently they are indicating a Marginal Severe Risk confined to mostly to Southwest coastal Alabama, mainly along and southwest of a Greenville to Camden line.  Damaging wind would be the main threat, but a spin up tornado or two is not out of the question. However, severe weather is possible by mid to late week.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   Rain and storms are a good bet through about lunchtime Monday.  We get a brief break Tuesday, before another round of showers & storms Wednesday through Thursday.  It’s certainly possible that some of the storms could be severe in the Wednesday night through Thursday timeframe.  Stay tuned.  Will continue to refine and examine that threat as we get closer and details become clearer.  The 80’s are gone, but still some mild 70’s are in the cards.

HOW MUCH RAIN?:  Just focusing on the rain today, tonight and through Monday… looks like some places could see 1 to 1.5”, which would be nice.   That’ll help the pollen problem at least for now.

 “TEMPERATURES SLIDE”:   So the 80’s are now gone.  Look for mostly 70’s this week.  Then, as we get into the early Month of March, which begins Thursday, highs fall back to the 60’s and then, perhaps, 50’s for highs and 30s at night, through the first third of the month.  What happens after that?  Not sure yet.  We’ll take another look at this on your complete video in the morning.  I don’t think winter is over, and I would be shocked if we did not have more freezes.

.  Make sure you have our weather app downloaded, and allow push notifications for severe weather alerts. Your Next complete video will be online tomorrow morning at 4:45AM Have a great Sunday!

-Rich

SATURDAY UPDATE:  80’s Today – Strong Storms Sunday?

Good morning!  We headed back to the low 80’s.  If we tie or break today’s record of 83 (from 2017), it will be the 5th record high in a row.  But, hang on.  Changes are on the way as a front approaches which could bring a severe weather threat to parts of our state tonight, shifting southward on Sunday.

TODAY:   There will be more clouds than sun.  It will be breezy, warm & humid.  Spotty showers can’t be ruled out, especially during the afternoon and evening.  Rain chances are small.  High around 83, which would tie the record.  Low tonight 68.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK UPDATED:  Overnight tonight, a line of strong to severe storms will enter northwest Alabama.  The greatest severe weather risk in our state will be generally north of the I-20/I-59 corridor.  But, a Marginal Severe risk extends as far down to near a Clanton to Selma line by 6AM Sunday.  Then, during the day Sunday and Sunday night, a Marginal Severe Risk shifts to central and south Alabama.  Damaging wind gusts would be the main risk, but brief tornadoes can’t be ruled out.  Keep our Weather App handy.  It will instantly alert you to a watch or warning for your location.

 

FUTURE RADAR:  Here’s just a few sample future radar snapshots from the NAM model for Sunday.  It gives you a general idea how the area of showers and storms will be shifting southward through the day and into Sunday evening.

 

NEXT FEW DAYS:   The 80’s will be gone after today.  Rain and thunderstorms will dominate the forecast Sunday and Monday.  That will be followed by another round of rain and storms by mid week.  Cooler days and nights are ahead.

HOW MUCH RAIN?:  Hopefully, the rain and storms will wash a lot of this pollen out of the air.  Much of central Alabama could see 1 to 2” of rain through Monday, and more rain later next week.  Amounts decrease the farther southeast you go.  Pick out where you live on this map.

FUTURE TREND – “TEMPERATURE SLIDE”:   As we begin the month of March, late next week, our temperature slide will already be in progress.  Don’t look at specific numbers, but the trend on the GFS temperature guidance shows a pronounced downward slide through the first 10 days of March.  People keep asking me, “will there be any more frosts and freezes?”   There almost certainly will.  I’d be shocked if we didn’t have more.

I will have another complete blog update, again, in the morning, or sooner if there are significant changes.   Stay weather aware.  Make sure you have our weather app downloaded and allow push notifications for severe weather alerts.  Have a great weekend!  I’ll keep you updated.

-Rich