March Will Come in Like a Lion – Tuesday Video

Happy Mardi Gras Day,  Fat Tuesday!  Dense fog will slow you down in spots this morning.  Take it easy. We are in-between storm systems today. But, we are looking ahead to a strong cold front which will spark some severe storms across the state Wednesday afternoon/evening, as March comes in “like a lion”.   I’ll have the latest on what to expect and when.  Looks another sharp cool-down for late week and the weekend, before another storm system at the start of next week.   Here’s your Tuesday morning weather briefing with your toast and coffee this morning.

How about this for a rather phenomenal Fat Tuesday – Mardi Gras forecast.  Lower 80’s expected today in Mobile and New Orleans.  Let the good times roll.

The greatest threat for moist of us tomorrow will be damaging wind gusts as a squall line marches across the state.  For many of us the highest threat will be late afternoon into the early evening.   Across the state, the threat begins around Noon in the northwest counties until about 10PM in southeast Alabama.  While the tornado threat is low, it is not zero.  Best chance for a spin up tornado is north of a Demopolis – Clanton line.

Sharply cooler weather ahead for late week and into the weekend.  Lows in the 30’s Friday and Saturday morning.  Here’s a peek at raw model numbers from the US GFS model for the next 16 days.

Download out new weather App if you haven’t already.  It will really come in handy tomorrow during our severe weather threat.  It’s one stop shopping for all the weather you need.  No longer do you need to keep 3 or 4 weather apps on your phone.  It;s free… Search Rich Thomas Weather in the App store.

 

Active Weather Week – Severe Weather Wednesday – Monday Video

Good Morning!  We are in for an active weather week with round 1 today and a second round by mid-week.  It appears March will come in Like a Lion.  Severe weather is a good bet for much of the state on Wednesday.  I’ll walk you through the details of a “bumpy” forecast for the next few days.  More wild temperature swings, too.   It’s all covered in 2 minutes on an important Monday weather briefing.

Very active weather week ahead with Round 1 today.  A band of showers and thunderstorms will cross the state through the afternoon and into SE Alabama this evening.

 

Storm Prediction center updated Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday.  Enhanced risk for much of the northern third of the state.  Slight Risk as far south as Troy.

 

What to expect:

 

Cold front enters the state by mid day Wednesday and reaches south central Alabama by evening.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest across the northern counties.  Lighter amounts farther south.

More wild temperature swings next several days.  Here’s the Euro graph out 10 days.

 

Busy Weather Week – Severe Weather Wednesday

It’s a chilly start to Sunday morning.  Temperatures were in the low to mid 30’s at Dawn.  Should be a great day today, but we’re poised for a “bumpy” ride in the week ahead, with 2 storm systems: the first Monday and the second, stronger storm system Wednesday.  The Wednesday system is expected to be severe.  (details below)

TODAY:  Sunshine.  Nice day.  Not as breezy.  High 65.  Low tonight 44.

MONDAY:  Showers and thunderstorms.  High 70.

A thunderstorm complex enters west Alabama Monday morning and tracks eastward.  The storms will become a little weaker as they reach central & east Alabama.  Storms probably will not reach severe limits.

TUESDAY:  While we will be in between storm systems, we will be in the warm air sector.  High temperatures will soar to near 80.  Can’t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm around.  We’ll call it mostly cloudy, but there will be some sun breaks, too.

WEDNESDAY:  Another very warm day with a high around 80.  Showers and thunderstorms will cross the state.  Some of the storms will be severe by afternoon & evening.  Details on the severe threat below.

SEVERE THREAT:  The Storm Prediction Center has most of the state in a severe weather risk on Wednesday.  The strongest risk is across the northern and northwest counties.  The primary risk will be damaging wind gusts, as a squall line with strong thunderstorms crosses the state ahead of a cold front, especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.  While the tornado threat is relatively low, it is not zero.  A few tornadoes are possible.

Here’s the set-up at Noon Wednesday, as a cold front moves into the state, with the strong line of thunderstorms ahead of it.   There is enough instability for widespread wind damage as the line of storms marches eastward.

Rainfall amounts in the two storm systems will be heaviest across the northern counties.  Most of us will be in the 1 to 2” rainfall potential.

Behind the storm system, temperatures will turn much cooler by late week.  We could be in the upper 30’s by Friday morning.

I’ll have more details in the morning about this active weather week and the developing mid-week severe weather threat on my next video tomorrow morning. My alarm goes off at 2.  Your video will be online by 5.   Have a great Sunday!

-Rich

 

Cooler Weekend – Active Week Ahead: Severe Risk

After Friday’s record shattering high of 83°, today and tomorrow will seem much cooler.  But actually, the high temperature today and tomorrow will be very close to the average high for late February.  The coldest night/morning will be tonight.  Low temperatures will fall into the mid 30’s in spots.  No freeze is expected.  Get ready for a very active week ahead with a parade of disturbances, which will bring multiple bouts of showers & storms.  Severe weather is possible by mid week. (details below)

TODAY:  Sunshine.  High in the low to mid 60’s.  Brisk winds out of the NW at 10-20 will make it seem cooler.  Clear and cold tonight.  Low by morning 36°.

The map shows the cold front which brought spotty showers overnight will reach Tallahasse by Noon.

SUNDAY:  Sunshine and near normal temps. For late February.  High in the mid 60’s.  Low Sunday night 45.  A nice day.

THE WEEK AHEAD:  A series of disturbances will swing through the area.  Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are a good bet.  The best chance of severe storms will be mid week.  More on the severe threat below. Temperatures will rebound.

 

SEVERE THREAT:  The Storm Prediction Center has already included a big chunk of the state in the Wednesday severe weather threat, through Thursday morning at 6AM.  It always raises eyebrows when SPC issues an outlook 5 days ahead of time.  Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.  We will continue to monitor this threat of course.

The global models continue to advertise a potent storm system, with the better threat of severe weather, it would appear, Wednesday evening, through the overnight hours Wednesday night.

 

Record Warmth Today – Sharply Cooler Weekend – Friday Video

Happy Friday! We could shatter a record from the 1800’s today. Record High.  But get ready for a big weekend cool-down.  Cold front arrives late tonight with a line of showers/t’storms.  I’ll show you future radar.  Plus, an update on the wild temperature rollercoaster over the next few days.  Active weather next week as a could of storm systems roll through.  Could the storms be severe? Getting you ready for the weekend, here’s your 2 minute personal weather briefing.  (Bailey makes a brief cameo, too!)

Cold front on the way.  But ahead of the front, record highs today from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.  In Montgomery, there’s an excellent chance we will break the long standing record of 80 from 1890!  That’s rare.

Here’s future radar at 2:00AM Saturday, showing the cold front, with a line of showers and a few thunderstorms around Birmingham to Demopolis heading rapidly southeastward.


Crazy temperature swings next 10 days.  Active weather week next week.  Showers /storms Monday through Wednesday.  Here’s the euro out 10 days.

Still too early to say for sure if the storms will be strong to severe by Tuesday night & Wednesday.  It’s not out of the question.  Here’s a look at the GFS and the Euro model solutions.