FRIDAY Update:  Dangerous Weekend Heat – Risk of Strong Storms

Good morning!   Today’s forecast is tricky. We’ll be dealing Dangerous Heat Indices, easily in the 105 to 110 range.  But, we’ll also be monitoring radar as a thunderstorm complex (MCS) enters NE Alabama and slides southward. Some storms could be severe.  How far will south will the complex advance, and what about the timeline?  It’s tricky.  On Saturday, more extreme heat and more spotty storms.  The daily rain chance get just a tad better on Sunday and Monday.  There should be a generous supply of PM storms on the 4th of July.  Be flexible.  There’s lot of good stuff in the Blog update including the updated Beach outlook. Here’s my brief forecast discussion.

TODAY:  ExtremelyHot and Humid again. Heat Advisory. High near 100. Heat index 105 to 110.  Low tonight 76.

The hi-res models struggle with how to forecast how the MCS behaves and the timing.  The NAM says it falls apart down around Clanton/Alex City.  The WRF says it hangs together.  Timing is different, too.  I bet it hangs together. 

SPC has the Marginal Severe Risk as far south as the US80/I-85 Corridor.  NWS in Birmingham includes ALL of the area in the Marginal Risk.  Probably a good idea. 

SATURDAY:  Extreme Heat continues.  High 101.  Heat index 107 to 115.  Spotty widely scattered locally strong storms.  Low tonight 77.

Another Severe Risk on Saturday…

NEXT FEW DAYS: Rain chances are slightly better Sunday through Monday.  There should be a generous supply of PM storms on the 4th of July.  Be flexible. Highs near 100 Friday and Sunday, upper 90’s on Sunday, and middle 90’s by Monday. 

Storms are likely to be more active on the 4th of July.  Here’s the Euro Tuesday afternoon. 

BEACH FORECAST:   Brutal heat indices next few days.  Stay hydrated. Even the beach sand will be blazing hot.  Widely scattered storms. Better rain chances begin Monday and Tuesday.  PLEASE respect the Flags on the Beach.  Moderate Rip Current Risk.  11 people have lost there lives in just the last two weeks along the Alabama and NW Florida coast due to dangerous rip currents.

TROPICAL UPDATE:   NHC is monitoring an Area to Watch in the Atlantic.   Otherwise, the rest of the Atlantic, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are quiet for now.

Thanks for reading this Blog this morning! This morning we are LIVE on the radio from 6 to 9 on NewsTalk 93.1.  Watch us on TV on CBS 8 and ABC 32.  I’ll have another update for you in the morning.  Have a nice day!


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