Tuesday Winter Storm: New Potential Significant Impact Area
(5:00 PM – 1/18/25)
There’s a new escalation in the looming threat of A Significant High Impact Winter Storm Tuesday which will cause significant and potentially almost impossible travel across parts of central and south Alabama. On this map, the purple area, along and south of an Auburn Selma line, including the US80/I-85 Corridor is now in a Significant Impact Area designation. Dangerous travel conditions expected. “Closures and disruption to infrastructures will occur.” We are expecting an increasing threat of possibly significant accumulating snow. Exact details are still sketchy 3+ days out, but evidence is growing. I will have another full Blog Update in the 4 o’clock hour in the morning. There will also be a LIVE Chat tomorrow morning at 10:30, This is your day to get ready for the extreme cold. Sharply colder tomorrow and tomorrow night.
10:00AM NEW FORECAST GRAPHICS ON POTENTIAL TUESDAY SNOWFALL AND IMPACTS:
IIMPACTS Notice the darker blue area south of a Clanton Demopolis line. This is where there could be significant travel problems on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Just a hunch, but this is where we could see a Winter Storm Watch within about 36-48 hours before the event, with the potential of a winter weather advisory in the lighter blue area farther north.
PROJECTED POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION: Up to an inch as far north as Birmingham. Closer to 2″ near Montgomery. Possibly higher 3-4″ amounts from about Troy to Eufaula. Evergreen close to 3″ as well. These numbers will be refined closer to the event. Geez even Mobile 3.2″ Crazy.
EARLY MORNING UPDATE
Good Morning! Periods of showers will continue for much of the day today as a significant Cold Front Approaches. Showers will taper off by tonight. Sunday will SHARPLY Colder. Today’s high may reach 71. Sunday’s high by Noon may reach 45, followed by a Severe Temperature plunge on gusty Northwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph. Sunday night/Monday AM will be bitterly cold. Low in the upper teens, but Wind Chill may fall to single digits. Then, a Gulf Low will bring an increasing risk of accumulating snow, especially along and south of I-85. Confidence is growing that a few inches of snow could cause significant travel problems, Some of the heaviest snow could be from about Troy/Greenville/Eufuala southward. Extremely COLD Artic air will dominate next week with highs in the 30’s and overnight lows in the upper teens and lower 20’s. Here’s my brief video forecast discussion,
TODAY: Periods of rain especially morning and through the afternoon. Can’t rule out some thunder. High near 71. Showers taper off by evening. Turning colder and becoming windy overnight. Low 39.
SUNDAY: SHARPLY COLDER. Sunday’s high by Noon may reach 45, followed by a Severe Temperature plunge on gusty Northwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph. Sunday night/Monday AM will be bitterly cold. Low in the upper teens, but Wind Chill may fall to single digits.
NEXT FEW DAYS:
WINTER ASSUALT AHEAD:
No doubt about it. The major headline continues to be of the extent of the Arctic Cold Blast that will dominate nearly all of next week.Lows will be in the upper teens and low 20’s. But, the wind chill numbers will be dangerously low especially Monday and Tuesday especially.
Here’s a snapshot of Tuesday morning showing an important Low Pressure system developing in the SW Gulf, tracking eastward. This is the classic set-up for a Winter Storm for Alabama. It’s ironic that the heaviest snow this time will NOT be in north Alabama, but rather across the Southern part of our state, where the risk of significant snow accumulation is growing.
Here’s the GFS and Euro Model Snapshots on Tuesday PM. The EURO paints the threat of light now as far north as I-20. Heavier snow begins along and south of I-85. The GFS has introduced a threat of an Icy mix across extreme south Alabama. The GFS is an outlier for now.
As Far as potential accumulation, here’s a sample of some of the available model products. First, here’s the National Model Blend. It advertises possible 2+” accumulation as far north as a Montgomery/Auburn line.
The GFS Ensembles are about the same and NMB. Similar is accumulation amounts. The EURO Ensembles is hardier. It shows potential 3” amounts as far north as Montgomery and heavier amounts from Troy southward.
Many of you will find this NWS Detailed Technical Forecast discussion very interesting with lots of extremely good information.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=BMX
Everybody is talking about the increasing odds of accumulating snow Tuesday. But, a HUGE part of this Winter Weather story involves the radical Temperature Crash we are about to experience as extreme Arctic Cold air funnels into Alabama. This graphic says it all. We will be around 70 today. By Dawn Monday we may see single digits wind chills. By Thursday morning, we’ll bottom out around 17. Today is the day for you to take all the cold weather precautions needed. An extreme dose of Winter is fast approaching.
Thanks for reading this special blog update. There will be additional updates as more information becomes available. There will be another FULL Blog Update early tomorrow morning. TODAY is the day for you to start making preparation for the Extreme Cold.
–Rich