10:00AM CST: Rafael with winds of 60 mph, is beciming better organized as it moves NW in the Caribbean in the director ion of the Cayman islands where it could be at hurricane strength by this evening before heading toward western Cuba and the Gulf. In the latest NHC Key Messages, check out #3. ” It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.” Stay tuned. #alwx
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Good morning! On this Election Day, we are expecting a breezy, warm day with highs in the low to mid 80’s. Most of \us should stay dry during the day and this evening. I have the rain chance at 15%, increasing to 30% after Midnight. Winds will gust up to 20 mph. The best chance of scattered showers this week will be tomorrow (50%) . The risk of showers will continue each day through Sunday, but the daily rain chance will be relatively small each day. Highs will be mostly in the upper 70’s each day through Sunday, with 60’s at night. Right now, we are not expecting Rafael to impact are forecast. But, we’re watching. Here’s my brief forecast discussion.
TODAY: Limited sunshine. Very Warm. High 83. Normal 74/47. SE wind 10-15, gusting to 20 mph. Daytime rain chance 15% and 30% by late tonight.
NEXT FEW DAYS: The highest probability of scattered showers will be on Wednesday. The risk of showers will continue each day through Sunday, but the daily rain chance will be relatively small each day. Highs will be mostly in the upper 70’s each day through Sunday, with 60’s at night. Right now, we are not expecting Rafael to impact are forecast.
This map of potential rainfall through Sunday. Fingers crossed. We are in an expanding drought and we need every raindrop we can get.
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TROPICAL UPDATE: Rafael is a 60 mph Tropical Storm located about 100 miles south of Jamaica. It is expected to become a Hurricane as it passes close to the Cayman Islands tonight, before crossing western Cuba and into the Gulf. Rafael is expected to eventually begin to weaken a bit as it encounters strong wind shear in the central and northern Gulf. Right now we are not expecting Rafael to impact our forecast.
Here’s some key messages from the National Hurricane Center.
The Hurricane Center is betting Rafael will make a left turn when it reaches the northern Gulf. As you can see here, some of the tropical models do not agree. Many bring Rafael to our neighborhood. We’re watching closely. We don’t trouble from Rafael, but we would like some of Rafael’s raindrops.
But, look at this, The EURO Ensemble models suggest a sharp left turn. The NHC cone shows a compromise,
Rafael is the only feature NHC is tracking in the Atlantic basin.
Thanks for reading the blog. There will be another complete Blog update and video forecast discussion tomorrow morning. This morning, everything is normal including LIVE on the Radio from 6 to 9AM on NewsTalk 93.1 – WACV. Please vote today!
–Rich