Good morning! This new week is starting off dry and very warm. We should be dry through Election Day. But, finally, the risk of showers is returning to the forecast this week, beginning perhaps as early as late Tuesday night and Wednesday. The risk of showers will continue through Saturday, but the daily rain chance will be relatively small. Meanwhile, all eyes on Potential Tropical Storm 18, moving northward through the Caribbean heading for the Gulf. This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael today, and possibly a hurricane before entering the Gulf Wednesday. Right now, NHC has Future Rafael heading toward the northern Gulf coast. Rafael will probably start a weakening trend as it approaches the northern Gulf coast by the end of the week or Saturday. We would certainly like the beneficial rainfall Rafael could bring. But, the potential impact of the tropical system here in Alabama remains unclear. Here’s my brief forecast discussion.
TODAY: Cloudy AM, Limited sunshine. Very Warm. High 83. Normal 74/47. SE wind 6 to 12, gusting t5o 20 mph. Cloudy at times tonight. Low 65.
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NEXT FEW DAYS: Finally, the risk of showers is returning to the forecast this week, beginning perhaps as early as late Tuesday night and Wednesday. The risk of showers will continue through Saturday, but the daily rain chance will be relatively small each day. Highs will be 8o0 or above each day through Friday, with 60’s at night. So what about Future Rafael? How could that system impact our forecast? We would certainly like the beneficial rainfall Rafael could bring. But, the potential impact of the tropical system here in Alabama remains unclear.
This map of potential rainfall looks promising, right? But notice where the smallest rainfall amounts are. There’s a narrow string of minimum amounts through the middle off Alabama, Fingers crossed.
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TROPICAL UPDATE: Potential Tropical Storm 18, is moving northward through the Caribbean heading for the Gulf. This system is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael today, and possibly a hurricane before entering the Gulf Wednesday. Right now, NHC has Future Rafael heading toward the northern Gulf coast. Rafael will probably start a weakening trend as it approaches the northern Gulf coast by the end of the week or Saturday.
Here’s some of the spaghetti models. I have posted the tropical models and the GFS ensembles.
Also monitoring that Area to watch north of Puerto Rico, It has a small chance of development.
Thanks for reading the blog. There will be another complete Blog update and video forecast discussion tomorrow morning. This morning, everything is normal including LIVE on the Radio from 6 to 9AM on NewsTalk 93.1 – WACV. Have a nice day!
–Rich