FRIGID BLAST & WINTRY MIX AHEAD

There have been a few developments since our last update.  First and foremost, it appears the time table for precipitation to begin in the state is much faster.  In Central and South Alabama, showers being overnight Thursday with periods of rain Friday.  Second, the temperatures are trending colder on the models.  Looks like that the highest snowfall potential is along the I-20 corridor.  National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for 14 north central Alabama counties, including Birmingham, Anniston and Gadsden.  Within the watch area, 2-3” snowfall amounts are possible between Friday morning and Saturday morning.  Farther south, a minor snow/sleet accumulation, perhaps an inch or less, as far south as Alex City, Clanton & Demopolois.  The all snow band will shift southward overnight Friday night, as the cold air deepens in the wee hours of Friday night/Saturday AM, and could very well reach a Linden-Montgomery-Auburn line by 3AM Saturday, with  the rain/sleet mixture as far south as Troy.  Any accumulation of wintry precipitation should be mostly done by 6AM Saturday.  This graphic from NWS tells the story very well.  We agree with this scenario.

 

MY FORECAST:  Showers begin after Midnight Thursday.  Overnight low 39. Friday will be a cold/raw day with periods of rain.  High in the low 40’s  Rain likely Friday night, becoming mixed with a little sleet & snow, in the overnight hours, possibly briefly changing to snow before ending Saturday morning.  No accumulation expected in the Metro Montgomery area.  Low by Saturday morning, close to 30.  Partial sunshine by Saturday afternoon.  Hi 42.  Bitter cold Saturday night.  Low by Sunday morning 24, winch chill factor 14.  High Sunday only 45. Mid 20’s again Monday morning.

Here’s a look at the GFS temperature plot for the next 16 days:

Winter storm Watch counties: from Friday AM till Saturday AM.

There will be much more on this developing situation on my Thursday morning video, which will be posted at or before 5.  Have a good night!   –Rich