MONDAY UPDATE:   Spring-like Temperatures – Shower Risk Return Wednesday

Good morning!  We have some very comfortable temperatures in our forecast today through Wednesday. We’ll be in the low 70’s today, and the middle 70’s Tuesday and Wednesday,  The last in  series of disturbance will move through the state Wednesday in the form of a Cold Front. Widely scattered showers return Wednesday.  Best chance of scattered showers (maybe a thunderstorm) is Wednesday night. Many towns will stay dry. .Sunshine and cooler Thursday through Saturday.  We’ll be in the low 30’s by Saturday AM. Here’s my brief forecast discussion

TODAY:  Limited sunshine.  Mostly cloudy.  Very mild for December.  High 72. Southeast wind 6 to 12.  Cloudy tonight.  Rain chances, in our part of the state, about 10%.  (most showers stay north).  Mild tonight.  Low 53.

Here’s the set-up at Midnight tonight.  The best chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be north of I-20 along a frobtal system.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Very mild Tuesday. Patchy dense fog early.   Sun/cloud mix.  High Tuesday and Wednesday mid 70’s. Widely  Scattered showers return Wednesday.  Slightly better chance of scattered showers (maybe a thunderstorm) can be expected Wednesday night ahead of a Cold Front.  Sunshine and cooler Thursday through Saturday.  We’ll be in the low 30’s by Saturday AM, on the first official day of Winter. The Winter solstice.  The first weekend of Winter wil be rather chilly, indeed.

Here’s the 10 day Temp trend.  Very Mild to warm through Wednesday.  Cooler late week. Christmas week looks chilly.  A little milder Christmas day.   

CHRISTMAS FORECAST?:  It’s still a difficult forecast, because the global models do not agree. The GFS is DRY.  The Euro shows a good chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms.

  For now, I’ll say:  scattered showers. AM low 43. PM high near 62.  Low Christmas night 48. By the way, the global models advertise another storm system on Friday December 27th.  

Here’s the EURO and GFS snapshots at Noon Christmas.  I tend to lean toward the Euro.  The jury is still out.

Here’s Expected rainfall this week. Notice: the southern half of the state will not see much rain.

 

Thanks for reading the Blog this morning. Sorry for the late post. I’m back from Punta Cana. I got back very late Sunday night   Tomorrow, Tuesday, everything is back to normal.  Live on the radio 6 to 9 on WACV.  And there will be a forecast discussion video and blog update in the 4 o’clock hour.  Have a great day!

–Rich

· · ·